IF TELEVISION COMMERCIALS and magazine covers can sway you, then yes, you probably agree that Noah Lyles is the slam-dunk favorite to win the Olympic sprint double next month. Lyles, who won the 100/200 double against the odds last summer at the Worlds in Budapest, would likely agree with you.
“The blueprint was 2023,” he said at the Trials. “And now we’re making it happen.”
It’s fair to acknowledge that if anyone has a chance to win both in Paris, it’s Lyles. While there are other legitimate contenders at each distance, none put the 100 and the 200 together like the 26-year-old American. Yet a look back at the history of the double shows that it is no walk in the park, and that for Lyles, it may represent the biggest challenge of his career.
Since the dawn of modern professional track — we’re going to arbitrarily go with the ’84 Olympics for the purposes of this article — the sprint double for men has only been achieved 4 out of 10 possible Games. That history starts with Carl Lewis in LA; the New Jersey native also won golds in the 4 x 100 and long jump to begin his legendary Olympic career. And though he won golds in the next three Olympics as well, he never again captured the 100/200 double.
Then, of course, came Usain Bolt. The Jamaican captured the double in ’08, ’12 and ’16. In the latter two Games he was on the winning 4×1 as well; only the doping DQ of a teammate kept him from that honor in ’08. No one did it better than Bolt; he still claims the Olympic Records at 9.63 (’12) and 19.30 (’08), plus the relay at 36.84 (’12).
Historically, one can’t ignore the World Championships sprint double, though it’s not exactly the same. The possibility comes up more often (18 times since ’84) and one can argue that the pressure surrounding the World double is nowhere near that of the Olympics, so it perhaps shouldn’t be lumped in the same category. It has been accomplished 7 times: Maurice Greene (’99), Justin Gatlin (’05), Tyson Gay (’07), Usain Bolt (’09, ’13, ’15) and by Lyles last summer.
What does it take to pull off the double? Nerves of steel, for one. The championships setting is hard and emotionally overwhelming. Lyles’ Tokyo ’21 experience, taking the 200 bronze, gives him some helpful background. He has said, “I definitely thrive off pressure. I thrive off big moments. The bigger the moment, the faster I run and there’s no moment where I think I’m gonna go into that I’m not made for.”
While one might think it helps to come in as an overwhelming favorite, it’s worth noting that looking at the yearly lists isn’t the best guide. Only once in the four Olympic doubles since ’84 has the winner been the world leader in both events going in; that was Bolt in ’08, when he ran a 9.72 World Record plus a 19.67 prior to the Games.
Similar story with the Worlds doubles. Tyson Gay was a world leader in both the 100 and 200 before his successful double in Osaka ’07. And Bolt led both events in ’13 before his wins in Moscow.
Otherwise, the successful doublers were not at the top of the lists, with just a couple of instances where they led one event and not the other — Lewis paced the 200 lists in ’84, Greene had a WR 100 before the ’99 Worlds, and Lyles the 200 world leader in ’23.
Sometimes, in fact, the eventual champions were nowhere near the top of the list. Bolt went into the ’15 Worlds at No. 7 on the 100 list and =19 in the 200. But despite his injury-plagued spring, no one was counting him out.
Last year, while Lyles led the world at 200 pre-Budapest with his 19.47, he was only =20 on the 100 list at the same time. So perhaps Lyles fans shouldn’t be too worried that his 9.83 this season is shy of the world lead 9.77 that Kishane Thompson ran at the Jamaican Trials.
What Lyles fans should worry about is what happened at the Racers GP in Kingston on June 1. Lyles lost there to Jamaica’s Oblique Seville, 9.82–9.85. Then, a month later, Seville runs another 9.82, and he loses to Thompson’s 9.77, in a race in which Thompson claims to have eased up at the end.
After the Olympic Trials 100, Lyles couched his Kingston performance as more than a glass half full. “Ran 85 in Jamaica, came out here, ran 83, tied my PR, and it’s everything that I want moving forward.”
In the business of winning global sprint doubles, what might be a red flag is losing any races prior to the championship. Often, the athlete shows up unbeaten and has a distinct mental edge. There have been exceptions. In ’99 Maurice Greene dropped a pair to Ato Boldon. In ’05 Gatlin lost a couple races to some lesser lights. In ’12 Bolt lost both his Jamaican Trials races to Yohan Blake. Last year, though, was strange. No one in the history we reviewed had a worse record in one of their main events than Lyles at 100m pre-Budapest. He only won 2 out of 5 finals, and was only 3rd at the USATF meet.
Which leads to a great debate for armchair experts: is Lyles exceptionally gifted at peaking for the big one? Or was the field he faced in the Budapest 100 weaker than what one would expect for a global championship? Of the 11 global 100 championships 2008–22, 8 went faster than Lyles’ 9.83. And while most of those have the name “Bolt” attached to them, perhaps it’s a fitting reminder that Lyles has not reached those exalted levels yet.
So who is in a position to rain on the Lyles victory parade? In the 100, Jamaicans Kishane Thompson and Oblique Seville loom as serious threats. Thompson is coached by Stephen Francis, who is responsible for many of the sprint golds that have gone to the Jamaican women. Seville is guided by Glen Mills, who also mentored Bolt. In other words, expect both of the Jamaicans to be very well prepared and ready in Paris.
On Team USA, both Kenny Bednarek and Fred Kerley are legitimate threats at 100. Kerley, the ’22 World champ who last fall started being coached by Olympic great Quincy Watts, makes no secret of his desire to dethrone Lyles. And Bednarek, like Lyles moving down to the 100 from his 200 stronghold, has been making quick progress in the dash under the guidance of Dennis Mitchell.
In the 200, Lyles’ position is much stronger. He has the speed and the time to make up for the occasional poor start, and his consistency is tough for his opponents to challenge. He said it best: “19.5 is pretty much my zip code.”
However, Lyles faces competition that could be challenging, especially if he has an off day. At the Trials, Bednarek was just 0.06 back with a PR 19.59. Three years ago, the Wisconsin native beat Lyles in Tokyo and earned Olympic silver.
Erriyon Knighton was farther back at the Trials with his 19.77, but recall it was his first outdoor meet of the year. Twice a World medalist at 200, his 19.49 PR makes him dangerous should he find his form in Paris.
Letsile Tebogo cannot be discounted. The Botswanan ran 19.50 last year in London and then earned bronze in Budapest. Just 21, his star is still rising.
In the interest of completeness, we could — but won’t — list more names of other folks who might surprise us (and Lyles) in Paris. Remember that ’21 Olympic 100 winner Lamont Jacobs was only formcharted to finish 5th in Tokyo.
Call it hubris, or call it fearlessness, Lyles has welcomed being saddled with the role of the favorite. “It’s the hard things that I want to go after.” Should he fail in his mission, his PR people are going to have to scramble.
In the Netflix documentary Sprint — which scored well at No. 6 among the streaming service’s offerings in the first week after its release — Lyles famously said, “I’m a true believer in that the moment isn’t bigger than me, the moment was made for me.”
We are just days away from knowing if that is true.
