OUR INTERNATIONAL PANEL has crunched all the data for Tokyo, and the overall results say that the U.S. women will enjoy a medal haul almost exactly like the one they had in Rio 5 years ago. The crystal ball says 16 total podium spots, split as 6 gold, 3 silver, 7 bronze. The number of overall medals stays the same last time, as does the number of golds.
Comparing the projections to what happened at the most recent World Championships, the total is up 3 from 13 and the number of wins rises from 4 to 6. Doha also had 6 silvers and 3 bronzes.
We have listed our Top 10 in each event. Any Team USA members who don’t make the top 10 are listed in alphabetical order at the end. The right-hand column is the athlete’s PR and the year in which it was made (except in the relays, where the mark is the best from the qualifying period).
Chart based on best information available as of July 27:
100 METERS
•Punctuationally speaking, 4 hyphens (in the absence of an apostrophe) look to battle it out for the podium places, just as they did at the ’19 WC… SAFP is favored to win her record third title, having PRed at age 34… Right behind her though is defending champion Thompson-Herah… Asher-Smith is undefeated so far… Our top 4 finished 1-4-2-3 in Doha… Americans don’t look like much of a factor.
1.
Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
Jamaica
10.63 (’21)
2.
Elaine Thompson-Herah
Jamaica
10.70 (’16)
3.
Dina Asher-Smith
Great Britain
10.83 (’19)
4.
Marie-Josée Ta Lou
Côte d’Ivoire
10.85 (’18)
5.
Blessing Okagbare
Nigeria
10.79 (’13)
6.
Shericka Jackson
Jamaica
10.77 (’21)
7.
Javianne Oliver
USA
10.96 (’21)
8.
Daryll Neita
Great Britain
11.04 (’21)
9.
Mujinga Kambundji
Switzerland
10.95 (’18)
10.
Teahna Daniels
USA
10.99 (’19)
Other American:
Jenna Prandini 10.92 (’15)
200 METERS
•Reigning world champ Asher-Smith and yearly leader (to say nothing of being No. 2 of all time) Thomas haven’t met since ’18, so there’s a dearth of crossover data in that department. The Briton has more international experience, so she gets the nod… SAFP hasn’t run the half-lapper at a major title meet since she won the WC gold back in ’13. But she’s working on a PR here too and definitely looks podium-bound… Miller-Uibo could end up only in the 400, which would have her running the 400 heats the morning of the 200’s evening final.
1.
Dina Asher-Smith
Great Britain
21.88 (’19)
2.
Gabby Thomas
USA
21.61 (’21)
3.
Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce
Jamaica
21.79 (’21)
4.
Shaunae Miller-Uibo
Bahamas
21.74 (’19)
5.
Shericka Jackson
Jamaica
21.82 (’21)
6.
Elaine Thompson-Herah
Jamaica
21.66 (’15)
7.
Jenna Prandini
USA
21.89 (’21)
8.
Marie-Josée Ta Lou
Côte d’Ivoire
22.08 (’17)
9.
Anavia Battle
USA
21.95 (’21)
10.
Blessing Okagbare
Nigeria
22.04 (’18)
400 METERS
•If she’s doubling back from the 200, SMU will have run the 400 heats and 200 final the night before the 400 semis on Wednesday. Then, fortunately, she’ll catch a break as the 400 final isn’t until Friday as she attempts to defend her title… Rio 6th-placer McPherson is doing the best running of her life at 32, although U.S. champ Hayes beat her convincingly in their meeting early this year… Paulino’s best when the year began was only 51.88… WA’s DSD rules on testosterone removed some major players from the event.
1.
Shaunae Miller-Uibo
Bahamas
48.37 (’19)
2.
Stephenie Ann McPherson
Jamaica
49.61 (’21)
3.
Quanera Hayes
USA
49.72 (’17)
5.
Marileidy Paulino
Dominican Republic
49.99 (’21)
4.
Candice McLeod
Jamaica
49.91 (’21)
6.
Allyson Felix
USA
49.26 (’15)
7.
Roneisha McGregor
Jamaica
50.02 (’21)
8.
Wadeline Jonathas
USA
49.60 (’19)
9.
Cynthia Bolingo
Belgium
50.29 (’21)
10.
Cátia Azevedo
Portugal
50.59 (’21)
800 METERS
•Installing a teenager as the favorite here is certainly unusual, but then, Mu is an unusual talent. Not only does she head the yearly world list, she’s also got the best 400 speed (49.57)… More than half the formcharters have scored PRs already this year, but the 4 DL meets have had 4 different winners and 3 of them aren’t entered here, so meaningful data is hard to come by… Almanza is the only one with a pair of 1:56 clockings.
1.
Athing Mu
USA
1:56.07 (’21)
2.
Rose Mary Almanza
Cuba
1:56.28 (’21)
3.
Jemma Reekie
Great Britain
1:56.96 (’21)
4.
Natoya Goule
Jamaica
1:56.15 (’18)
5.
Ajee’ Wilson
USA
1:55.61 (’17)
6.
Werkwuha Getachew
Ethiopia
1:56.67 (’21)
7.
Raevyn Rogers
USA
1:57.66 (’21)
8.
Habitam Alemu
Ethiopia
1:56.71 (’18)
9.
Keely Hodgkinson
Great Britain
1:57.51 (’21)
10.
Halimah Nakaayi
Uganda
1:58.03 (’21)
1500 METERS
•Two great champions are expected to go head-to-head in this one. We say “expected” because it remains unclear what combination of 15/5/10 Hassan will tackle. Chronologically this would be the middle leg of a triple… Defending Olympic champ Kipyegon and the reigning WC gold medalist are very evenly matched, their PRs being only 0.88 apart and splitting their two meetings this year. Overall, the Kenyan has an 8–6 margin and she gets a narrow edge… Muir shouldn’t be ignored.
1.
Faith Kipyegon
Kenya
3:51.07 (’21)
2.
Sifan Hassan
Netherlands
3:51.95 (’19)
3.
Laura Muir
Great Britain
3:55.22 (’16)
4.
Gabriela Debues-Stafford
Canada
3:56.12 (’19)
5.
Freweyni Hailu
Ethiopia
3:56.28 (’21)
6.
Elle Purrier St. Pierre
USA
3:58.03 (’21)
7.
Winnie Nanyondo
Uganda
3:59.56 (’19)
8.
Diribe Welteji
Ethiopia
3:58.93 (’21)
9.
Lemlem Hailu
Ethiopia
4:00.35 (’21)
10.
Jessica Hull
Australia
4:00.42 (’20)
Other Americans:
Heather MacLean 4:02.09 (’21)
Cory McGee 4:00.67 (’21)
STEEPLECHASE
•WR holder Chepkoech has broken the 9:00 barrier 7 times and Jepkemoi (also known as Kiyeng) never has, close as she is. And Chepkoech is the reigning world champion. Nonetheless, Rio silver winner Jepkemoi gets the edge here, having beaten Chepkoech in all 3 of their ’21 meetings… Rio bronze winner Coburn looked to be approaching her first sub-9:00 when she fell over the last water jump in Monaco… Yearly list leader Norah Tanui is in the process of a nationality change.
1.
Hyvin Jepkemoi
Kenya
9:00.01 (’16)
2.
Beatrice Chepkoech
Kenya
8:44.32 (’18)
3.
Emma Coburn
USA
9:02.35 (’19)
4.
Mekides Abebe Demewoz
Ethiopia
9:02.52 (’21)
5.
Winfred Yavi
Bahrain
9:02.64 (’21)
6.
Gesa-Felicitas Krause
Germany
9:03.30 (’19)
7.
Courtney Frerichs
USA
9:00.85 (’18)
8.
Lomi Muleta
Ethiopia
9:14.03 (’21)
9.
Purity Kirui
Kenya
9:16.91 (’21)
10.
Maruša Mišmaš-Zrimšek
Slovenia
9:16.82 (’21)
Other American:
Val Constien 9:18.34 (’21)
5000 METERS
•WR holder Letesenbet Gidey is in the 10,000 only, removing a major challenge for 2-time reigning world champ Obiri, who also won Rio silver here… If Hassan runs the 1500 as well, she’ll have run a heat of that event at 09:35 on the morning of the 5K final (21:40)… Obiri is 5–1 against Hassan in their career meetings… Tsegay is the yearly world leader and at 3:54.01 has the speed to have won WC 1500 bronze in Doha.
1
Hellen Obiri
Kenya
14:18.37 (’17)
2
Sifan Hassan
Netherlands
14:22.12 (’19)
3
Gudaf Tsegay
Ethiopia
14:13.32 (’21)
4
Agnes Tirop
Kenya
14:20.68 (’19)
5
Senbere Teferi
Ethiopia
14:15.24 (’21)
6
Lilian Rengeruk
Kenya
14:36.05 (’19)
7
Ejgayehu Taye
Ethiopia
14:14.09 (’21)
8
Eilish McColgan
Great Britain
14:28.55 (’21)
9
Yasemin Can
Turkey
14:36.82 (’17)
10
Karissa Schweizer
USA
14:26.34 (’20)
Other Americans:
Elise Cranny 14:48.02 (’20)
Rachel Schneider 14:52.04 (’21)
10,000 METERS
•Fatigue could play a major role in the heat and humidity, as Hassan will be coming back from the 1500 and/or 5000 and Obiri from the 5000. Both will have to contend with WR-setter Gidey, who was runner-up to Hassan at the ’19 WC… If it comes down to a sit-and-kick race, note the 1500 PRs: Hassan 3:51.95, Obiri 3:57.05, Gidey 4:11.11, although the Ethiopian’s mark probably isn’t a true measure of her worth.
1
Sifan Hassan
Netherlands
29:06.82 (’21)
2.
Letesenbet Gidey
Ethiopia
29:01.02 (’21)
3
Hellen Obiri
Kenya
30:35.82 (’19)
4
Tsige Gebreselama
Ethiopia
30:06.01 (’21)
5
Irene Cheptai
Kenya
30:51.39 (’21)
6
Tsehay Gemechu
Ethiopia
30:19.29 (’21)
7
Eilish McColgan
Great Britain
30:58.94 (’21)
8
Sheila Chelangat
Kenya
30:45.81 (’21)
9
Emily Sisson
USA
30:49.57 (’19)
10
Kalkidan Gezahegne
Bahrain
29:50.77 (’21)
Other Americans:
Alicia Monson 31:10.84 (’20)
Karissa Schweizer 30:47.99 (’21)
100 HURDLES
•2-time NCAA winner Camacho-Quinn is on a roll, being unbeaten in 8 meets this year. And the Rio semifinalist dominates, owning the 5 fastest times amongst Tokyo entrants. Harrison has won all 4 of their career meetings, however, leaving the Puerto Rican as only a narrow favorite… Harrison is even more dominant against Amusan, sporting a lifetime record of 12–0… Third American Cunningham has improved all the way from 12.99 to 12.53 this year.
1.
Jasmine Camacho-Quinn
Puerto Rico
12.32 (’21)
2.
Keni Harrison
USA
12.20 (’16)
3.
Tobi Amusan
Nigeria
12.48 (’19)
4.
Christina Clemons
USA
12.51 (’21)
5.
Cindy Sember
Great Britain
12.53 (’21)
6.
Brittany Anderson
Jamaica
12.58 (’21)
7.
Tiffany Porter
Great Britain
12.51 (’14)
8.
Megan Tapper
Jamaica
12.61 (’19)
9.
Gabbi Cunningham
USA
12.53 (’21)
10.
Devynne Charlton
Bahamas
12.61 (’21)
400 HURDLES
•The up-and-coming Bol has a fine mix of speed and technique but she’ll need plenty of each in her Olympic debut if she hopes to beat either of the two Americans, given their status as World Record-setters… McLaughlin currently sits on the WR and looked like she had more in the tank in Eugene… World champion Muhammad also got Rio gold and will be looking to become the event’s first-ever repeat winner… McLaughlin also ran in Rio, finishing 5th in her semi at age 17.
1.
Sydney McLaughlin
USA
51.90 (’21)
2.
Dalilah Muhammad
USA
52.16 (’19)
3.
Femke Bol
Netherlands
52.37 (’21)
4.
Anna Ryzhykova
Ukraine
52.96 (’21)
5.
Janieve Russell
Jamaica
53.46 (’18)
6.
Anna Cockrell
USA
53.70 (’21)
7.
Viktoriya Tkachuk
Ukraine
54.02 (’21)
8.
Jessie Knight
Great Britain
54.69 (’21)
9.
Emma Zapletalová
Slovakia
54.28 (’21)
10.
Zuzana Hejnová
Czech Republic
52.83 (’13)
MARATHON
•None of the WMM races went off this spring, and the year’s 3 fastest runners aren’t entered. Meaning there’s even more dice-rolling than usual here… Kosgei is historically the best of the Kenyan trio, but didn’t look sharp in her one half-marathon outing earlier this year… Chepngetich, on the other hand, broke the WR in that same race, so gets the nod…
1
Ruth Chepngetich
Kenya
2:17:08 (’19)
2
Brigid Kosgei
Kenya
2:14:04 (’19)
3
Peres Chepchirchir
Kenya
2:17:16 (’20)
4
Roza Dereje
Ethiopia
2:18:30 (’19)
5
Mao Ichiyama
Japan
2:20:29 (’20)
6
Birhane Dibaba
Ethiopia
2:18:35 (’20)
7
Lonah Chemtai Salpeter
Israel
2:17:45 (’20)
8
Tigist Girma
Ethiopia
2:19:52 (’19)
9
Helalia Johannes
Namibia
2:19:52 (’20)
10.
Mizuki Matsuda
Japan
2:21:47 (’20)
The Americans:
Sally Kipyego 2:25:10 (’19)
Molly Seidel 2:25:13 (’20)
Aliphine Tuliamuk 2:26:50 (’19)
20K WALK
•Look for the powerful Chinese team to score the first-ever Olympic medal sweep. Yang, Liu & Qieyang moved to 1-2-3 on the all-time list in March. As the defending Olympic champ and reigning WC champ Liu gets the nod over Yang, herself the WC gold medalist in ’17… Rio 4th-placer Palmisano has a good big-race résumé and looks like the best of the mortals.
1.
Hong Liu
China
1:24:27 (’21)
2.
Jiayu Yang
China
1:23:49 (’21)
3.
Shenjie Qieyang
China
1:24:45 (’21)
4.
Antonella Palmisano
Italy
1:26:36 (’17)
5.
Eleonora Giorgi
Italy
1:26:17 (’15)
6.
Mária Pérez
Spain
1:26:36 (’18)
7.
Erica de Sena
Brazil
1:26:59 (’17)
8.
Sandra Arenas
Colombia
1:28:03 (’19)
9.
Alegna González
Mexico
1:28:40 (’21)
10.
Elvira Khasanova
Russia
1:26:43 (’20)
The American:
Robyn Stevens 1:33:34 (’19)
4 x 100
•With the Nos. 1, 2 & 6 from the 100 formchart, what’s not to like about Jamaica, silver medalists at the last two Games?… Great Britain returns three-quarters of the team that won Rio bronze and improved to Doha silver… Britain can be expected to pass well, but the U.S. foursome (whoever it turns out to be) will be woefully shy on familiarity. Still, there’s plenty of elemental speed to work with and a medal is clearly a viable option… Germany looked like a medalist until training-camp injuries felled two of the scheduled members.
1.
Jamaica
41.44 (’19)
2.
Great Britain
41.85 (’19)
3.
United States
42.10 (’19)
4.
Netherlands
42.18 (’19)
5.
China
42.50 (’19)
6.
Switzerland
42.18 (’19)
7.
Germany
41.67 (’19)
8.
Brazil
43.04 (’19)
9.
France
42.93 (’19)
10.
Trinidad
42.71 (’19)
4 x 400
•Based on the 400’s formchart you could easily be led to believe that Jamaica (seeds 2, 4 & 7) has the edge over the U.S. (3, 6, 8). But Team USA has an ace in the hole: 3 of them in fact. That would be the option of pulling in runners from other events and suddenly Athing Mu is available from the 800 and Sydney McLaughlin and Dalilah Muhammad from the 400H. That oughta do the trick… American foursomes haven’t lost in the Olympics since ’92, but Jamaica will assure it’s not easy to continue the string.
1.
United States
3:18.92 (’19)
2.
Jamaica
3:22.37 (’19)
3.
Great Britain
3:23.02 (’19)
4.
Poland
3:21.89 (’19)
5.
Bahamas
3:29.40 (’21)
6.
Canada
3:25.86 (’19)
7.
Netherlands
3:27.40 (’19)
8.
France
3:29.66 (’19)
9.
Belgium
3:26.58 (’19)
10.
Ukraine
3:26.57 (’19)
MIXED-SEX 4 x 400
•This event made its big-time debut at the ’19 WC, where, not unexpectedly Team USA dominated. Other than noting that the sprint-rich U.S. should dominate again, doing a meaningful formchart is beyond us at this point, given that it’s not clear which people various nations will slot here with the men’s and women’s 4x4s still to come. Each nation has 2 men, 2 women, who can run in any order they choose. In Doha the Americans ran M/W/W/M in setting a World Record of 3:09.34.
HIGH JUMP
•If the Russian ban hadn’t kept Lasitskene out of Rio she’d likely be the defending champion. As it is, she’s “only” the 3-time reigning world champ outdoors and 2-timer indoors. And she has cleared the 2-meter barrier (6-6¾) for 8 years in a row. But at 28 it looks as if she’s slowing down currently with a balky hip, so we give the edge to the 19-year-old Mahuchikh, who won their only meeting this year. Mahuchikh has 8 over 2.00 (including a PR) this year, Lasitskene 5… Cunningham & McDermott have PRs too.
1.
Yaroslava Mahuchikh
Ukraine
2.06 | 6-9 (’21)
2.
Mariya Lasitskene
Russia
2.06 | 6-9 (’17)
3.
Vashti Cunningham
USA
2.02 | 6-7½ (’21)
4.
Nicola McDermott
Australia
2.01 | 6-7 (’21)
5.
Nadezhda Dubovitskaya
Kazakhstan
2.00 | 6-6¾ (’21)
6.
Eleanor Patterson
Australia
1.99 | 6-6¼ (’20)
7.
Iryna Herashchenko
Ukraine
1.99 | 6-6¼ (’19)
8.
Yuliya Levchenko
Ukraine
2.02 | 6-7½ (’19)
9.
Salome Lang
Switzerland
1.97 | 6-5½ (’21)
10.
Karyna Demidik
Belarus
2.00 | 6-6¾ (’19)
Other Americans:
Tynita Butts-Townsend 1.93 | 6-4 (’19)
Rachel McCoy 1.96 | 6-5 (’21)
POLE VAULT
•Nageotte and Sidorova are very evenly matched, right down to sharing PRs. The Russian is the reigning world champ and has a 12–8 lifetime edge over the American, but the OT winner has taken both of their meetings this year and has a better sequence of marks (5 of the world’s 8 highest outdoor meets of the year)… Stefanídi and Morris went 1–2 in Rio but have found major wins hard to come by this year.
1
Katie Nageotte
USA
4.95 | 16-2½ (’21)
2.
Anzhelika Sidorova
Russia
4.95 | 16-2½ (’20)
3
Sandi Morris
USA
5.00 | 16-4¾ (’16)
4
Holly Bradshaw
Great Britain
4.90 | 16-¾ (’21)
5
Nina Kennedy
Australia
4.82 | 15-9¾ (’21)
6
Katerína Stefanídi
Greece
4.91 | 16-1¼ (’17)
7
Iryna Zhuk
Belarus
4.74 | 15-6½ (’21)
8
Tina Šutej
Slovenia
4.75 | 15-7 (’20)
9
Angelica Moser
Switzerland
4.75 | 15-7 (’21)
10
Nikoléta Kiriakopoúlou
Greece
4.83 | 15-10 (’15)
Other American:
Morgann LeLeux 4.70 |15-5 (’21)
LONG JUMP
•The much-medaled Reese won gold in ’12 and silver last time out to go with 7 WC titles (4 outdoors, 3 in). She’s closing in on 35, but won the OT with a mark just 3cm off the yearly world lead… Reigning world champ Mihambo is very evenly matched with Španović, who has 2 Diamond League wins this season… NCAA champ Davis has a good collection of far jumps this year; Doha runner-up Bekh-Romanchuk does not.
1.
Brittney Reese
USA
7.31 | 23-11¾ (’16)
2.
Malaika Mihambo
Germany
7.30 | 23-11½ (’19)
3.
Ivana Španović
Serbia
7.24 | 23-9¼ (’17)
4.
Tara Davis
USA
7.14 | 23-5¼ (’21)
5.
Maryna Bekh-Romanchuk
Ukraine
6.96 | 22-10¼ (’20)
6.
Ese Brume
Nigeria
7.17 | 23-6½ (’21)
7.
Darya Klishina
Russia
7.05 | 23-1¾ (’11)
8.
Jazmin Sawyers
Great Britain
6.90 | 22-7¾ (’21)
9.
Lorraine Ugen
Great Britain
7.05 | 23-1¾ (’18)
10.
Quanesha Burks
USA
6.96 | 22-10¼ (’21)
TRIPLE JUMP
•Two big questions surround Rio runner-up Rojas, and neither of them is, “Will she win?” Instead, they are, “By how much will she win?” and “Can the World Record survive her onslaught?” The ultra-dominant Venezuelan hasn’t lost since August of ’19… Doha silver medalist Ricketts is knocking on the door of the elite 15m club… Williams has won 5 straight against AR holder Orji, who was 4th in Rio.
1.
Yulimar Rojas
Venezuela
15.43 | 50-7½ (’20)
2.
Shanieka Ricketts
Jamaica
14.98 | 49-1¾ (’21)
3.
Kim Williams
Jamaica
14.69 | 48-2½ (’21)
4.
Keturah Orji
USA
14.92 | 48-11¼ (’21)
5.
Liadagmis Povea
Cuba
14.93 | 48-11¾ (’21)
6.
Patricia Mamona
Portugal
14.65 | 48-¾ (’16)
7.
Ana Peleteiro
Spain
14.61 | 47-11¼ (’21)
8.
Tori Franklin
USA
14.84 | 48-8¼ (’18)
9.
Senni Salminen
Finland
14.63 | 48-0 (’21)
10.
Leyanis Pérez
Cuba
14.53 | 47-8 (’21)
Other American:
Jasmine Moore 14.39 | 47-2½ (’21)
SHOT
•2-time reigning world champ Gong is throwing at near-PR levels as former 2-time Olympic gold medalist Adams is far from hers. The Kiwi has dominated their history, but the two haven’t met since ’18 and Gong has more than a 2-foot edge on seasonal bests… Ramsey and Saunders scored nice PRs at the OT but we’ve slotted them behind the consistent Dongmo, who has 8 meets at 19m or better compared to Ramsey’s and Saunders’ 2 apiece.
1.
Lijiao Gong
China
20.43 | 67-½ (’16)
2
Valerie Adams
New Zealand
21.24 | 69-8¼ (’11)
3
Auriol Dongmo
Portugal
19.75 | 64-9¾ (’21)
4
Jessica Ramsey
USA
20.12 | 66-¼ (’21)
5
Raven Saunders
USA
19.96 | 65-6 (’21)
6
Danniel Thomas-Dodd
Jamaica
19.55 | 64-1¼ (’19)
7
Aliona Dubitskaya
Belarus
19.65 | 64-5¾ (’21)
8
Fanny Roos
Sweden
19.34 | 63-5½ (’21)
9
Adelaide Aquilla
USA
19.12 | 62-8¾ (’21)
10
Jiayuan Song
China
19.32 | 63-4¾ (’21)
DISCUS
•This projects as a nifty 3-way battle among the 2-time defending Olympic gold medalist (Perković), the reigning world champ (Pérez) and the hard-charging American Record holder (Allman)… Allman won the only meet this year that featured all three, but she’s still raw internationally, so give her the bronze… Perković and Pérez have split their 4 meetings this year, with the Croatian taking the last two so we give her the top spot based on momentum.
1.
Sandra Perković
Croatia
71.41 | 234-3 (’17)
2.
Yaimé Pérez
Cuba
69.39 | 227-8 (’19)
3.
Valarie Allman
USA
70.15 | 230-2 (’20)
4.
Yang Chen
China
67.03 | 219-11 (’18)
5.
Kristin Pudenz
Germany
66.31 | 217-6 (’21)
6.
Liliana Cá
Portugal
66.40 | 217-10 (’21)
7.
Bin Feng
China
65.45 | 214-8 (’19)
8.
Mélina Robert-Michon
France
66.73 | 218-11 (’16)
9.
Denia Caballero
Cuba
70.65 | 231-9 (’15)
10.
Jorinde van Klinken
Netherlands
70.22 | 230-4 (’21)
Other Americans:
Kelsey Card 63.52 | 208-5 (’16)
Rachel Dincoff 64.41 | 211-4 (’21)
HAMMER
•Włodarczyk may be the defending champion and WR holder, but she’s got her hands full with yearly list-leader Price, who has won their last two meetings. The reigning world champion American also has 6 meets over 75m this year to the Pole’s 1. Włodarczyk is coming back from a pair of knee surgeries… Interestingly, Price and Włodarczyk both have losing seasonal records to their teammates, Andersen and Kopron.
1.
Deanna Price
USA
263-6 | 80.31 (’21)
2.
Anita Włodarczyk
Poland
272-3 | 82.98 (’16)
3.
Brooke Andersen
USA
256-6 | 78.18 (’21)
4.
Malwina Kopron
Poland
252-1 | 76.85 (’17)
5.
Alexandra Tavernier
France
247-3 | 75.38 (’21)
6.
Zheng Wang
China
254-10 | 77.68 (’14)
7.
Gwen Berry
USA
255-2 | 77.78 (’18)
8.
Annette Echikunwoke
Nigeria
247-8 | 75.49 (’21)
9.
Rosa Rodríguez
Venezuela
241-7 | 73.64 (’13)
10.
Hanna Skydan
Azerbaijan
247-0 | 75.29 (’17)
JAVELIN
•After finishing 4th in Rio (with an NR in the qualifying round) Andrejczyk needed shoulder surgery, which apparently has acted up a bit this year. But she’s in the form of her life, pacing the yearly list. She had the farthest throws in both DL meets to date and has handled Hussong 3–0… Lu has medaled in the last 3 WCs (a silver and 2 bronze) but will have her hands full holding off the surging AR setter Malone.
1.
Maria Andrejczyk
Poland
71.40 | 234-3 (’21)
2
Christin Hussong
Germany
69.19 | 227-0 (’21)
3.
Huihui Lu
China
67.98 | 223-0 (’19)
4.
Maggie Malone
USA
67.40 | 221-1 (’21)
5.
Shiying Liu
China
67.29 | 220-9 (’20)
6.
Kathryn Mitchell
Australia
68.92 | 226-1 (’18)
7.
Barbora Špotáková
Czech Republic
72.28 | 237-2 (’08)
8.
Tatsiana Khaladovich
Belarus
67.47 | 221-4 (’18)
9.
Liz Gleadle
Canada
64.83 | 212-8 (’15)
10.
Liveta Jasiūnaitė
Lithuania
63.98 | 209-10 (’19)
Other Americans:
Ariana Ince 63.54 | 208-5 (’19)
Kara Winger 66.67 | 218-8 (’10)
HEPTATHLON
•An expected titanic rematch between the defending Olympic (Thiam) and reigning world (Johnson-Thompson) champions lost a lot of steam with the Briton’s ongoing Achilles problems… Thiam hasn’t been at her previous levels either but led the world indoors with a PR pentathlon, so remains the one to beat… Krizsán and Vetter went 1–2 at Götzis… Kunz beat Bougard at the OT but will likely find it hard to duplicate the rash of PRs which led to her big score.
1…
Nafi Thiam
Belgium
7013 (’17)
2.
Xénia Krizsán
Hungary
6651 (’21)
3
Anouk Vetter
Netherlands
6636 (’17)
4
Erica Bougard
USA
6725 (’19)
5
Annie Kunz
USA
6703 (’21)
6
Yorgelis Rodríguez
Cuba
6742 (’18)
7.
Katarina Johnson-Thompson
Great Britain
6981 (’19)
8
Kendell Williams
USA
6683 (’21)
9
Verena Mayr
Austria
6591 (’19)
10.
Ivona Dadic
Austria
6522 (’18)
Thanks from the T&FN staff to those correspondents who aided us in crafting these prognostications: Jonathan Berenbom, Sean Hartnett, Richard Hymans, Dave Johnson, Kevin Saylors, Jesse Squire, Steve Vaitones & Frank Zarnowski.