2019 World Championships Men’s Top 10 Predictions

Michael Norman & Fred Kerley figure to duke it out for 400 gold. (BILL LEUNG)

OUR INTERNATIONAL PANEL has crunched all the data, and the overall results say that the U.S. men will enjoy a better meet than the one they had in London 2 years ago. The number of overall medals creeps up slightly, from 13 to 15, and the number of golds takes a big jump, from 3 to 7.

If a nation is listed with 4 entries that means it has a Wild Card in that event. Any Americans who don’t make the top 10 are listed in alphabetical order at the end of the event. The right-hand column is the athlete’s PR and the year in which it was made (except in the relays, where the mark is the best from this year or last).

Chart updated as of September 26 (this is the final update).

100 METERS
•Coleman hasn’t run a race since the USATF Championships at the end of July. Does he need a first-round rust-buster?… De Grasse is showing signs of returning to his Rio ’16 form… Defending champ Gatlin, 37, tweaked his left hamstring at the start of the month. Although his manager said it wasn’t serious he’s downgraded from an earlier status as podium favorite… Xie looks out of place with a PR not in the 9s, but he has been claiming good wins over faster people.
1. Christian Coleman USA 9.79 (’18)
2. Andre De Grasse Canada 9.91 (’16)
3. Akani Simbine South Africa 9.89 (’16)
4. Justin Gatlin USA 9.74 (’15)
5. Yohan Blake Jamaica 9.69 (’12)
6. Zhenye Xie China 10.01 (’19)
7. Mike Rodgers USA 9.85 (’11)
8. Arthur Cissé Côte d’Ivoire 9.93 (’19)
9. Aaron Brown Canada 9.96 (’19)
10. Adam Gemili Great Britain 9.97 (’15)
Other American:
Christopher Belcher 9.93 (’17)
200 METERS
•Only Michael Johnson (19.32 in ’96) stands higher on the all-time U.S. list than Lyles. We expect a new PR from Lyles, but will it be fast enough to claim the American Record. Look at his stunning sequence of times in finals this year: 19.72, 19.50, 19.78, 19.65, 19.74… Lyles gave up his 100 spot to focus here, but Coleman & De Grasse will be doubling back… Defending champ Guliyev will have trouble making it to the podium.… Oduduru will be dangerous if he returns to his NCAA form.
1. Noah Lyles USA 19.50 (’19)
2. Christian Coleman USA 19.85 (’17)
3. Andre De Grasse Canada 19.80 (’16)
4. Ramil Guliyev Turkey 19.76 (’18)
5. Alex Quiñónes Ecuador 19.87 (’19)
6. Zhenye Xie China 19.88 (’19)
7. Adam Gemili Great Britain 19.97 (’16)
8. Aaron Brown Canada 19.95 (’19)
9. Kenny Bednarek USA 19.82(A) (’19)
10. Divine Oduduru Nigeria 19.73 (’19)
Other American:
Rodney Rowe 20.12 (’19)
400 METERS
•The battle for gold between Norman and Kerley should be titanic, with ’17 silver medalist Gardiner not to be taken lightly… Kerley leads the lifetime series with Norman 3–2, but list leader Norman has won 2 of their 3 meetings this year. Norman got a Wild Card by winning the DL Final.  They rate Nos. =4 & 7 on the all-time world list.
1. Michael Norman USA 43.45 (’19)
2. Fred Kerley USA 43.64 (’19)
3. Steven Gardiner Bahamas 43.87 (’18)
4. Akeem Bloomfield Jamaica 43.94 (’18)
5. Kirani James Grenada 43.74 (’14)
6. Abbas Abubaker Bahrain 44.90 (’19)
7. Anthony Zambrano Colombia 44.68 (’19)
8. Demish Gaye Jamaica 44.55 (’17)
9. Machel Cedenio Trinidad 44.01 (’16)
10. Matthew Hudson-Smith Great Britain 44.48 (’16)
Other Americans:
Vernon Norwood 44.40 (’19)
Nathan Strother 44.29 (’19)
800 METERS
•Brazier’s Wottle-like close to win the Diamond League title over Amos casts him in the role of favorite. Amos produced the year’s fastest time, 1:41.89 in Monaco, but the American wasn’t in that race and had earlier beaten Amos in Rome… McBride was 3rd in both the Rome and Zürich races… We only have Kszczot at No. 9, but the 2-time silver medalist is a consummate tactician and shouldn’t be ignored… No American has ever won this event.
1. Donavan Brazier USA 1:42.70 (’19)
2. Nijel Amos Botswana 1:41.73 (’12)
3. Brandon McBride Canada 1:43.20 (’18)
4. Ferguson Cheruiyot Kenya 1:42.54 (’19)
5. Emmanuel Korir Kenya 1:42.05 (’18)
6. Clayton Murphy USA 1:42.93 (’16)
7. Amel Tuka Bosnia 1:42.51 (’15)
8. Wesley Vázquez Puerto Rico 1:44.40 (’19)
9. Adam Kszczot Poland 1:43.30 (’11)
10. Marco Arop Canada 1:44.25 (’19)
Other Americans:
Bryce Hoppel 1:44.41 (’19)
Brannon Kidder 1:45.39 (’19)
1500 METERS
•Reigning champ Elijah Manangoi had to withdraw with a problematic hamstring, but Cheruiyot would. have been the favorite in any case. The yearly world leader at 3:28.77, he also had a 3:29.77 to claim the season’s only sub-3:30 times. The ’17 silver medalist comes to town on a 6-race win streak that includes 5 Diamond League times. He and brother Filip are slated to be doubling back from the 5000… Among savvy milers, they don’t come much better than Centrowitz, who already owns WC silver (’13) & bronze (’11) to go with his Rio Olympic gold.
1. Timothy Cheruiyot Kenya 3:28.41 (’18)
2. Jakob Ingebrigtsen Norway 3:30.16 (’19)
3. Ronald Musagala Uganda 3:30.58 (’19)
4. Ayanleh Souleiman Djibouti 3:29.58 (’14)
5. Filip Ingebrigtsen Norway 3:30.01 (’18)
6. George Manangoi Kenya 3:31.49 (’19)
7. Matthew Centrowitz USA 3:30.40 (’15)
8. Samuel Tefera Ethiopia 3:31.04 (’19)
9. Taoufik Makhloufi Algeria 3:28.75 (’15)
10. Ronald Kwemoi Kenya 3:28.81 (’14)
Other Americans:
Craig Engels 3:34.04 (’19)
Ben Blankenship 3:34.26 (’16)
STEEPLE
•Defending champ Kipruto has been nursing a foot injury and has only an 8:13 seasonal best, but he says, “I know myself better than anybody else. It has not been an easy season for me, but what I can promise is that I will hit form when it matters most.” So he gets mention down at No. 9, while ’17’s silver medalist, El Bakkali, ascends to the top… Kigen was hot in the early season, but slowed in the second half… DL winner Wale only just recently turned 19… American Record holder Evan Jager, a finalist in the last 3 editions of the meet, is out with a stress fracture in a foot.
1. Soufiane El Bakkali Morocco 7:58.15 (’18)
2. Benjamin Kigen Kenya 8:05.12 (’19)
3. Getnet Wale Ethiopia 8:05.51 (’19)
4. Lamecha Girma Ethiopia 8:08.18 (’19)
5. Hilary Bor USA 8:08.41 (’19)
6. Chala Beyo Ethiopia 8:06.48 (’19)
7. Abraham Kibiwott Kenya 8:05.72 (’19)
8. Fernando Carro Spain 8:05.69 (’19)
9. Conseslus Kipruto Kenya 8:00.12 (’16)
10. Leonard Bett Kenya 8:08.61 (’19)
Other Americans:
Andy Bayer 8:14.46 (’17)
Stanley Kebenei 8:08.30 (’17)

 

5000 METERS
•The Ethiopians are hard to sort out (4 of them because of Edris’s defending champ Wild Card). Barega didn’t win any of his 4 races, but was always around 13:00 (13:04, 12:53, 13:01, 12:59) and had 3 DL runner-up finishes. Yearly list leader Haile had a trio of sub-13:00s and a DL win but Barega gets the nod based on more big-time international experience… Ahmed (10,000) and Ingebrigtsen (1500) will be running with future races to come… Look for American leader Chelimo to be mixing it up in the final homestretch.
1. Selemon Barega Ethiopia 12:43.02 (’18)
2. Telahun Haile Ethiopia 12:52.98 (’19)
3. Moh Ahmed Canada 12:54.92 (’19)
4. Jakob Ingebrigtsen Norway 13:02.03 (’19)
5. Nicholas Kimeli Kenya 12:57.90 (’19)
6. Paul Chelimo USA 12:57.55 (’18)
7. Abadi Hadis Ethiopia 12:56.27 (’18)
8. Muktar Edris Ethiopia 12:54.83 (’14)
9. Birhanu Balew Bahrain 12:56.26 (’19)
10. Stewart McSweyn Australia 13:05.63 (’19)
Other Americans:
Hassan Mead 13:02.80 (’14)
Ben True 13:02.74 (’14)
10,000 METERS
•The ’17 silver medalist in the 10K, Cheptegei hasn’t yet run a track 10K this year, but added the World XC title to his résumé in March and showed oval savvy with a PR 12:57.41 win in the DL Final 5000… Gebrhiwet’s PR gave him the yearly world lead and he has a 27:01.02 (also a PR at the time) to back it up. He won 5K medals in both ’13 (silver) & ’15 (bronze)… The 2-time reigning World Indoor 3000 champ, Kejelcha got his 10K PR in his July debut… Lomong is no stranger to big finals across a variety of events, having run a WC 1500, WIC 3000 and OG 5000.
1. Joshua Cheptegei Uganda 26:49.64 (’17)
2. Yomif Kejelcha Ethiopia 26:49.99 (’19)
3. Hagos Gebrhiwet Ethiopia 26:48.95 (’19)
4. Lopez Lomong USA 27:30.06 (’19)
5. Rhonex Kipruto Kenya 26:50.16 (’19)
6. Moh Ahmed Canada 27:02.35 (’17)
7. Selemon Barega Ethiopia 26:49.46 (’19)
or Anduamiak Belehu Ethiopia 26:53.15 (’19)
8. Jacob Kiplimo Uganda 27:26.68 (’16)
9. Rogers Kwemoi Kenya 27:25.23 (’16)
10. Aron Kifle Eritrea 27:09.92 (’17)
Other Americans:
Shadrack Kipchirchir 27:07.55 (’17)
Leonard Korir 27:34.01 (’19)
110 HURDLES
•Give a narrow-narrow edge to DL champ Ortega, who is 2–1 over McLeod in their 3 meetings this year. Reigning Olympic/world champ McLeod wasn’t in the DL Final, but got a seasonal best 13.07 in his last pre-Doha race, saying, “I did it! Like my coach told me, I just got out and took control. Everything was good—the start, the finish and every hurdle. You could say it was a perfect race.” He will need more than a 13.07—more like a sub-13—to win Doha gold… Big question I: was the long collegiate season too much for Roberts and yearly list leader Holloway? Big question II: will reigning world No. 1 Shubenkov be recovered from his Rabat DL crash in time?
1. Orlando Ortega Spain 12.94 (’15)
2. Omar McLeod Jamaica 12.90 (’17)
3. Daniel Roberts USA 13.00 (’19)
4. Sergey Shubenkov Russia 12.92 (’18)
5. Grant Holloway USA 12.98 (’19)
6. Wenjun Xie China 13.17 (’19)
7. Gabriel Constantino Brazil 13.18 (’19)
8. Devon Allen USA 13.03 (’16)
9. Andy Pozzi Great Britain 13.14 (’17)
10. Pascal Martinot-Lagarde France 12.95 (’14)
400 HURDLES
•Defending champ Warholm’s 48.35 winner in ’17 was the slowest in meet history, but not only is the Norwegian likely to break 48 this time out, the 47-second barrier is also in grave danger. Indeed, this could be the event most likely to see a new World Record in Doha. Indeed, Warholm could break Kevin Young’s longstanding 46.78 from the ’92 Olympics and not win. He could be beaten by Benjamin and/or Samba (who is still recovering from injury… Nobody appears likely to challenge the big 3.
1. Karsten Warholm Norway 46.92 (’19)
2. Rai Benjamin USA 46.98 (’19)
3. Abderrahmane Samba Qatar 46.98 (’18)
4. Ludvy Vaillant France 48.30 (’19)
5. Kyron McMaster British Virgin Islands 47.54 (’18)
6. Yasmani Copello Turkey 47.81 (’18)
7. TJ Holmes USA 48.30 (’18)
8. Alison Dos Santos Brazil 48.45 (’19)
9. Kemar Mowatt Jamaica 48.49 (’17)
10. Thomas Barr Ireland 47.97 (’16)
Other American:
Amere Lattin 48.66 (’19)
MARATHON
•As always, the race will be pretty much devoid of big names, given the proximity to the big fall 26-milers… Ethiopia is always marathon-strong, and is favored for a 1–2 here, but the East African powerhouse actually hasn’t had a winner since ’01. Geremew’s PR at London in April made him the fastest Ethiopian ever, with Wasihun just 21 seconds behind… Look for defending champ Kirui to break up a Kenyan medal sweep… At the risk of stating the obvious, handling the heat will obviously be the key here. Perhaps there will be lessons to be learned from the earlier women’s race.
1. Mosinet Geremew Ethiopia 2:02:55 (’19)
2. Mule Wasihun Ethiopia 2:03:16 (’19)
3. Geoffrey Kirui Kenya 2:06:27 (’16)
4. Lelisa Desisa Ethiopia 2:04:45 (’13)
or Tola Shura Ethiopia 2:04:49 (’18)
5. Amos Kipruto Kenya 2:05:43 (’17)
6. Laban Korir Kenya 2:05:54 (’16)
7. Kaan Kigen Özbilen Turkey 2:05:27 (’19)
8. Paul Lonyangata Kenya 2:06:10 (’17)
9. Tadesse Abraham Switzerland 2:06:40 (’16)
10. Stephen Mokoka South Africa 2:07:40 (’15)
The Americans:
Shadrack Biwott 2:12:01 (’16)
Andrew Epperson 2:13:11 (’19)
Elkanah Kibet 2:11:31 (’15)
20K WALK
•The yearly list is dominated by Japanese times from the Asian Championships, but only list leader Yamanishi, who turned in history’s No. 3 time, is given a nod here. He confirmed his status as the favorite with a 4-second win over Stano at the important La Coruña stop on the Walk Challenge circuit. That Spanish race provides the best template for sorting out this year’s top performers… Defending champ Eider Arévalo of Colombia hasn’t broken 1:21 this year… The U.S. hasn’t had a qualifier since ’11.
1. Toshikazu Yamanishi Japan 1:17:15 (’19)
2. Massimo Stano Italy 1:17:45 (’19)
3. Perseus Karlström Sweden 1:18:07 (’19)
4. Vasiliy Mizinov Russia 1:18:41 (’19)
5. Christopher Linke Germany 1:18:42 (’19)
6. Kaihua Wang China 1:17:54 (’17)
7. Caio Bonfim Brazil 1:18:47 (’19)
8. Diego García Spain 1:18:58 (’19)
9. Zelin Cai China 1:19:26 (’16)
10. Tom Bosworth Great Britain 1:19:38 (’18)
No qualified Americans
50K WALK
•There isn’t a lot of ’19 data to go on, with basically everybody having only a single 50 (frequently at home) or no 50s at all. WR holder/defending champ Diniz claimed the yearly list lead with a 3:37:43 that’s better than anybody else’s PR, so he’s the logical favorite… Wang and Suzuki each PRed in winning a home race, while Olympic champ Tóth has no races at any distance… Now, about that heat…
1. Yohann Diniz France 3:33:12 (’17)
2. Qin Wang China 3:38:02 (’19)
3. Yusuke Suzuki Japan 3:39:07 (’19)
4. Matej Tóth Slovakia 3:40:58 (’16)
5. Håvard Haukenes Norway 3:42:50 (’19)
6. Tomohiro Noda Japan 3:39:47 (’19)
7. Wenbin Niu China 3:41:04 (’19)
8. Dzmitry Dziubin Belarus 3:45:51 (’19)
9. Yadong Luo China 3:41:15 (’19)
10. Hayato Katsuki Japan 3:44:31 (’18)
No qualified Americans
4 x 100 RELAY
•As is frequently the case, the U.S. has the best collection of individuals, but with every major championships that goes by there are doubts about their ability to get the stick safely around. The coaching staff has given no indications of who the preferred foursome will be, but a combo—in alpha order—of Christian Coleman, Justin Gatlin, Noah Lyles & Mike Rodgers would be a fearsome foursome indeed. Christopher Belcher and Cravon Gillespie are also in the pool… Nonetheless, we’re taking the conservative route, preferring well-drilled teams from defending champ Britain and Japan for the top two spots… Jamaica’s coach has been lamenting about a lack of practice for his squad.
1. Great Britain 37.60 (’19)
2. Japan 37.78 (’19)
3. USA 38.07 (’19)
4. Jamaica 38.35 (’18)
5. Brazil 38.01 (’19)
6. Netherlands 37.99 (’19)
7. Turkey 37.98 (’18)
8. China 38.16 (’19)
9. Canada 38.26 (’19)
10. Ghana 38.30 (’19)
4 x 400 RELAY
•Every few years the U.S. gets upset here (see London ’17), but with the Michael Norman/Fred Kerley axis in place, this doesn’t project as one of them. The rest of 400 squad is Nathan Strother and Vernon Norwood, with Michael Cherry and Wil London added to the pool. And then there’s another big weapon waiting to be used: a 43.6r performer in the person of long hurdler Rai Benjamin… Jamaica, with its top 2 projected to make the 400 final, looks like the biggest challenger… It would be great for host Qatar if its four best are all healthy and can sneak into the meet-closing finale.
1. United States 2:59.30(A) (’19)
2. Jamaica 3:00.99(A) (’19)
3. Botswana 3:01.78 (’18)
4. South Africa 3:02.13(A) (’19)
5. Great Britain 3:00.36 (’18)
6. Trinidad 3:00.81 (’19)
7. Colombia 3:01.41 (’19)
8. Italy 3:02.04 (’19)
9. India 3:01.85 (’18)
10. Belgium 2:59.47 (’18)
HIGH JUMP
•It’s like gravity is selectively picking on men’s high jumpers this year, as high clearances are turning out to be hard to make, and even harder to make consistently. So we give a slight edge to outdoor world leader Nedasekau, who scored his PR mark in the Europe-U.S. dual meet, where he had some home-crowd help… Barshim hasn’t been himself since ankle surgery in the summer of ’18, but he’ll get home-crowd and we figure that’ll be enough to put him on the podium… Capable of a big surprise despite not making our Top 10: Barshim’s great rival Bogdan Bondarenko, a 7-11¼ (2.42) performer back in ’14.
1. Maksim Nedasekau Belarus 2.35 | 7-8½ (’19)
2. Ilya Ivanyuk Russia 2.33 | 7-7¾ (’19)
3. Mutaz Barshim Qatar 2.43 | 7-11½ (’14)
4. Mikhail Akimenko Russia 2.33 | 7-7¾ (’19)
5. Andrii Protsenko Ukraine 2.40 | 7-10½ (’14)
6. Brandon Starc Australia 2.36 | 7-8¾ (’18)
7. Yu Wang China 2.34 | 7-8 (’19)
8. Michael Mason Canada 2.33 | 7-7¾ (’15)
9. Majed El Dein Ghazal Syria 2.36 | 7-8¾ (’16)
10. Tihomir Ivanov Bulgaria 2.31 | 7-7 (’17)
The Americans:
Keenon Laine 2.28 | 7-5¾ (’19)
Shelby McEwen 2.31 | 7-7 (’19)
Jeron Robinson 2.31 | 7-7 (’18)
Sam Kendricks is a narrow favorite to defend his pole vault title. (KIRBY LEE/IMAGE OF SPORT)
POLE VAULT
•One of the greatest things about vaulting is that the big names don’t make a habit of ducking each other. Kendricks and Duplantis have already met 6 times this year, splitting the series 3-3. Kendricks and Lisek have gone head-to-head 16 (!) times, the American ahead 11–5. Duplantis and Lisek have 7 matchups, the Swede up 4–3. All three look ready for the 6.00 (19-8¼) barrier. Nobody has ever jumped 6.00 or higher at the Worlds and lost.
1. Sam Kendricks USA 6.06 | 19-10½ (’19)
2. Mondo Duplantis Sweden 6.05 | 19-10¼ (’18)
3. Piotr Lisek Poland 6.02 | 19-9 (’19)
4. Paweł Wojciechowski Poland 5.93 | 19-5½ (’17)
5. Cole Walsh USA 5.83 | 19-1½ (’19)
6. Thiago Braz Brazil 6.03 | 19-9¼ (’16)
7. Renaud Lavillenie France 6.16 | 20-2½ (’14)
8. Valentin Lavillenie France 5.82 | 19-1 (’19)
9. Raphael Holzdeppe Germany 5.94 | 19-5¾ (’15)
10. Augusto Dutra Brazil 5.82 | 19-1 (’13)
Other Americans:
Zach Bradford 5.77 | 18-11 (’19)
KC Lightfoot 5.76 |18-10¾ (’19)
LONG JUMP
•Echevarría heads the yearly list with a mark just 2cm off his lifetime best, but perhaps his most notable jump of the campaign was his wind-aided 29-3¼ (8.92) in March. That was the farthest all-conditions jump in the world in 23 years. He missed most of July, but bounced back to win Pan-Am gold and the DL title, the latter with a mark just 3cm off his PR. He sports a 7-meet winning streak over defending champ Manyonga.
1. Juan Miguel Echevarría Cuba 8.68 | 28-5¾ (’18)
2. Luvo Manyonga South Africa 8.65 | 28-4½(A) (’18)
3. Tajay Gayle Jamaica 8.32 | 27-3¾ (’19)
4. Ruswahl Samaai South Africa 8.49 | 27-10¼(A) (’17)
5. Miltiádis Tentóglou Greece 8.38 | 27-6 (’19)
6. Jianan Wang China 8.47 | 27-9½(A) (’18)
7. Yaoguang Zhang China 8.29 | 27-2½(A) (’18)
8. Thobias Montler Sweden 8.22 | 26-11¾ (’19)
9. Changzhou Huang China 8.28 | 27-2 (’17)
10. Shontaro Shiroyama Japan 8.40 | 27-8¾ (’19)
The Americans:
Jeff Henderson 8.52 | 27-11½ (’15)
Trumaine Jefferson 8.18 | 26-10 (’19)
Steffin McCarter 8.25 | 27-¾ (’19)
TRIPLE JUMP
•Friendly rivals Taylor & Claye have about split their 50-odd lifetime meetings, but when it comes to the major international championships Taylor has the edge. He’s the 2-time time defending champion here and retains the favorite’s role even though Claye’s new PR stands as the yearly leader… Craddock, like the Big 2 a Florida alum, has also PRed this year, setting up the possibility of a Team USA medal sweep. He has beaten Pichardo—now 4 years removed from his PR—in both their ’19 meetings… With Taylor having a Wild Card, Scott gives the U.S. a strong fourth entrant.
1. Christian Taylor USA 18.21 | 59-9 (’15)
2. Will Claye USA 18.14 | 59-6¼ (’19)
3. Omar Craddock USA 17.68 | 58-¼ (’19)
4. Pedro Pablo Pichardo Portugal 18.08 | 59-4 (’15)
5. Donald Scott USA 17.43 | 57-2¼ (’19)
6. Fabrice Zango Hugues Burundi 17.58 | 57-8¼ (’19)
7. Ruiting Wu China 17.47 | 57-3¾ (’19)
8. Jordan A. Díaz Cuba 17.49 | 57-¼ (’19)
9. Yaming Zhu China 17.40 | 57-1 (’19)
10. Necati Er Turkey 17.37 | 57-0 (’19)
SHOT
•When the year began this looked like a continuation of the great Walsh/Crouser rivalry and while we expect them to punch out no end of great marks, Romani has emerged as a real threat as well, joining the 74-foot club… Narrow edge to defending champ Walsh for his overall Diamond League win, although it should be noted that he has only 6 meets over 22m this year while Olympic champ Crouser can claim 11… Bukowiecki is coming on strong with a sequence of late-season PRs and could be timing it just right… And that’s not all! Don’t forget ’17 winner Kovacs or ’17 DL champ Darrell Hill… This could rate as the event of the meet.
1. Tom Walsh New Zealand 22.67 | 74-4½ (’18)
2. Ryan Crouser USA 22.74 | 74-7¼ (’19)
3. Darlan Romani Brazil 22.61 | 74-2¼ (’19)
4. Konrad Bukowiecki Poland 22.25 | 73-0 (’19)
5. Darrell Hill USA 22.44 | 73-7½ (’17)
6. Michał Haratyk Poland 22.32 | 73-2¾ (’19)
7. Joe Kovacs USA 22.57 | 74-¾ (’17)
8. Tomáš Staněk Czech Republic 22.17 | 72-9 (’18)
9. Bob Bertemes Luxembourg 22.22 | 72-10¾ (’19)
10. Jacko Gill New Zealand 21.47 | 70-5¼ (’19)
The only triple jumper with 3 WC golds, Christian Taylor is going for a record No. 4. (KIRBY LEE/IMAGE OF SPORT)
DISCUS
•’17 silver medalist Ståhl has beaten Dacres in their last 6 meetings this year. Similarly, he has beaten defending champ Gudžius in all 4 of their meetings. And Dacres is 4–0 over Gudžius, so that sorts out their order nicely. Now if only previous meetings were a perfect predictor… On the U.S. side, national champ has beaten ’17 WC bronze medalist Finley in both their meetings this year.
1. Daniel Ståhl Sweden 71.86 | 235-9 (’19)
2. Fedrick Dacres Jamaica 68.73 | 225-6 (13)
3. Andrius Gudžius Lithuania 69.59 | 228-3 (’18)
4. Lukas Weißhaidinger Austria 68.98 | 226-4 (’18)
5. Alin Alexandru Firfirica Romania 67.32 | 220-10 (’19)
6. Piotr Małachowski Poland 71.84 | 235-8 (’13)
7. Ehsan Hadidi Iran 69.32 | 227-5 (’08)
8. Ola Stunes Isene Norway 67.78 | 222-4 (’19)
9. Traves Smikle Jamaica 67.72 | 222-2 (’18)
10. Sam Mattis USA 67.45 | 221-3 (’16)
Other Americans:
Mason Finley 68.03 | 223-2 (’17)
Brian Williams 65.76 | 215-9 (’19)
HAMMER
•There’s lots of data that can be used to sort out the Poles, since they have met no fewer than 87 (!) times since ’09, with Fajdek ahead 74–13. Nowicki tops this year’s world list, but in their 10 meetings Fajdek is ahead 7–3, so give the nod to the 3-time defending champion. Nowicki looks to upgrade his bronze-medal status of the last two WCs. Nobody else appears to be in their class.
1. Paweł Fajdek Poland 83.93 | 275-4 (’15)
2. Wojciech Nowicki Poland 81.85 | 268-6 (’18)
3. Bence Halász Hungary 79.57 | 261-0 (’18)
4. Quentin Bigot France 78.58 | 257-9 (’14)
5. Nick Miller Great Britain 80.26 | 263-4 (’18)
6. Mihaíl Anastasákis Greece 77.52 | 254-4 (’17)
7. Denis Lukyanov Russia 79.61 | 261-2 (’13)
8. Javier Cienfuegos Spain 79.38 | 260-5 (’19)
9. Eivind Henriksen Norway 78.25 | 256-5 (’19)
10. Hleb Dudarau Belarus 78.29 | 256-10 (’19)
The Americans:
Daniel Haugh 76.44 | 250-9 (’19)
Conor McCullough 78.14 | 256-4 (’19)
Rudy Winkler 76.76 | 251-10 (’16)
JAVELIN
•As always, the spear is a tough one to handicap. Defending champ Vetter beat Kirt in 2 of their 3 meetings this year, but the list-leading Estonian (297-3 | 90.61) gets the edge on marks with yearly meets 1, 2, 6, 9, 12 13, 17 & 18 in the top 20, whereas the German can only counter with 3 & 7… Fun fact: Kirt is the left-handed WR holder… Hofmann was last year’s No. 1 in the World Rankings but has been shy on wins this year… Another German star, reigning Olympic champ Thomas Röhler, hasn’t had a big throw since July… Cheng finished his Euro season with a pair of near-PR performances.
1. Magnus Kirt Estonia 90.61 | 297-3 (’18)
2. Johannes Vetter Germany 94.44 | 309-10 (’17)
3. Andreas Hofmann Germany 91.07 | 302-0 (’17)
4. Chao-Tsun Cheng Taiwan 91.36 | 299-9 (’17)
5. Julius Yego Kenya 92.72 | 304-2 (’15)
6. Anderson Peters Grenada 87.31 | 286-5 (’19)
7. Keshorn Walcott Trinidad 90.16 | 295-9 (’15)
8. Kim Amb Sweden 86.03 | 282-3 (’19)
9. Jakub Vadlejch Czech Republic 89.73 | 294-4 (’17)
10. Edis Matusevičius Lithuania 89.17 | 292-6 (’19)
The Americans:
Riley Dolezal 83.50 | 273-11 (’13)
Michael Shuey 83.21 | 273-0 (’19)
DECATHLON
•“The top 2 are solid, while bronze is a toss-up among Victor, Kaul & LePage , with vault progress for Victor an important factor,” says decathlon guru Frank Zarnowski. He calls Kaul “a star of the future.” WR holder Mayer hasn’t done a 10-eventer since that big mark last fall, but has scored hurdle and shot PRs this year… Warner’s 10.12 at Götzis was a new decathlon 100 WR.
1. Kevin Mayer France 9126 (’18)
2. Damian Warner Canada 8795 (’18)
3. Lindon Victor Grenada 8539 (’17)
4. Niklas Kaul Germany 8572 (’10)
5. Pierce LePage Canada 8453 (’19)
6. Maicel Uibo Estonia 8514 (’18)
7. Kai Kazmirek Germany 8580 (’16)
8. Pieter Braun Netherlands 8342 (’18)
9. Devon Williams USA 8345 (’17)
10. Janek Õiglane Estonia 8371 (’17)
Other Americans:
Solomon Simmons 8227 (’19)
Harrison Williams 8188 (’19)

THANKS FROM the T&FN staff to those correspondents who aided us in crafting these prognostications: Bob Bowman, Jonathan Berenbom, Sean Hartnett, Richard Hymans, Dave Johnson, Nejat Kök, Kevin Saylors, Jesse Squire & Frank Zarnowski.

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