2019 World Championships Men’s Top 10 Predictions

OUR INTERNATIONAL PANEL has crunched all the data, and the overall results say that the U.S. men will enjoy a better meet than the one they had in London 2 years ago. The number of overall medals creeps up slightly, from 13 to 15, and the number of golds takes a big jump, from 3 to 7.

If a nation is listed with 4 entries that means it has a Wild Card in that event. Any Americans who don’t make the top 10 are listed in alphabetical order at the end of the event. The right-hand column is the athlete’s PR and the year in which it was made (except in the relays, where the mark is the best from this year or last).

Chart updated as of September 26 (this is the final update).

100 METERS
•Coleman hasn’t run a race since the USATF Championships at the end of July. Does he need a first-round rust-buster?… De Grasse is showing signs of returning to his Rio ’16 form… Defending champ Gatlin, 37, tweaked his left hamstring at the start of the month. Although his manager said it wasn’t serious he’s downgraded from an earlier status as podium favorite… Xie looks out of place with a PR not in the 9s, but he has been claiming good wins over faster people.
1.	Christian Coleman	USA	9.79 (’18)
2.	Andre De Grasse	Canada	9.91 (’16)
3.	Akani Simbine	South Africa	9.89 (’16)
4.	Justin Gatlin	USA	9.74 (’15)
5.	Yohan Blake	Jamaica	9.69 (’12)
6.	Zhenye Xie	China	10.01 (’19)
7.	Mike Rodgers	USA	9.85 (’11)
8.	Arthur Cissé	Côte d’Ivoire	9.93 (’19)
9.	Aaron Brown	Canada	9.96 (’19)
10.	Adam Gemili	Great Britain	9.97 (’15)
Other American:
Christopher Belcher 9.93 (’17)

200 METERS
•Only Michael Johnson (19.32 in ’96) stands higher on the all-time U.S. list than Lyles. We expect a new PR from Lyles, but will it be fast enough to claim the American Record? Look at his stunning sequence of times in finals this year: 19.72, 19.50, 19.78, 19.65, 19.74… Lyles gave up his 100 spot to focus here, but Coleman & De Grasse will be doubling back… Defending champ Guliyev will have trouble making it to the podium… Oduduru will be dangerous if he returns to his NCAA form.
1.	Noah Lyles	USA	19.50 (’19)
2.	Christian Coleman	USA	19.85 (’17)
3.	Andre De Grasse	Canada	19.80 (’16)
4.	Ramil Guliyev	Turkey	19.76 (’18)
5.	Alex Quiñónes	Ecuador	19.87 (’19)
6.	Zhenye Xie	China	19.88 (’19)
7.	Adam Gemili	Great Britain	19.97 (’16)
8.	Aaron Brown	Canada	19.95 (’19)
9.	Kenny Bednarek	USA	19.82(A) (’19)
10.	Divine Oduduru	Nigeria	19.73 (’19)
Other American:
Rodney Rowe 20.12 (’19)

400 METERS
•The battle for gold between Norman and Kerley should be titanic, with ’17 silver medalist Gardiner not to be taken lightly… Kerley leads the lifetime series with Norman 3–2, but list leader Norman has won 2 of their 3 meetings this year. Norman got a Wild Card by winning the DL Final. They rate Nos. =4 & 7 on the all-time world list.
1.	Michael Norman	USA	43.45 (’19)
2.	Fred Kerley	USA	43.64 (’19)
3.	Steven Gardiner	Bahamas	43.87 (’18)
4.	Akeem Bloomfield	Jamaica	43.94 (’18)
5.	Kirani James	Grenada	43.74 (’14)
6.	Abbas Abubaker	Bahrain	44.90 (’19)
7.	Anthony Zambrano	Colombia	44.68 (’19)
8.	Demish Gaye	Jamaica	44.55 (’17)
9.	Machel Cedenio	Trinidad	44.01 (’16)
10.	Matthew Hudson-Smith	Great Britain	44.48 (’16)
Other Americans:
Vernon Norwood 44.40 (’19)
Nathan Strother 44.29 (’19)

800 METERS
•Brazier’s Wottle-like close to win the Diamond League title over Amos casts him in the role of favorite. Amos produced the year’s fastest time, 1:41.89 in Monaco, but the American wasn’t in that race and had earlier beaten Amos in Rome… McBride was 3rd in both the Rome and Zürich races… We only have Kszczot at No. 9, but the 2-time silver medalist is a consummate tactician and shouldn’t be ignored… No American has ever won this event.
1.	Donavan Brazier	USA	1:42.70 (’19)
2.	Nijel Amos	Botswana	1:41.73 (’12)
3.	Brandon McBride	Canada	1:43.20 (’18)
4.	Ferguson Cheruiyot	Kenya	1:42.54 (’19)
5.	Emmanuel Korir	Kenya	1:42.05 (’18)
6.	Clayton Murphy	USA	1:42.93 (’16)
7.	Amel Tuka	Bosnia	1:42.51 (’15)
8.	Wesley Vázquez	Puerto Rico	1:44.40 (’19)
9.	Adam Kszczot	Poland	1:43.30 (’11)
10.	Marco Arop	Canada	1:44.25 (’19)
Other Americans:
Bryce Hoppel 1:44.41 (’19)
Brannon Kidder 1:45.39 (’19)

1500 METERS
•Reigning champ Elijah Manangoi had to withdraw with a problematic hamstring, but Cheruiyot would. have been the favorite in any case. The yearly world leader at 3:28.77, he also had a 3:29.77 to claim the season’s only sub-3:30 times. The ’17 silver medalist comes to town on a 6-race win streak that includes 5 Diamond League races… Wunderkind Jakob Ingebrigtsen, just turned 19, has showed good racing savvy to go with his quick times. He and brother Filip are slated to be doubling back from the 5000… Among savvy milers, they don’t come much better than Centrowitz, who already owns WC silver (’13) & bronze (’11) to go with his Rio Olympic gold.
1.	Timothy Cheruiyot	Kenya	3:28.41 (’18)
2.	Jakob Ingebrigtsen	Norway	3:30.16 (’19)
3.	Ronald Musagala	Uganda	3:30.58 (’19)
4.	Ayanleh Souleiman	Djibouti	3:29.58 (’14)
5.	Filip Ingebrigtsen	Norway	3:30.01 (’18)
6.	George Manangoi	Kenya	3:31.49 (’19)
7.	Matthew Centrowitz	USA	3:30.40 (’15)
8.	Samuel Tefera	Ethiopia	3:31.04 (’19)
9.	Taoufik Makhloufi	Algeria	3:28.75 (’15)
10.	Ronald Kwemoi	Kenya	3:28.81 (’14)
Other Americans:
Craig Engels 3:34.04 (’19)
Ben Blankenship 3:34.26 (’16)

STEEPLE
•Defending champ Kipruto has been nursing a foot injury and has only an 8:13 seasonal best, but he says, “I know myself better than anybody else. It has not been an easy season for me, but what I can promise is that I will hit form when it matters most.” So he gets mention down at No. 9, while ’17’s silver medalist, El Bakkali, ascends to the top… Kigen was hot in the early season, but slowed in the second half… DL winner Wale only just recently turned 19… American Record holder Evan Jager, a finalist in the last 3 editions of the meet, is out with a stress fracture in a foot.
1.	Soufiane El Bakkali	Morocco	7:58.15 (’18)
2.	Benjamin Kigen	Kenya	8:05.12 (’19)
3.	Getnet Wale	Ethiopia	8:05.51 (’19)
4.	Lamecha Girma	Ethiopia	8:08.18 (’19)
5.	Hilary Bor	USA	8:08.41 (’19)
6.	Chala Beyo	Ethiopia	8:06.48 (’19)
7.	Abraham Kibiwott	Kenya	8:05.72 (’19)
8.	Fernando Carro	Spain	8:05.69 (’19)
9.	Conseslus Kipruto	Kenya	8:00.12 (’16)
10.	Leonard Bett	Kenya	8:08.61 (’19)
Other Americans:
Andy Bayer 8:14.46 (’17)
Stanley Kebenei 8:08.30 (’17)

 

5000 METERS
•The Ethiopians are hard to sort out (4 of them because of Edris’s defending champ Wild Card). Barega didn’t win any of his 4 races, but was always around 13:00 (13:04, 12:53, 13:01, 12:59) and had 3 DL runner-up finishes. Yearly list leader Haile had a trio of sub-13:00s and a DL win but Barega gets the nod based on more big-time international experience… Ahmed (10,000) and Ingebrigtsen (1500) will be running with future races to come… Look for American leader Chelimo to be mixing it up in the final homestretch.
1.	Selemon Barega	Ethiopia	12:43.02 (’18)
2.	Telahun Haile	Ethiopia	12:52.98 (’19)
3.	Moh Ahmed	Canada	12:54.92 (’19)
4.	Jakob Ingebrigtsen	Norway	13:02.03 (’19)
5.	Nicholas Kimeli	Kenya	12:57.90 (’19)
6.	Paul Chelimo	USA	12:57.55 (’18)
7.	Abadi Hadis	Ethiopia	12:56.27 (’18)
8.	Muktar Edris	Ethiopia	12:54.83 (’14)
9.	Birhanu Balew	Bahrain	12:56.26 (’19)
10.	Stewart McSweyn	Australia	13:05.63 (’19)
Other Americans:
Hassan Mead 13:02.80 (’14)
Ben True 13:02.74 (’14)

10,000 METERS
•The ’17 silver medalist in the 10K, Cheptegei hasn’t yet run a track 10K this year, but added the World XC title to his résumé in March and showed oval savvy with a PR 12:57.41 win in the DL Final 5000… Gebrhiwet’s PR gave him the yearly world lead and he has a 27:01.02 (also a PR at the time) to back it up. He won 5K medals in both ’13 (silver) & ’15 (bronze)… The 2-time reigning World Indoor 3000 champ, Kejelcha got his 10K PR in his July debut… Lomong is no stranger to big finals across a variety of events, having run a WC 1500, WIC 3000 and OG 5000.
1.	Joshua Cheptegei	Uganda	26:49.64 (’17)
2.	Hagos Gebrhiwet	Ethiopia	26:48.95 (’19)
3.	Yomif Kejelcha	Ethiopia	26:49.99 (’19)
4.	Lopez Lomong	USA	27:30.06 (’19)
5.	Rhonex Kipruto	Kenya	26:50.16 (’19)
6.	Moh Ahmed	Canada	27:02.35 (’17)
7.	Selemon Barega	Ethiopia	26:49.46 (’19)
or	Anduamiak Belehu	Ethiopia	26:53.15 (’19)
8.	Jacob Kiplimo	Uganda	27:26.68 (’16)
9.	Rogers Kwemoi	Kenya	27:25.23 (’16)
10.	Aron Kifle	Eritrea	27:09.92 (’17)
Other Americans:
Shadrack Kipchirchir 27:07.55 (’17)
Leonard Korir 27:34.01 (’19)

110 HURDLES
•Give a narrow-narrow edge to DL champ Ortega, who is 2–1 over McLeod in their 3 meetings this year. Reigning Olympic/world champ McLeod wasn’t in the DL Final, but got a seasonal best 13.07 in his last pre-Doha race, saying, “I did it! Like my coach told me, I just got out and took control. Everything was good—the start, the finish and every hurdle. You could say it was a perfect race.” He will need more than a 13.07—more like a sub-13—to win Doha gold… Big question I: was the long collegiate season too much for Roberts and yearly list leader Holloway? Big question II: will reigning world No. 1 Shubenkov be recovered from his Rabat DL crash in time?
1.	Orlando Ortega	Spain	12.94 (’15)
2.	Omar McLeod	Jamaica	12.90 (’17)
3.	Daniel Roberts	USA	13.00 (’19)
4.	Sergey Shubenkov	Russia	12.92 (’18)
5.	Grant Holloway	USA	12.98 (’19)
6.	Wenjun Xie	China	13.17 (’19)
7.	Gabriel Constantino	Brazil	13.18 (’19)
8.	Devon Allen	USA	13.03 (’16)
9.	Andy Pozzi	Great Britain	13.14 (’17)
10.	Pascal Martinot-Lagarde	France	12.95 (’14)

400 HURDLES
•Defending champ Warholm’s 48.35 winner in ’17 was the slowest in meet history, but not only is the Norwegian likely to break 48 this time out, the 47-second barrier is also in grave danger. Indeed, this could be the event most likely to see a new World Record in Doha. Warholm could break Kevin Young’s longstanding 46.78 from the ’92 Olympics and not win. He could be beaten by Benjamin and/or Samba (who is still recovering from injury)… Nobody appears likely to challenge the big 3.
1.	Karsten Warholm	Norway	46.92 (’19)
2.	Rai Benjamin	USA	46.98 (’19)
3.	Abderrahmane Samba	Qatar	46.98 (’18)
4.	Ludvy Vaillant	France	48.30 (’19)
5.	Kyron McMaster	British Virgin Islands	47.54 (’18)
6.	Yasmani Copello	Turkey	47.81 (’18)
7.	TJ Holmes	USA	48.30 (’18)
8.	Alison Dos Santos	Brazil	48.45 (’19)
9.	Kemar Mowatt	Jamaica	48.49 (’17)
10.	Thomas Barr	Ireland	47.97 (’16)
Other American:
Amere Lattin 48.66 (’19)

MARATHON
•As always, the race will be pretty much devoid of big names, given the proximity to the big fall 26-milers… Ethiopia is always marathon-strong, and is favored for a 1–2 here, but the East African powerhouse actually hasn’t had a winner since ’01. Geremew’s PR at London in April made him the fastest Ethiopian ever, with Wasihun just 21 seconds behind… Look for defending champ Kirui to break up a Kenyan medal sweep… At the risk of stating the obvious, handling the heat will obviously be the key here. Perhaps there will be lessons to be learned from the earlier women’s race.
1.	Mosinet Geremew	Ethiopia	2:02:55 (’19)
2.	Mule Wasihun	Ethiopia	2:03:16 (’19)
3.	Geoffrey Kirui	Kenya	2:06:27 (’16)
4.	Lelisa Desisa	Ethiopia	2:04:45 (’13)
or	Tola Shura	Ethiopia	2:04:49 (’18)
5.	Amos Kipruto	Kenya	2:05:43 (’17)
6.	Laban Korir	Kenya	2:05:54 (’16)
7.	Kaan Kigen Özbilen	Turkey	2:05:27 (’19)
8.	Paul Lonyangata	Kenya	2:06:10 (’17)
9.	Tadesse Abraham	Switzerland	2:06:40 (’16)
10.	Stephen Mokoka	South Africa	2:07:40 (’15)
The Americans:
Shadrack Biwott 2:12:01 (’16)
Andrew Epperson 2:13:11 (’19)
Elkanah Kibet 2:11:31 (’15)

20K WALK
•The yearly list is dominated by Japanese times from the Asian Championships, but only list leader Yamanishi, who turned in history’s No. 3 time, is given a nod here. He confirmed his status as the favorite with a 4-second win over Stano at the important La Coruña stop on the Walk Challenge circuit. That Spanish race provides the best template for sorting out this year’s top performers… Defending champ Eider Arévalo of Colombia hasn’t broken 1:21 this year… The U.S. hasn’t had a qualifier since ’11.
1.	Toshikazu Yamanishi	Japan	1:17:15 (’19)
2.	Massimo Stano	Italy	1:17:45 (’19)
3.	Perseus Karlström	Sweden	1:18:07 (’19)
4.	Vasiliy Mizinov	Russia	1:18:41 (’19)
5.	Christopher Linke	Germany	1:18:42 (’19)
6.	Kaihua Wang	China	1:17:54 (’17)
7.	Caio Bonfim	Brazil	1:18:47 (’19)
8.	Diego García	Spain	1:18:58 (’19)
9.	Zelin Cai	China	1:19:26 (’16)
10.	Tom Bosworth	Great Britain	1:19:38 (’18)
No qualified Americans

50K WALK
•There isn’t a lot of ’19 data to go on, with basically everybody having only a single 50 (frequently at home) or no 50s at all. WR holder/defending champ Diniz claimed the yearly list lead with a 3:37:43 that’s better than anybody else’s PR, so he’s the logical favorite… Wang and Suzuki each PRed in winning a home race, while Olympic champ Tóth has no races at any distance… Now, about that heat…
1.	Yohann Diniz	France	3:33:12 (’17)
2.	Qin Wang	China	3:38:02 (’19)
3.	Yusuke Suzuki	Japan	3:39:07 (’19)
4.	Matej Tóth	Slovakia	3:40:58 (’16)
5.	Håvard Haukenes	Norway	3:42:50 (’19)
6.	Tomohiro Noda	Japan	3:39:47 (’19)
7.	Wenbin Niu	China	3:41:04 (’19)
8.	Dzmitry Dziubin	Belarus	3:45:51 (’19)
9.	Yadong Luo	China	3:41:15 (’19)
10.	Hayato Katsuki	Japan	3:44:31 (’18)
No qualified Americans

4 x 100 RELAY
•As is frequently the case, the U.S. has the best collection of individuals, but with every major championships that goes by there are doubts about their ability to get the stick safely around. The coaching staff has given no indications of who the preferred foursome will be, but a combo—in alpha order—of Christian Coleman, Justin Gatlin, Noah Lyles & Mike Rodgers would be a fearsome foursome indeed. Christopher Belcher and Cravon Gillespie are also in the pool… Nonetheless, we’re taking the conservative route, preferring well-drilled teams from defending champ Britain and Japan for the top two spots… Jamaica’s coach has been lamenting about a lack of practice for his squad.
1.	Great Britain	37.60 (’19)
2.	Japan	37.78 (’19)
3.	USA	38.07 (’19)
4.	Jamaica	38.35 (’18)
5.	Brazil	38.01 (’19)
6.	Netherlands	37.99 (’19)
7.	Turkey	37.98 (’18)
8.	China	38.16 (’19)
9.	Canada	38.26 (’19)
10.	Ghana	38.30 (’19)

4 x 400 RELAY
•Every few years the U.S. gets upset here (see London ’17), but with the Michael Norman/Fred Kerley axis in place, this doesn’t project as one of them. The rest of 400 squad is Nathan Strother and Vernon Norwood, with Michael Cherry and Wil London added to the pool. And then there’s another big weapon waiting to be used: a 43.6r performer in the person of long hurdler Rai Benjamin… Jamaica, with its top 2 projected to make the 400 final, looks like the biggest challenger… It would be great for host Qatar if its four best are all healthy and can sneak into the meet-closing finale.
1.	United States	2:59.30(A) (’19)
2.	Jamaica	3:00.99(A) (’19)
3.	Botswana	3:01.78 (’18)
4.	South Africa	3:02.13(A) (’19)
5.	Great Britain	3:00.36 (’18)
6.	Trinidad	3:00.81 (’19)
7.	Colombia	3:01.41 (’19)
8.	Italy	3:02.04 (’19)
9.	India	3:01.85 (’18)
10.	Belgium	2:59.47 (’18)

HIGH JUMP
•It’s like gravity is selectively picking on men’s high jumpers this year, as high clearances are turning out to be hard to make, and even harder to make consistently. So we give a slight edge to outdoor world leader Nedasekau, who scored his PR mark in the Europe-U.S. dual meet, where he had some home-crowd help… Barshim hasn’t been himself since ankle surgery in the summer of ’18, but he’ll get a home-crowd and we figure that’ll be enough to put him on the podium… Capable of a big surprise despite not making our Top 10: Barshim’s great rival Bogdan Bondarenko, a 7-11¼ (2.42) performer back in ’14.
1.	Maksim Nedasekau	Belarus	2.35 | 7-8½ (’19)
2.	Ilya Ivanyuk	Russia	2.33 | 7-7¾ (’19)
3.	Mutaz Barshim	Qatar	2.43 | 7-11½ (’14)
4.	Mikhail Akimenko	Russia	2.33 | 7-7¾ (’19)
5.	Andrii Protsenko	Ukraine	2.40 | 7-10½ (’14)
6.	Brandon Starc	Australia	2.36 | 7-8¾ (’18)
7.	Yu Wang	China	2.34 | 7-8 (’19)
8.	Michael Mason	Canada	2.33 | 7-7¾ (’15)
9.	Majed El Dein Ghazal	Syria	2.36 | 7-8¾ (’16)
10.	Tihomir Ivanov	Bulgaria	2.31 | 7-7 (’17)
The Americans:
Keenon Laine 2.28 | 7-5¾ (’19)
Shelby McEwen 2.31 | 7-7 (’19)
Jeron Robinson 2.31 | 7-7 (’18)

POLE VAULT
•One of the greatest things about vaulting is that the big names don’t make a habit of ducking each other. Kendricks and Duplantis have already met 6 times this year, splitting the series 3-3. Kendricks and Lisek have gone head-to-head 16 (!) times, the American ahead 11–5. Duplantis and Lisek have 7 matchups, the Swede up 4–3. All three look ready for the 6.00 (19-8¼) barrier. Nobody has ever jumped 6.00 or higher at the Worlds and lost.
1.	Sam Kendricks	USA	6.06 | 19-10½ (’19)
2.	Mondo Duplantis	Sweden	6.05 | 19-10¼ (’18)
3.	Piotr Lisek	Poland	6.02 | 19-9 (’19)
4.	Paweł Wojciechowski	Poland	5.93 | 19-5½ (’17)
5.	Cole Walsh	USA	5.83 | 19-1½ (’19)
6.	Thiago Braz	Brazil	6.03 | 19-9¼ (’16)
7.	Renaud Lavillenie	France	6.16 | 20-2½ (’14)
8.	Valentin Lavillenie	France	5.82 | 19-1 (’19)
9.	Raphael Holzdeppe	Germany	5.94 | 19-5¾ (’15)
10.	Augusto Dutra	Brazil	5.82 | 19-1 (’13)
Other Americans:
Zach Bradford 5.77 | 18-11 (’19)
KC Lightfoot 5.76 |18-10¾ (’19)

LONG JUMP
•Echevarría heads the yearly list with a mark just 2cm off his lifetime best, but perhaps his most notable jump of the campaign was his wind-aided 29-3¼ (8.92) in March. That was the farthest all-conditions jump in the world in 23 years. He missed most of July, but bounced back to win Pan-Am gold and the DL title, the latter with a mark just 3cm off his PR. He sports a 7-meet winning streak over defending champ Manyonga.
1.	Juan Miguel Echevarría	Cuba	8.68 | 28-5¾ (’18)
2.	Luvo Manyonga	South Africa	8.65 | 28-4½(A) (’18)
3.	Tajay Gayle	Jamaica	8.32 | 27-3¾ (’19)
4.	Ruswahl Samaai	South Africa	8.49 | 27-10¼(A) (’17)
5.	Miltiádis Tentóglou	Greece	8.38 | 27-6 (’19)
6.	Jianan Wang	China	8.47 | 27-9½(A) (’18)
7.	Yaoguang Zhang	China	8.29 | 27-2½(A) (’18)
8.	Thobias Montler	Sweden	8.22 | 26-11¾ (’19)
9.	Changzhou Huang	China	8.28 | 27-2 (’17)
10.	Shontaro Shiroyama	Japan	8.40 | 27-8¾ (’19)
The Americans:
Jeff Henderson 8.52 | 27-11½ (’15)
Trumaine Jefferson 8.18 | 26-10 (’19)
Steffin McCarter 8.25 | 27-¾ (’19)

TRIPLE JUMP
•Friendly rivals Taylor & Claye have about split their 50-odd lifetime meetings, but when it comes to the major international championships Taylor has the edge. He’s the 2-time time defending champion here and retains the favorite’s role even though Claye’s new PR stands as the yearly leader… Craddock, like the Big 2 a Florida alum, has also PRed this year, setting up the possibility of a Team USA medal sweep. He has beaten Pichardo—now 4 years removed from his PR—in both their ’19 meetings… With Taylor having a Wild Card, Scott gives the U.S. a strong fourth entrant.
1.	Christian Taylor	USA	18.21 | 59-9 (’15)
2.	Will Claye	USA	18.14 | 59-6¼ (’19)
3.	Omar Craddock	USA	17.68 | 58-¼ (’19)
4.	Pedro Pablo Pichardo	Portugal	18.08 | 59-4 (’15)
5.	Donald Scott	USA	17.43 | 57-2¼ (’19)
6.	Fabrice Zango Hugues	Burundi	17.58 | 57-8¼ (’19)
7.	Ruiting Wu	China	17.47 | 57-3¾ (’19)
8.	Jordan A. Díaz	Cuba	17.49 | 57-¼ (’19)
9.	Yaming Zhu	China	17.40 | 57-1 (’19)
10.	Necati Er	Turkey	17.37 | 57-0 (’19)

SHOT
•When the year began this looked like a continuation of the great Walsh/Crouser rivalry and while we expect them to punch out no end of great marks, Romani has emerged as a real threat as well, joining the 74-foot club… Narrow edge to defending champ Walsh for his overall Diamond League win, although it should be noted that he has only 6 meets over 22m this year while Olympic champ Crouser can claim 11… Bukowiecki is coming on strong with a sequence of late-season PRs and could be timing it just right… And that’s not all! Don’t forget ’17 winner Kovacs or ’17 DL champ Darrell Hill… This could rate as the event of the meet.
1.	Tom Walsh	New Zealand	22.67 | 74-4½ (’18)
2.	Ryan Crouser	USA	22.74 | 74-7¼ (’19)
3.	Darlan Romani	Brazil	22.61 | 74-2¼ (’19)
4.	Konrad Bukowiecki	Poland	22.25 | 73-0 (’19)
5.	Darrell Hill	USA	22.44 | 73-7½ (’17)
6.	Michał Haratyk	Poland	22.32 | 73-2¾ (’19)
7.	Joe Kovacs	USA	22.57 | 74-¾ (’17)
8.	Tomáš Staněk	Czech Republic	22.17 | 72-9 (’18)
9.	Bob Bertemes	Luxembourg	22.22 | 72-10¾ (’19)
10.	Jacko Gill	New Zealand	21.47 | 70-5¼ (’19)

DISCUS
•’17 silver medalist Ståhl has beaten Dacres in their last 6 meetings this year. Similarly, he has beaten defending champ Gudžius in all 4 of their meetings. And Dacres is 4–0 over Gudžius, so that sorts out their order nicely. Now if only previous meetings were a perfect predictor… On the U.S. side, national champ Mattis has beaten ’17 WC bronze medalist Finley in both their meetings this year.
1.	Daniel Ståhl	Sweden	71.86 | 235-9 (’19)
2.	Fedrick Dacres	Jamaica	68.73 | 225-6 (13)
3.	Andrius Gudžius	Lithuania	69.59 | 228-3 (’18)
4.	Lukas Weißhaidinger	Austria	68.98 | 226-4 (’18)
5.	Alin Alexandru Firfirica	Romania	67.32 | 220-10 (’19)
6.	Piotr Małachowski	Poland	71.84 | 235-8 (’13)
7.	Ehsan Hadidi	Iran	69.32 | 227-5 (’08)
8.	Ola Stunes Isene	Norway	67.78 | 222-4 (’19)
9.	Traves Smikle	Jamaica	67.72 | 222-2 (’18)
10.	Sam Mattis	USA	67.45 | 221-3 (’16)
Other Americans:
Mason Finley 68.03 | 223-2 (’17)
Brian Williams 65.76 | 215-9 (’19)

HAMMER
•There’s lots of data that can be used to sort out the Poles, since they have met no fewer than 87 (!) times since ’09, with Fajdek ahead 74–13. Nowicki tops this year’s world list, but in their 10 meetings Fajdek is ahead 7–3, so give the nod to the 3-time defending champion. Nowicki looks to upgrade his bronze-medal status of the last two WCs. Nobody else appears to be in their class.
1.	Paweł Fajdek	Poland	83.93 | 275-4 (’15)
2.	Wojciech Nowicki	Poland	81.85 | 268-6 (’18)
3.	Bence Halász	Hungary	79.57 | 261-0 (’18)
4.	Quentin Bigot	France	78.58 | 257-9 (’14)
5.	Nick Miller	Great Britain	80.26 | 263-4 (’18)
6.	Mihaíl Anastasákis	Greece	77.52 | 254-4 (’17)
7.	Denis Lukyanov	Russia	79.61 | 261-2 (’13)
8.	Javier Cienfuegos	Spain	79.38 | 260-5 (’19)
9.	Eivind Henriksen	Norway	78.25 | 256-5 (’19)
10.	Hleb Dudarau	Belarus	78.29 | 256-10 (’19)
The Americans:
Daniel Haugh 76.44 | 250-9 (’19)
Conor McCullough 78.14 | 256-4 (’19)
Rudy Winkler 76.76 | 251-10 (’16)

JAVELIN
•As always, the spear is a tough one to handicap. Defending champ Vetter beat Kirt in 2 of their 3 meetings this year, but the list-leading Estonian (297-3 | 90.61) gets the edge on marks with yearly meets 1, 2, 6, 9, 12 13, 17 & 18 in the top 20, whereas the German can only counter with 3 & 7… Fun fact: Kirt is the left-handed WR holder… Hofmann was last year’s No. 1 in the World Rankings but has been shy on wins this year… Another German star, reigning Olympic champ Thomas Röhler, hasn’t had a big throw since July… Cheng finished his Euro season with a pair of near-PR performances.
1.	Magnus Kirt	Estonia	90.61 | 297-3 (’18)
2.	Johannes Vetter	Germany	94.44 | 309-10 (’17)
3.	Andreas Hofmann	Germany	91.07 | 302-0 (’17)
4.	Chao-Tsun Cheng	Taiwan	91.36 | 299-9 (’17)
5.	Julius Yego	Kenya	92.72 | 304-2 (’15)
6.	Anderson Peters	Grenada	87.31 | 286-5 (’19)
7.	Keshorn Walcott	Trinidad	90.16 | 295-9 (’15)
8.	Kim Amb	Sweden	84.61 | 277-7 (’13)
9.	Jakub Vadlejch	Czech Republic	89.73 | 294-4 (’17)
10.	Edis Matusevičius	Lithuania	89.17 | 292-6 (’19)
The Americans:
Riley Dolezal 83.50 | 273-11 (’13)
Michael Shuey 83.21 | 273-0 (’19)

DECATHLON
•“The top 2 are solid, while bronze is a toss-up among Victor, Kaul & LePage , with vault progress for Victor an important factor,” says decathlon guru Frank Zarnowski. He calls Kaul “a star of the future.” WR holder Mayer hasn’t done a 10-eventer since that big mark last fall, but has scored hurdle and shot PRs this year… Warner’s 10.12 at Götzis was a new decathlon 100 WR.
1.	Kevin Mayer	France	9126 (’18)
2.	Damian Warner	Canada	8795 (’18)
3.	Lindon Victor	Grenada	8539 (’17)
4.	Niklas Kaul	Germany	8572 (’19)
5.	Pierce LePage	Canada	8453 (’19)
6.	Maicel Uibo	Estonia	8514 (’18)
7.	Kai Kazmirek	Germany	8580 (’16)
8.	Pieter Braun	Netherlands	8342 (’18)
9.	Devon Williams	USA	8345 (’17)
10.	Janek Õiglane	Estonia	8371 (’17)
Other Americans:
Solomon Simmons 8227 (’19)
Harrison Williams 8188 (’19)

THANKS FROM the T&FN staff to those correspondents who aided us in crafting these prognostications: Bob Bowman, Jonathan Berenbom, Sean Hartnett, Richard Hymans, Dave Johnson, Nejat Kök, Kevin Saylors, Jesse Squire & Frank Zarnowski.