2021 Olympic Games Men’s Top 10 Predictions

OUR INTERNATIONAL PANEL has crunched all the data for Tokyo, and the overall results say that the U.S. men will enjoy a medal haul similar to the one they had in Rio 5 years ago. This year’s projected 15 total podium spots split as 6 gold, 6 silver, 3 bronze. The number of overall medals drops ever-so-slightly over last time, from 16 to 15, and the number of golds also loses 1, from 7 to 6.

Comparing the projections to what happened at the most recent World Championships, Doha ’19, the totals are equal at 15, but the number of wins drops markedly, from 9 to 6. Doha also had 5 silvers and 1 bronze.

We have listed our Top 10 in each event. Any Team USA members who don’t make the top 10 are listed in alphabetical order at the end. The right-hand column is the athlete’s PR and the year in which it was made (except in the relays, where the mark is the best from the qualifying period).

Chart based on best information available as of July 28:

100 METERS
•The first Bolt-less 100 since ’04 doesn’t feature an overwhelming favorite, but Rio 8th-placer Bromell is having a great comeback year at 26. His 9.77 tops the yearly list and he has 7 sub-10 times… Baker’s only loss was to Bromell at the OT… Simbine beat De Grasse in Monaco, but the Canadian is a great big-meet performer, as he proved with his Rio bronze… The U.S. hasn’t had a 1-2 since Carl Lewis & Sam Graddy in ’84.
1.	Trayvon Bromell	USA	9.77 (’21)
2.	Ronnie Baker	USA	9.85 (’21)
3	Andre De Grasse	Canada	9.90 (’19)
4.	Akani Simbine	South Africa	9.84 (’21)
5.	Lamont Marcell Jacobs	Italy	9.95 (’21)
6.	Fred Kerley	USA	9.86 (’21)
7.	Yohan Blake	Jamaica	9.69 (’12)
8.	CJ Ujah	Great Britain	9.96 (’14)
9.	Zharnel Hughes	Great Britain	9.91 (’18)
10	Tyquendo Tracey	Jamaica	9.96 (’14)

200 METERS
•This will be the first Games since Sydney without Usain Bolt in the 200… Reigning world champ Lyles had a mediocre set of 100s, but bounced back in the OT with a list-leading 19.74… De Grasse figures to be the first back-to-back silver medalist since Frank Fredericks in ’92 & ’96. He has split his 2 meetings with Bednarek this year… Fahnbulleh changed nations after winning the NCAA… How well will the 17-year-old Knighton handle the pressure?
1.	Noah Lyles	USA	19.50 (’19)
2.	Andre De Grasse	Canada	19.80 (’16)
3.	Kenny Bednarek	USA	19.78 (’21)
4.	Joe Fahnbulleh	Liberia	19.91 (’21)
5.	Erriyon Knighton	USA	19.84 (’21)
6.	Jereem Richards	Trinidad	19.97 (’17)
7.	Aaron Brown	Canada	19.95 (’19)
8.	Rasheed Dwyer	Jamaica	19.80 (’15)
9.	Yohan Blake	Jamaica	19.26 (’11)
10.	Yancarlos Martinez	Dominican Republic	20.19 (’16)

400 METERS
•It’s a tight call between reigning world champion Gardiner and OT winner Norman. On the one hand the Bahamian did score a win by a couple of 10ths in their only meeting this year, but the American should get a boost from competing in his mother’s homeland… Comebacking WR holder van Niekerk is probably overrated, but seeing the defending champ on the podium again is a storyline too compelling to be ignored. Color us as old softies.
1.	Steven Gardiner	Bahamas	43.48 (’19)
2.	Michael Norman	USA	43.45 (’19)
3.	Wayde van Niekerk	South Africa	43.03 (’16)
4.	Michael Cherry	USA	44.35 (’21)
5.	Randolph Ross	USA	43.85 (’21)
6.	Kirani James	Grenada	43.74 (’14)
7.	Anthony Zambrano	Colombia	44.15 (’19)
8.	Deon Lendore	Trinidad	44.36 (’14)
9.	Isaac Makwala	Botswana	43.72 (’15)
10.	Machel Cedenio	Trinidad	44.01 (’16)

800 METERS
•Amos will go in as the only sub-1:42 runner in the field, and he has done it twice, most recently in ’19, when he missed the WC with an Achilles problem. He beat Korir and Arop in the year’s biggest race to date, Monaco… Rio bronze winner Murphy is threatening to become the first American to medal twice in a row since Mal Whitfield won in ’48 & ’52… Savvy racer Hoppel might be undervalued in 9.
1.	Nijel Amos	Botswana	1:41.73 (’12)
2.	Emmanuel Korir	Kenya	1:42.05 (’18)
3.	Marco Arop	Canada	1:43.26 (’21)
4.	Clayton Murphy	USA	1:42.93 (’16)
5.	Ferguson Rotich	Kenya	1:42.54 (’19)
6.	Jesús López	Mexico	1:43.44 (’21)
7.	Elliot Giles	Great Britain	1:43.63 (’21)
8.	Patryk Dobek	Poland	1:43.73 (’21)
9.	Bryce Hoppel	USA	1:43.23 (’20)
10.	Oliver Dustin	Great Britain	1:43.82 (’21)
Other American:
Isaiah Jewett 1:43.85 (’21)

1500 METERS
•Reigning world champ Cheruiyot has been close to unbeatable on the DL Circuit since ’18 and is 10-0 lifetime against Ingy… With the 1500 and 5000 heats on the same day, it will take a brave man to double, so it’s possible that Katir won’t appear here…Defending champ Centro is the only one on the chart with a PR that wasn’t made this year or last, but he did just lower his mile best to 3:49.26.
1.	Timothy Cheruiyot	Kenya	3:28.28 (’21)
2.	Jakob Ingebrigtsen	Norway	3:28.26 (’20)
3.	Mohamed Katir	Spain	3:28.76 (’21)
4.	Stewart McSweyn	Australia	3:29.51 (’21)
5.	Marcin Lewandowski	Poland	3:30.42 (’21)
6.	Matthew Centrowitz	USA	3:30.40 (’15)
7.	Charles Simotwo	Kenya	3:30.30 (’21)
8.	Jake Wightman	Great Britain	3:29.47 (’20)
9.	Samuel Tefera	Ethiopia	3:30.71 (’21)
10.	Josh Kerr	Great Britain	3:31.55 (’21)
Other Americans:
Cole Hocker 3:35.28 (’21)
Yared Nuguse 3:34.68 (’21)

STEEPLE
•The only career sub-8:00 performer in the field, El Bakkali is still looking for his first big gold after a 4th in Rio, then silver & bronze at the ’17 &’19 Worlds… 4th in Doha’s steeple, Wale may well end up only in the 5000 in Tokyo… Yearly leader Lamecha Girma didn’t make the Ethiopian team… AR holder Evan Jager, winner of Rio silver, missed the OT with a calf tear.
1.	Soufiane El Bakkali	Morocco	7:58.15 (’18)
2.	Getnet Wale	Ethiopia	8:05.21 (’19)
3.	Abraham Kibiwot	Kenya	8:05.72 (’19)
4.	Leonard Bett	Kenya	8:08.61 (’19)
5.	Takele Bikila Tadese	Ethiopia	8:09.37 (’21)
6.	Hillary Bor	USA	8:08.41 (’19)
7.	Djilali Bedrani	France	8:05.23 (’19)
8.	Benjamin Kigen	Kenya	8:05.12 (’19)
9.	Ahmed Abdelwahed	Italy	8:12.04 (’21)
10.	Mohammed Tindoufti	Morocco	8:11.65 (’21)
Other Americans:
Mason Ferlic 8:18.49 (’21)
Bernard Keter 8:18.53 (’21)

5000 METERS
•The outlook changed late when yearly leader Jakob Ingebrigtsen chose to do just the 1500… Wale might end up in the steeple. Should he do that, he could be replaced by 12:45 performer Hagos Gebrhiwet… Katir has come from proverbial nowhere this year, chopping a minute off his PR but he too could end up just in the 1500… Then there’s the doublers coming back (extra fatigued in the Japanese weather?) from the 10,000: Kiplimo, Ahmed & WR holder Cheptegei. A very muddy picture.
1.	Getnet Wale	Ethiopia	12:53.28 (’21)
2.	Mohamed Katir	Spain	12:50.79 (’21)
3.	Jacob Kiplimo	Uganda	12:48.63 (’20)
4.	Moh Ahmed	Canada	12:47.20 (’20)
5.	Joshua Cheptegei	Uganda	12:35.36 (’20)
6.	Nicholas Kimeli	Kenya	12:51.78 (’20)
7.	Justyn Knight	Canada	12:51.93 (’21)
8.	Nibret Melak	Ethiopia	12:54.22 (’21)
9.	Paul Chelimo	USA	12:57.55 (’19)
10.	Daniel Simiyu	Kenya	12:55.88 (’21)
Other Americans:
Grant Fisher 13:02.53 (’21)
Woody Kincaid 12:58.10 (’19)

10,000 METERS
•In a battle of youngsters (both will be only 21 by year’s end) Barega and Kiplimo will meet for the first time in a 10,000. Elsewhere they have met 10 times at various distances with the Ethiopian having a 6–4 edge… WR holder Cheptegei was only 6th in his last race, a June 5000, and won’t have any pacing lights this time around… Kejelcha holds the indoor mile WR holder and twice World Indoor 3000 gold medalist, so we know he has good speed. He could easily move up.
1.	Selemon Barega	Ethiopia	26:49.46 (’19)
2.	Jacob Kiplimo	Uganda	26:33.93 (’21)
3.	Joshua Cheptegei	Uganda	26:11:00 (’20)
4.	Yomif Kejelcha	Ethiopia	26:49.34 (’19)
5.	Rhonex Kipruto	Kenya	26:50.16 (’19)
6.	Moh Ahmed	Canada	26:59.33 (’20)
7.	Rodgers Kwemoi	Kenya	26:55.36 (’19)
8.	Berihu Aregawi	Ethiopia	26:50.37 (’21)
9.	Grant Fisher	USA	27:11.29 (’21)
10.	Akira Aiizawa	Japan	27:18.75 (’20)
Other Americans:
Woody Kincaid 27:12.78 (’21)
Joe Klecker 27:23.44 (’21)

110 HURDLES
•With only 2 Diamond League races in the bank — and those missing most of the major players — there’s not a lot of evidence to go on, but with reigning champ Omar McLeod not making the Jamaican team, Holloway is a heavy favorite. The reigning world champ is a serious threat to the World Record as well… Shubenkov is a great big-meet performer… Izumiya is the breakthrough performer of the year, having clipped a full 0.30 off his PR.
1.	Grant Holloway	USA	12.81 (’21)
2.	Sergey Shubenkov	Russia	12.92 (’18)
3.	Shunsuke Izumiya	Japan	13.06 (’21)
4.	Devon Allen	USA	13.03 (’16)
5.	Daniel Roberts	USA	13.00 (’19)
6.	Ronald Levy	Jamaica	13.05 (’17)
7	Damion Thomas	Jamaica	13.11 (’21)
8.	Wilhem Belocian	France	13.15 (’21)
9.	Orlando Ortega	Spain	12.94 (’15)
10.	Andy Pozzi	Great Britain	13.14 (’20)

400 HURDLES
•This will surely be one of the most anticipated showdowns of the meet, with Warholm’s new World Record under serious attack by both the Norwegian star and American challenger Benjamin. Warholm has more consistent technique, but Benjamin has the edge on raw speed. It could all come down to lane draw… A few years back Samba would have been in the gold discussion, but now he’ll have to return to his old form to beat the improving duo of dos Santos and McMaster just to get onto the podium
1.	Karsten Warholm	Norway	46.70 (’21)
2.	Rai Benjamin	USA	46.83 (’21)
3.	Alison dos Santos	Brazil	47.34 (’21)
4.	Kyron McMaster	British Virgin Islands	47.50 (’21)
5.	Abderrahmane Samba	Qatar	46.98 (’18)
6.	Kenny Selmon	USA	48.08 (’21)
7.	Jaheel Hyde	Jamaica	48.18 (’21)
8.	Yasmani Copello	Turkey	47.81 (’18)
9.	Dave Kendziera	USA	48.38 (’21)
10.	Thomas Barr	Ireland	47.97 (’16)

MARATHON
•At almost 37 Kipchoge has a lot of miles on his legs, but we figure he should be good for one last hurrah, successfully defending his title… Cherono has a minute and a half’s PR edge over reigning London winner Shura… Excessive heat & humidity could radically change the picture, but no matter what, Kenyans and Ethiopians are expected to dominate… This will be Abdirahman’s fifth Olympics (the first 3 were in the 10,000).
1.	Eliud Kipchoge	Kenya	2:01:39 (’19)
2.	Lawrence Cherono	Kenya	2:03:04 (’20)
3.	Tola Shura	Ethiopia	2:04:49 (’18)
4.	Amos Kipruto	Kenya	2:03:30 (’20)
5.	Sisay Lemma	Ethiopia	2:03:36 (’19)
6.	Suguro Osako	Japan	2:05:29 (’20)
7.	Lelisa Desisa	Ethiopia	2:04:45 (’13)
8.	Galen Rupp	USA	2:06:07 (’18)
9.	Felix Chemonges	Uganda	2:05:12 (’19)
10.	Stephen Mokoka	South Africa	2:07:40 (’15)
Other Americans:
Abdi Abdirahman 2:08:56 (’06)
Jacob Riley 2:10:02 (’20)

20K WALK
•Japan and China figure to duke it out for the medals… Wang has the year’s fastest time, but no major medals in his collection. Yamanishi, on the other hand, is the reigning world champ and will of course have a big home-court advantage… 5-time Japanese champion Takahashi projects to complete the podium, but Doha bronze winner Karlström should threaten… Then comes the third Japanese and other two Chinese.
1.	Toshikazu Yamanishi	Japan	1:17:15 (’19)
2.	Kaihua Wang	China	1:16:54 (’21)
3.	Eiki Takahashi	Japan	1:17:26 (’18)
4.	Perseus Karlström	Sweden	1:18:07 (’19)
5.	Koki Ikeda	Japan	1:17:25 (’19)
6.	Jun Zhang	China	1:17:39 (’21)
7.	Zelin Cai	China	1:17:39 (’21)
8.	Diego García	Spain	1:18:58 (’19)
9.	Álvaro Martín	Spain	1:19:14 (’21)
10.	Vasiliy Mizinov	Russia	1:18:32 (’19)
The American:
Nick Christie 1:24:15 (’19)

50K WALK
•There’s a decided dearth of current information to go on here, given how rarely high-end 50s are contested… The 50’s world list leader in ’19, Kawano also won silvers in the Asian Champs and World University Games that year… Luo is this year’s Chinese champ… Maruo has this year’s fastest time and gets the nod for the final spot over Canadian vet Dunfee… Defending champ Tóth has only a single poor 20K showing to his credit this year.
1.	Masatora Kawano	Japan	3:36:45 (’19)
2.	Yadong Luo	China	3:41:15 (’19)
3.	Satoshi Maruo	Japan	3:37:39 (’19)
4.	Evan Dunfee	Canada	3:41:38 (’16)
5.	Qin Wang	China	3:38:02 (’19)
6.	Marc Tur	Spain	3:47:40 (’21)
7.	Erick Barrondo	Guatemala	3:41:09 (’13)
8.	Matej Tóth	Slovakia	3:34:38 (’15)
9.	Yohann Diniz	France	3:32:33 (’14)
10.	Andrés Chocho	Ecuador	3:42:57 (’16)
No Americans

4 x 100
•It has become a familiar story now at major championships: the U.S. has a formidable team but it all too often comes a cropper. The Americans are indeed the best on paper and solid in the knowledge that they’re reigning world champions. Only anchor Noah Lyles will be available from the Doha foursome. As usual, no premeet indication of just who will run. And there were no meets available for shakedown cruises beforehand either… Look for the well-drilled —and fast — Japanese to mount a real threat.
1.	United States	37.10 (’19)
2.	Japan	37.43 (’19)
3.	Great Britain	37.36 (’19)
4.	Jamaica	38.15 (’19)
5.	South Africa	37.65 (’19)
6.	Brazil	37.72 (’19)
7.	China	37.79 (’19)
8.	Netherlands	37.91 (’19)
9.	Canada	37.91 (’19)
10.	Turkey	38.20 (’21)

4 x 400
•Team USA, the reigning world and Olympic gold champion, just has too much firepower to be overcome here (although we’ve heard that tale before). As in the 4×1, no advance word from team management regards personnel, which is somewhat more of a jigsaw puzzle with the mixed-sex race also needing entrants… Jamaica looks like a solid choice for silver.
1.	United States	2:56.69 (’19)
2.	Jamaica	2:57.90 (’19)
3.	Belgium	2:58.78 (’19)
5.	Trinidad	3:00.74 (’19)
4.	Colombia	2:59.50 (’19)
6.	South Africa	3:02.06 (’19)
7.	Italy	3:01.60 (’19)
8.	France	3:01.40 (’19)
9.	Great Britain	3:01.96 (’19)
10.	Japan	3:02.05 (’19)

MIXED-SEX 4 x 400

•This event made its big-time debut at the ’19 WC, where, not unexpectedly Team USA dominated. Other than noting that the sprint-rich U.S. should dominate again, doing a meaningful formchart is beyond us at this point, given that it’s not clear which people various nations will slot here with the men’s and women’s 4x4s still to come. Each nation has 2 men, 2 women, who can run in any order they choose. In Doha the Americans ran M/W/W/M in setting a World Record of 3:09.34.

HIGH JUMP
•2-time reigning world champ Barshim has the big career heights to be No. 1, but hasn’t cleared anything higher than 7-6½ (2.30) this year. Still, he added 10cm to his seasonal best in winning the ’19 WC (with homecourt advantage)… But we’ll give a narrow edge to Ivanyuk, who is 2–0 against him this year and has the season’s best overall marks collection… Top American Harrison has a great collection of marks but remains a neophyte at the international level.
1.	Ilya Ivanyuk	Russia	2.37 | 7-9¼ (’21)
2	Mutaz Barshim	Qatar	2.43 | 7-11½ (’14)
3	Maksim Nedasekau	Belarus	2.37 | 7-9¼ (’21)
4	JuVaughn Harrison	USA	2.36 | 7-8¼ (’21)
5	Andriy Protsenko	Ukraine	2.40 | 7-10½ (’14)
6	Mikhail Akimenko	Russia	2.35 | 7-8½ (’19)
7	Brandon Starc	Australia	2.36 | 7-8¾ (’18)
8	Gianmarco Tamberi	Italy	2.39 | 7-10 (’16)
9	Naoto Tobe	Japan	2.32 | 7-7¼ (’19)
10	Django Lovett	Canada	2.33 | 7-7¾ (’21)
Other Americans:
Shelby McEwen 2.33 | 7-7¾
Darryl Sullivan 2.33 | 7-7¾

POLE VAULT
•If 1 and 2 look familiar to you that’s because they’ve met no fewer than 33 times, starting in ’17. Mondo has a narrow 18–15 lead, but that’s a bit misleading, since Kendricks has beaten him only once in their last 15 head-to-heads. This year’s score is 6–1 Mondo. But Kendricks, remember, is the reigning world champion. Still, he might well need a PR to beat the WR holder… Nilsen holds a 3–2 edge over Kendricks this year. (Post-publication note: Kendricks knocked out by C19, replaced by Matt Ludwig.)
1.	Mondo Duplantis	Sweden	6.18 | 20-3¼ (’20)
2.	Sam Kendricks	USA	6.06 | 19-10½ (’19)
3.	Chris Nilsen	USA	5.95 | 19-6¼ (’19)
4.	Renaud Lavillenie	France	6.16 | 20-2½ (’14)
5.	Ernest John Obiena	Philippines	5.87 | 19-3 (’21)
6.	Piotr Lisek	Poland	6.02 | 19-9 (’19)
7.	KC Lightfoot	USA	6.00 | 19-8¼ (’21)
8.	Thiago Braz	Brazil	6.03 | 19-9¼ (’16)
9.	Menno Vloon	Netherlands	5.96 | 19-6½ (’21)
10.	Valentin Lavillenie	France	5.82 | 19-1 (’19)

LONG JUMP
•In a Battle Of The Caribbean, Gayle and Echevarría are very evenly matched, even down to their PRs being only a centimeter apart. The Cuban has the better set of career marks, but the Jamaican won their only meeting this year and is the reigning world champion… Then there’s the best the Mediterranean has to offer, yearly leader Tentóglou… Harrison will be busy, the final being his fourth straight day of jumping if he makes it, following a sequence of HJ qual/LJ qual/HJ final.
1.	Tajay Gayle	Jamaica	8.69 | 28-6¼ (’19)
2.	Juan Miguel Echevarría	Cuba	8.68 | 28-5¾ (’18)
3.	Miltiádis Tentóglou	Greece	8.60 | 28-2¾ (’21)
4.	JuVaughn Harrison	USA	8.47 | 27-9½ (’21)
5.	Marquis Dendy	USA	8.42 | 27-7½ (’16)
6.	Yuki Hashioka	Japan	8.36 | 27-5¼ (’21)
7.	Thobias Montler	Sweden	8.31 | 27-3¼ (’21)
8.	Carey McLeod	Jamaica	8.34 | 27-4½ (’21)
9.	Ruswahl Samaai	South Africa	8.49 | 27-10¼(A) (’17)
10.	Maykel Massó	Cuba	8.39 | 27-6½ (’21)
Other American:
Steffin McCarter 8.26 | 27-1¼ (’21)

TRIPLE JUMP
•This projects as a titanic 3-way among 59-footers (18m). Based on career records, Claye should be favored, never having lost to Zango and holding an 8–5 edge over PPP. But with only 2 meets since a major Achilles injury Claye ends up slotted behind the other two. And boy are they even: 5–5 lifetime, 1–1 this year. Narrow edge to indoor WR setter Zango.
1.	Hugues Fabrice Zango	Burkina Faso	18.07 | 59-3½ (’21)
2.	Pedro Pablo Pichardo	Portugal	18.08 | 59-4 (’15)
3.	Will Claye	USA	18.14 | 59-6¼ (’19)
4.	Yasser Triki	Algeria	17.33 | 56-10¼ (’21)
5.	Yaming Zhu	China	17.40 | 57-1 (’19)
6.	Andy Díaz	Cuba	17.63 | 57-10¼ (’21)
7.	Donald Scott	USA	17.43 | 57-2¼ (’19)
8.	Jordan A. Díaz	Cuba	17.49 | 57-4¾ (’19)
9.	Ruiting Wu	China	17.47 | 57-3¾ (’19)
10.	Melvin Raffin	France	17.20 | 56-5¼ (’17)
Other American:
Chris Benard 17.48 | 57-4¼ (’17)

SHOT
•Given defending champion Crouser’s incredible consistency at the 74-foot (22.50) level, somebody will probably have to come up with a (very) big throw to beat him. Still, it was Kovacs who came out on top at the ’19 WC, by a centimeter over Crouser and Walsh in perhaps the greatest shot competition ever. Lifetime head-to-heads: Crouser 25-6 over Kovacs, 17-10 over Walsh, Walsh 21-18 over Kovacs… Will foot fouls be an issue for Crouser?
1	Ryan Crouser	USA	23.37 | 76-8¼ (’21)
2	Joe Kovacs	USA	22.91 | 75-2 (’19)
3	Tom Walsh	New Zealand	22.90 | 75-1¾ (’19)
4	Filip Mihaljević	Croatia	21.94 | 71-11¾ (’21)
5	Armin Sinančević	Serbia	21.88 | 71-9½ (’21)
6	Jacko Gill	New Zealand	21.55 | 70-8½ (’21)
7	Chuk Enekwechi	Nigeria	21.80 | 71-6¼ (’19)
8	Darlan Romani	Brazil	22.61 | 74-2¼ (’19)
9	Michał Haratyk	Poland	22.32 | 73-2¾ (’19)
10	Tomáš Staněk	Czech Republic	22.17 | 72-9 (’18)
Other American:
Payton Otterdahl 21.92 | 71-11 (’21)

DISCUS
•The prolific Ståhl has won 11 of his 12 meets this year, the only loss coming to fellow Swede Pettersson early in the going… The reigning world champ, Ståhl has a 9–0 lifetime record against Čeh, whose breakthrough year has found him joining the 70-meter club… The Slovenian is 3–0 over ’17 world champ Gudžius this year… ’19 WC silver medalist is a consistent big-meet performer.
1.	Daniel Ståhl	Sweden	71.86 | 235-9 (’19)
2.	Kristjan Čeh	Slovenia	70.35 | 230-9 (’21)
3	Andrius Gudžius	Lithuania	69.59 | 228-3 (’18)
4.	Fedrick Dacres	Jamaica	70.78 | 232-3 (’19)
5.	Lukas Weißhaidinger	Austria	69.04 | 226-6 (’21)
6.	Daniel Jasinski	Germany	67.47 | 221-4 (’21)
7.	Simon Pettersson	Sweden	69.48 | 227-11 (’21)
8.	Lawrence Okoye	Great Britain	68.24 | 223-11 (’12)
9.	Mason Finley	USA	68.03 | 223-2 (’17)
10.	Alex Rose	Samoa	67.48 | 221-5 (’21)
Other Americans:
Reggie Jagers 68.61 | 225-1 (’18)
Sam Mattis 67.45 | 221-3 (’16)

HAMMER
•As the reigning 4-time gold medalist, Fajdek has impeccable World Championships credentials. At the Olympics, however, he was the Rio favorite but ended up a non-qualifier for the final. Obviously, he’ll have extra motivation this time around… Multiple AR-setter Winkler’s breakout year has him positioned to be the first U.S. medalist since Lance Deal took Atlanta silver… Nowicki is indeed a man of bronze, having taken 3rd not only in Rio, but also in the last 3 WCs.
1.	Paweł Fajdek	Poland	83.93 | 275-4 (’15)
2.	Rudy Winkler	USA	82.71 | 271-4 (’21)
3.	Wojciech Nowicki	Poland	81.85 | 268-6 (’18)
4.	Quentin Bigot	France	79.70 | 261-5 (’21)
5.	Mykhaylo Kokhan	Ukraine	80.78 | 265-0 (’21)
6.	Daniel Haugh	USA	79.39 | 260-5 (’21)
7.	Alex Young	USA	78.32 | 256-11 (’21)
8.	Valeriy Pronkin	Russia	79.32 | 260-3 (’17)
9.	Eivind Henriksen	Norway	78.25 | 256-8 (’19)
10.	Bence Halász	Hungary	79.88 | 262-1 (’20)

JAVELIN
•On paper, it’s hard to see Vetter losing, but strange things happen in championship javelins. Still, the German has the top 7 meets of the year, all over the 90m (295-3) barrier and is undefeated in 10 meets… Krukowski and Chopra have set new National Records this year… After a surprise gold in ’12 and a bronze in ’16 Walcott should challenge for a third medal… The U.S. hasn’t medaled since Bill Schmidt’s bronze in ’76.
1.	Johannes Vetter	Germany	97.76 | 320-8 (’20)
2.	Marcin Krukowski	Poland	89.55 | 293-9 (’21)
3.	Neeraj Chopra	India	88.07 | 288-11 (’21)
4.	Keshorn Walcott	Trinidad	90.16 | 295-9 (’15)
5.	Julian Weber	Germany	88.29 | 289-8 (’16)
6.	Andrian Mardare	Moldova	86.66 | 284-3 (’21)
7.	Anderson Peters	Grenada	87.31 | 286-5 (’19)
8.	Gatis Čakšs	Latvia	87.57 | 287-3 (’21)
9.	Toni Kuusela	Finland	85.03 | 278-11 (’21)
10.	Aliaksei Katkavets	Belarus	86.05 | 282-3 (’20)
The Americans:
Michael Shuey 85.67 | 281-1 (’21)
Curtis Thompson 82.88 | 271-11 (’16)

DECATHLON
•Conventional wisdom says don’t bet against WR holder Mayer, who pushed Ashton Eaton in Rio. At the same time, the specter of his no-height in the Doha vault lurks… Should Mayer falter, yearly leader Warner is poised to strike after his big PR in winning Götzis… Reigning world champ Kaul’s sprinting is suspect but his last two events are huge… Scantling PRed to win the Trials and may have more in him… Ziemek’s 3 OT jumps were the best ever in a dec.
1.	Kevin Mayer	France	9126 (’18)
2.	Damian Warner	Canada	8995 (’21)
3.	Niklaus Kaul	Germany	8691 (’19)
4.	Pierce LePage	Canada	8534 (’21)
5.	Garrett Scantling	USA	8647 (’21)
6.	Zach Ziemek	USA	8471 (’21)
7.	Maicel Uibo	Estonia	8604 (’19)
8.	Ilya Shkurenyov	Russia	8601 (’17)
9.	Thomas Van der Plaetsen	Belgium	8430 (’21)
10.	Stephen Bastien	USA	8485 (’21)

Thanks from the T&FN staff to those correspondents who aided us in crafting these prognostications: Jonathan Berenbom, Sean Hartnett, Richard Hymans, Dave Johnson, Kevin Saylors, Jesse Squire, Steve Vaitones & Frank Zarnowski.