WHEN? Saturday February 03. Men’s start 10:10 AM (EST); Women’s start 10:20 AM. This will be the fourth edition of a conjoined men’s and women’s Trials, the pairing having begun with the Houston Trials in ’12 followed by Los Angeles ’16 and Atlanta in ’20.
Broadcast: Streaming live on Peacock (10:00 AM). Tape-delayed on NBC (12 noon EST). Check your local listings.
Trials Websites
Weather: Weather looks OK, not as bad as feared, but not the good-to-great weather expected on Thursday. With each successive day temperatures and dewpoints are likely to tick up 2–3 degrees Fahrenheit. Saturday should not be too bad. With forecasted sunny skies, temperatures will rise from 62 to 72 (16–22 C) degrees, amid light easterly winds of 4–7mph, and manageable dewpoint temperatures rising from 46 to 49.
For athletes who have acclimatized with an extended pre-Trials stay in Florida, the race-day weather will be a much welcomed break from the hot and humid weather of the past week.
The expected 10-degree increase in temperature over the course of the races poses the most significant challenge for the runners as they will try to maintain an efficient performance while the temperature increases a degree every 15 minutes. The dew point is also borderline, sitting just below the 50 (10c) degree threshold when the energy that an athlete expends processing sweat begins to compromise performance.
The light wind and little chance of rain are pluses, though with much more humid air and rain showers predicted for Sunday we can only hope that the weather change doesn’t pick up its pace.
Weather is weather – check back for updates at Weather Underground.
Prediction: 2+ stars, sunny and a bit warm finishing over 70-degress, and a borderline rather challenging dewpoint.
Criterium Course: The course consists of a primary 8-mile loop, preceded by a 2-mile starting loop, and concluding with a 385-yard finishing straight. The course features both repeating mile markers and 5K stations. Real-time splits should be available.
Course Elevation and Shade Characteristics: As may be expected for central Florida, the course is relatively flat, but far from dead flat with a 39-foot elevation range and a 30-foot riparian depression in the middle of the course separating higher ground found downtown in the start/finish area and the eastern portion of the course.
Slope: As for the relatively flat sections, % Slope calculations for each 100-meter segment of the course reveal that in sum 8600 meters (20.4%) is flat, while 9100 meters (21.6%) rises 1 foot in elevation over 100 meters, and an additional 7500 meters (17.8%) drops but one foot.
Trials Time & Place and Qualification for the Paris Olympics
Three qualification time standards are in play for participation in the US Trials and the Olympics.
Trials Q Standards
Men — 2:18:00 (206 Participants), Half-Marathon 63:00 (7)
Note: Abdi Abdirahman — now 47 years old and vying to make his sixth Olympic Team — and Jake Riley are qualified by virtue of having been Tokyo Olympics competitors.
Women — 2:37:00 (153 participants), Half-Marathon 72:00 (12)
Olympic Q Standards
Men — 2:11:30 (21 participating)
Women — 2:29:30 (32 participating)
Olympic ‘Team Spot’ Qualifier
Men — 2:08:10 (2, Conner Mantz and Clayton Young)
Women — 2:27:30 (21 participating)
Link to lists of Trials Qualifying Performances
Place Qualifiers for the US Team
The first 3 women, and first 3, or first 2 men’s finishers are self-selected for the Paris Olympic Team.
The qualification system on one hand is simple— hit the 2:08:10 or 2:27:30 standard OR rank in the world’s top 68 marathoners and that clocking qualifies an athlete for Paris if they are selected by their country. It is this ranking aspect that is exceedingly convoluted as it employs a ranking system that is in constant flux.
Olympic Qualifying may well be much like NCAA Cross Country System which is also a bit cumbersome, but is neatly sorted out once the racing is complete. The women’s qualification with 21 runners having bettered the standard has opened up a full 3 Team USA berths for Paris. The men only have two via Connor Mantz and Clayton Young. The US may have to wait out the spring marathon season as more international athletes may hit the standard and reduce the number of rankings qualifiers. While this may not quite seem fair, note that it is a global system and the US Trials are unique. Olympic selection for all other nations and their athletes involves chasing times, and they can chase the 2:08:10 standard through the end of April, the fast-course London and Rotterdam races included.
For US athletes, the last chance to chase the 2:08:10 standard is at the Trials and with predicted pretty good weather, expect more than a handful to see how far they can sustain the requisite 4:53 mile pace.
Trials Records: Men — Ryan Hall 2:09:02 (2008). Women — Shalane Flanagan 2:25:38 (2012)
Trials History and Fields: The Trials Media Guide from USATF is a good read providing a review of US Olympic Marathon Trials history along with profiles of the leading contenders.
Link To K. Ken Nakamura’s U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials Stats Preview with deep OT all-time lists & more.
| Sub 2:11:00 U.S. Men 2022–2023 | ||||
| Conner Mantz | 2:07:47 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Clayton Young | 2:08:00 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Galen Rupp | 2:08:48 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Sam Chelanga | 2:08:50 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Scott Fauble | 2:08:52 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/18/2022 |
| Elkanah Kibet | 2:09:07 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/18/2022 |
| Zach Panning | 2:09:28 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/9/2022 |
| Leonard Korir | 2:09:31 | Paris Marathon | Paris, FRA | 4/2/2023 |
| Futsum Zienasellassie | 2:09:40 | Marathon Rotterdam | Rotterdam | 4/16/2023 |
| Brian Shrader | 2:09:46 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Matt McDonald | 2:09:49 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/9/2022 |
| Nicolas Montanez | 2:09:55 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/9/2022 |
| Teshome Mekonen | 2:10:16 | Berlin Marathon | Berlin, GER | 9/24/2023 |
| CJ Albertson | 2:10:23 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/18/2022 |
| Biya Simbassa | 2:10:34 | Prague Marathon | Prague, CZE | 5/7/2023 |
| Joel Reichow | 2:10:37 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Nathan Martin | 2:10:45 | Grandma’s Marathon | Duluth, MN | 6/17/2023 |
| Reed Fischer | 2:10:54 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/18/2022 |
| Sub-2:26:00 U.S. Women 2022–2023 | ||||
| Emily Sisson | 2:18:29 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/9/2022 |
| Keira D’Amato | 2:19:12 | Houston Marathon | Houston, TX | 1/16/2022 |
| Betsy Saina | 2:21:40 | Tokyo Marathon | Tokyo, JPN | 3/5/2023 |
| Sara Hall | 2:22:10 | World Championships | Eugene, OR | 7/18/2022 |
| Emma Bates | 2:22:10 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/17/2023 |
| Molly Seidel | 2:23:07 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Sara Vaughn | 2:23:24 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Susanna Sullivan | 2:24:27 | London Marathon | London, GBR | 4/23/2023 |
| Gabriella Rooker | 2:24:35 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Aliphine Tuliamuk | 2:24:37 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/17/2023 |
| Dakotah Lindwurm | 2:24:40 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
| Lindsay Flanagan | 2:24:43 | Gold Coast Marathon | GC AUS | 7/3/2022 |
| Nell Rojas | 2:24:51 | Boston Marathon | Boston, MA | 4/17/2023 |
| Sarah Sellers | 2:25:43 | Grandma’s Marathon | Duluth, MN | 6/18/2022 |
| Lauren Hagans | 2:25:56 | Grandma’s Marathon | Duluth, MN | 6/17/2023 |
| Tristin Van Ord | 2:25:58 | Chicago Marathon | Chicago, IL | 10/8/2023 |
