fearless forecasting by T&FN staff & contributors
The 10-deep predictions for each event:
| 100 METERS | ||
Thompson has a 14-meet winning streak dating back to the beginning of ’16 and we don’t see that coming to an end in London. The speedy Jamaican has the 2 fastest times of the year, 10.71 & 10.78… Thompson and Bowie also went 1-2 in Rio last year… The American champion hasn’t raced since Sacramento, but then, she didn’t race between the OT and OG last year either… Schippers recently described her relationship with Thompson as “very bad.” |
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| 1. Elaine Thompson (Jamaica) | 10.70 (’16) | |
| 2. Tori Bowie (USA) | 10.78 (’16) | |
| 3. Dafne Schippers (Netherlands) | 10.81 (’15) | |
| 4. Marie Josée Ta Lou (Côte d’Ivoire) | 10.86 (’16) | |
| 5. Blessing Okagbare (Nigeria) | 10.79 (’13) | |
| 6. Murielle Ahouré (Côte d’Ivoire) | 10.78 (’16) | |
| 7. Michelle-Lee Ahye (Trinidad) | 10.82 (’17) | |
| 8. Kelly-Ann Baptiste (Trinidad) | 10.84 (’10) | |
| 9. Deajah Stevens (USA) | 11.00 (’17) | |
| 10. Ariana Washington (USA) | 11.01 (’16) | |
| 200 METERS | ||
Things opened up for defending champ Schippers in this one when Olympic gold medalist Elaine Thompson of Jamaica decided against doubling, choosing only the 100… Bowie, too, originally said she wouldn’t double,but latest word is that she will. The American’s PR 21.77 tops this year’s list… Miller-Uibo, new to the sub-22 club this year, will be doubling back from the 400. |
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| 1. Dafne Schippers (Netherlands) | 21.63 (’15) | |
| 2. Tori Bowie (USA) | 21.77 (’17) | |
| 3. Shaunae Miller-Uibo (Bahamas) | 21.91 (’17) | |
| 4. Marie Josée Ta Lou (Côte d’Ivoire) | 22.16 (’17) | |
| 5. Deajah Stevens (USA) | 22.09 (’17) | |
| 6. Michelle-Lee Ahye (Trinidad) | 22.25 (’16) | |
| 7. Murielle Ahouré (Côte d’Ivoire) | 22.24 (’13) | |
| 8. Kimberlyn Duncan (USA) | 22.19 (’12) | |
| 9. Ivet Lalova-Collio (Bulgaria) | 22.32 (’15) | |
| 10. Crystal Emmanuel (Canada) | 22.69 (’17) | |
| 400 METERS | ||
One of the enduring images burnt into the brain of all who saw the Rio women’s 400 is Miller-Uibo plummeting to the track in the closing steps, falling across the line just ahead of the favored Felix. We give the narrowest of edges to the defending champion American, who after some going-through-motions short dashes at USATF produced a list-leading 49.65—her No. 4 time ever—in winning the London DL… Miller-Uibo, meanwhile, hasn’t been slumbering, producing the Nos. 5-6-7 times of her career… The U.S. could well put 4 in the final, with USATF (and World Indoor) champ Hayes the best of the rest of them. |
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| 1. Allyson Felix (USA) | 49.26 (’15) | |
| 2. Shaunae Miller-Uibo (Bahamas) | 49.44 (’16) | |
| 3. Quanera Hayes (USA) | 49.72 (’17) | |
| 4. Phyllis Francis (USA) | 49.94 (’16) | |
| 5. Novlene Williams-Mills (Jamaica) | 49.63 (’06) | |
| 6. Shericka Jackson (Jamaica) | 49.83 (’16) | |
| 7. Kendall Ellis (USA) | 50.00 (’17) | |
| 8. Chrisann Gordon (Jamaica) | 50.13 (’17) | |
| 9. Stephenie Ann McPherson (Jamaica) | 49.92 (’13) | |
| 10. Lydia Jele (Botswana) | 50.32(A) (’17) | |
| 800 METERS | ||
This is projecting to look a lot like the Monaco race, where the PR-laden finish order was Semenya, Niyonsaba, Wilson (with an American Record), 1500 fave Sifan Hassan, Bishop, Sharp, Brenda Martinez, Lipsey & Wambui… The almost-invincible Semenya actually looked stressed in the stretch, giving rise to thoughts that she might be vulnerable, particularly if she’s indeed doubling back from the 1500… Unfortunately, the event is likely to be dominated by questions regarding testosterone levels… Potential game-changer: will 1500 favorite Sifan Hassan of the Netherlands bring her 1:56.81 skill here or step up to the 5000? (She’s entered in all 3; we’ve tentatively left her out here.) |
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| 1. Caster Semenya (South Africa) | 1:55.27 (’17) | |
| 2. Francine Niyonsaba (Burundi) | 1:55.47 (’17) | |
| 3. Ajee’ Wilson (USA) | 1:55.61 (’17) | |
| 4. Margaret Wambui (Kenya) | 1:56.89 (’16) | |
| 5. Melissa Bishop (Canada) | 1:57.01 (’17) | |
| 6. Lynsey Sharp (Great Britain) | 1:57.69 (’16) | |
| 7. Charlene Lipsey (USA) | 1:57.38 (’17) | |
| 8. Lovisa Lindh (Sweden) | 1:58.77 (’17) | |
| 9. Joanna Jóźwik (Poland) | 1:57.37 (’16) | |
| 10. Eunice Sum (Kenya) | 1:56.99 (’15) | |
| Other American: | ||
| Brenda Martinez |
1:57.91 (’13) | |
| 1500 METERS | ||
Tough to choose among a trio each having good bona fides. Dibaba is the fastest the event has ever seen, Kipyegon is the reigning Olympic champion and the undefeated Hassan has the year’s 3 fastest times. We’ll go with a “what have you done for us lately” protocol and say that Hassan is the one most likely to be on a roll, particularly with her second-and-a-half PR 800 in Monaco, indicating some fine finishing speed if things slow down… But speaking of slowing down, should Semenya indeed decide to double she has 50.40 speed and the slower the race gets the more it plays into her hands. |
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| 1. Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) | 3:56.05 (’15) | |
| 2. Faith Kipyegon (Kenya) | 3:56.41 (’16) | |
| 3. Genzebe Dibaba (Ethiopia) | 3:50.07 (’15) | |
| 4. Laura Muir (Great Britain) | 3:55.22 (’16) | |
| 5. Jenny Simpson (USA) | 3:57.22 (’14) | |
| 6. Caster Semenya (South Africa) | 4:01.99 (’16) | |
| 7. Konstanze Klosterhalfen (Germany) | 3:59.30 (’17) | |
| 8. Meraf Bahta (Sweden) | 4:00.59 (’17) | |
| 9. Angelika Cichocka (Poland) | 4:01.61 (’17) | |
| 10. Winny Chebet (Kenya) | 3:59.16 (’17) | |
| Other Americans: | ||
| Kate Grace | 4:03.59 (’17) | |
| Sara Vaughn | 4:06.64 (’17) | |
| STEEPLE | ||
Reigning Olympic champ Jebet has won only 2 of 5 races this year and is just 2-2 against Chespol, the newest member of the sub-9:00 club, but the Bahraini gets bonus points for being the WR holder and having ducked under 9:00 thrice… Chespol, still only 18, is also 2-2 on the year against Chepkoech, but just 0-3 against Rio silver medalist Jepkemoi, but there’s little choose among the 3 Kenyans, with less than 2 seconds separating their PRs… American Record holder Coburn bronzed in Rio and in big races frequently tops people with better PRs. |
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| 1. Ruth Jebet (Bahrain) | 8:52.78 (’16) | |
| 2. Hyvin Jepkemoi (Kenya) | 9:00.01 (’16) | |
| 3. Beatrice Chepkoech (Kenya) | 9:00.70 (’17) | |
| 4. Celphine Chespol (Kenya) | 8:58.78 (’17) | |
| 5. Emma Coburn (USA) | 9:07.63 (’16) | |
| 6. Sofia Assefa (Ethiopia) | 9:07.06 (’17) | |
| 7. Habiba Ghribi (Tunisia) | 9:05.36 (’15) | |
| 8. Etenesh Diro (Ethiopia) | 9:13.25 (’17) | |
| 9. Gesa-Felicitas Krause (Germany) | 9:15.70 (’17) | |
| 10. Purity Kirui (Kenya) | 9:17.74 (’15) | |
| Other Americans: | ||
| Courtney Frerichs | 9:19.09 (’17) | |
| Colleen Quigley | 9:20.00 (’16) | |
| 5000 METERS | ||
The stadium will be going berserk for Muir—doubling back from the 1500—but she’ll find it tough going to break up the Kenyan/Ethiopian nexus, which includes former Kenyan Can and former Ethiopian Hassan… Dibaba is also doubling back from the 1500 and she slots right behind Olympic silver medalist Obiri, who has this year’s 2 fastest times… Ayana scared the WR last year, but doubled back from her Olympic 10K win with “only” a bronze. She’ll be essaying that same tough double again… American hopeful Rowbury won’t be doubling back from the 1500, which she had hoped to be able to try but was denied in her attempts to have USATF create a suitable timetable at the Nationals. |
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| 1. Hellen Obiri (Kenya) | 14:18.37 (’17) | |
| 2. Genzebe Dibaba (Ethiopia) | 14:18.86 (’15) | |
| 3. Almaz Ayana (Ethiopia) | 14:12.59 (’16) | |
| 4. Senbere Teferi (Ethiopia) | 14:29.82 (’16) | |
| 5. Yasemin Can (Turkey) | 14:36.82 (’16) | |
| 6. Sifan Hassan (Holland) | 14:41.24 (’17) | |
| 7. Laura Muir (Great Britain) | 14:49.12 (’17) | |
| 8. Shannon Rowbury (USA) | 14:38.92 (’16) | |
| 9. Letesenbet Gidey (Ethiopia) | 14:33.32 (’17) | |
| 10. Margaret Kipkemboi (Kenya) | 14:43.89 (’17) | |
| Other Americans: | ||
| Shelby Houlihan | 15:06.14 (’16) | |
| Molly Huddle | 14:42.64 (’14) | |
| 10,000 METERS | ||
WR holder Ayana would seem the logical fave, except that she incurred an unspecified injury in April and subsequently withdrew from 2 meets, leaving her with zero competitions on the year. Still, the level of talent she showed in winning the Rio gold last year keeps her close to the top… Dibaba hasn’t had a track race all year, and for a while looked like she might go for the marathon after running 2:17:56 for 2nd in London. Instead, she’ll be back on the track, looking for her fourth WC 10K gold (to go with a pair she has from the OG)… Ethiopia would have had a formidable trio at the top, but yearly list leader Gelete Burka (30:40.87) wasn’t named to the team for unknown reasons… Kenya counters with Nawowuna (4th in Rio) and Tirop (the ’15 World XC champ, who looked very good in the Rome 5K in June)… AR holder Huddle was 6th in Rio and 4th at the ’15 Worlds. |
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| 1. Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) | 29:42.56 (’16) | |
| 2. Almaz Ayana (Ethiopia) | 29:17.45 (’16) | |
| 3. Alice Nawowuna (Kenya) | 29:53.51 (’16) | |
| 4. Agnes Tirop (Kenya) | 31:56.0(A) (’17) | |
| 5. Molly Huddle (USA) | 30:13.17 (’16) | |
| 6. Irene Cheptai (Kenya) | 31:15.38 (’16) | |
| 7. Yasemin Can (Turkey) | 30:26.41 (’16) | |
| 8. Emily Infeld (USA) | 31:22.67 (’17) | |
| 9. Dera Dida (Ethiopia) | 30:56.48 (’17) | |
| 10. Eloise Wellings (Australia) | 31:14.94 (’16) | |
| Other American: | ||
| Emily Sisson | 31:25.64 (’17) | |
| 100 HURDLES | ||
Team USA swept the Rio medals, and while we’re not flat-out predicting that at this point, it remains a real possibility, particularly with 4 entrants… The best of them is WR holder Harrison, who despite her OT disaster last year ended up ranked No. 1 in the world. This year she’s undefeated and tops the list at 12.28… After a couple of injury-shortened seasons, Pearson is bouncing back towards the form that made her world champ in ’11 and Oly gold medalist the next year… 2-time World Indoor winner Ali currently looks like the No. 2 American… Williams kinda came out of nowhere to win the ’15 title, then didn’t make the Rio team, but with a PR this year looks ready to be a big factor again. |
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| 1. Kendra Harrison (USA) | 12.20 (’16) | |
| 2. Sally Pearson (Australia) | 12.28 (’11) | |
| 3. Nia Ali (USA) | 12.48 (’13) | |
| 4. Danielle Williams (Jamaica) | 12.56 (’17) | |
| 5. Christina Manning (USA) | 12.58 (’17) | |
| 6. Pamela Dutkiewicz (Germany) | 12.61 (’17) | |
| 7. Jasmine Camacho-Quinn (Puerto Rico) | 12.58 (’17) | |
| 8. Tobi Amusan (Nigeria) | 12.57 (’17) | |
| 9. Dawn Harper Nelson (USA) | 12.37 (’12) | |
| 10. Rushelle Burton (Jamaica) | 12.65 (’17) | |
| 400 HURDLES | ||
A hamstring tweak made Olympic champion Muhammad look very mortal in her 2 post-Sacto races, but given the impressive PR—moving her to No. ever—she recorded in winning the U.S. title we’ll give her a narrow edge over Hejnová… The Czech won the WC golds in ’13 & ’15, but was troubled by an Achilles last year and ended up 4th in Rio. With a seasonal best of 54.22 she’s got a ways to go to get back her old self… Little beat Carter at USATF, but the latter looked much better in subsequent Euro meets. |
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| 1. Dalilah Muhammad (USA) | 52.64 (’17) | |
| 2. Zuzana Hejnová (Czech Republic) | 52.83 (’13) | |
| 3. Kori Carter (USA) | 52.95 (’17) | |
| 4. Shamier Little (USA) | 52.75 (’17) | |
| 5. Sara Slott Petersen (Denmark) | 53.55 (’16) | |
| 6. Eilidh Doyle (Great Britain) | 54.09 (’16) | |
| 7. Cassandra Tate (USA) | 54.01 (’15) | |
| 8. Léa Sprunger (Switzerland) | 54.29 (’17) | |
| 9. Kemi Adekoya (Bahrain) | 54.12 (’15) | |
| 10. Wenda Nel (South Africa) | 54.37 (’15) | |
| MARATHON | ||
As with the men, the field will be devoid of many/most of the year’s top performers. List leader Mary Keitany of Kenya is passing on the meet, and No. 2 performer Tirunesh Dibaba of Ethiopia will here run the 10K instead. And a doping charge has sidelined Olympic champ Jemima Sumgong… Rio silver medalist Jepkirui (sometimes called Kirwa) also won the ’15 WC bronze and gets a narrow edge over Mare Dibaba, who won the ’15 gold and took bronze last year… Kiplagat won the WC golds in ’11 & ’13, but at 37 may not have a lot of miles left in her legs. |
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| 1. Eunice Jepkirui (Bahrain) | 2:21:17 (’17) | |
| 2. Mare Dibaba (Ethiopia) | 2:19:52 (’15) | |
| 3. Edna Kiplagat (Kenya) | 2:19:50 (’12) | |
| 4. Birhane Dibaba (Ethiopia) | 2:21:19 (’17) | |
| 5. Helah Kiprop (Kenya) | 2:21:27 (’16) | |
| 6. Purity Rionoripo (Kenya) | 2:20:55 (’17) | |
| 7. Yuka Ando (Japan) | 2:21:36 (’17) | |
| 8. Shure Demise (Ethiopia) | 2:20:59 (’15) | |
| 9. Aselefech Mergia (Ethiopia) | 2:19:31 (’12) | |
| 10. Rose Chelimo (Bahrain) | 2:22:51 (’17) | |
| The Americans: | ||
| Serena Burla | 2:26:53 (’17) | |
| Amy Cragg | 2:28:20 (’16) | |
| Lindsay Flanagan | 2:29:28 (’16) | |
| 20K WALK | ||
Russia has the year’s 3 fastest performers, but none were cleared for competition here. Also missing is Olympic gold medalist Hong Liu, who hasn’t competed all year… González, a former boxer, was the Rio silver winner and she assumes the favorite’s role after a pair of fast wins, although she is a couple of minutes down to the Chinese trio going in… The best of the Chinese is last year’s bronze medalist, Lu, who has one very fast race this year but also had a stinker in her final outing… Best of the Europeans is European Cup winner Palmisano, 4th in Rio. |
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| 1. Maria Guadalupe González (Mexico) | 1:26:17 (’16) | |
| 2. Xiuzhi Lu (China) | 1:25:12 (’15) | |
| 3. Jiayu Yang (China) | 1:26:35 (’12) | |
| 4. Na Wang (China) | 1:26:29 (’17) | |
| 5. Antonella Palmisano (Italy) | 1:27:51 (’14) | |
| 6. Erica de Sena (Brazil) | 1:27:18 (’16) | |
| 7. Kimberly García (Peru) | 1:29:15 (’17) | |
| 8. Ana Cabecinha (Portugal) | 1:27:46 (’08) | |
| 9. Regan Lamble (Australia) | 1:29:33 (’16) | |
| 10. Ainhoa Pinedo (Spain) | 1:29:50 (’17) | |
| The Americans: | ||
| Miranda Melville | 1:31:42 (’16) | |
| Maria Michta-Coffey | 1:30:49 (’16) | |
| 50K WALK | ||
The IAAF sprung this event on the public (and the athletes?) at the last minute and we don’t feel particularly competent in trying to handicap it, especially since we don’t know which of the entrants, if any, have been pointing towards this and how many have been targeting the 20K, which is a totally different animal… Inês Henriques of Portugal walked the event’s fastest time ever, 4:08:26, back in January.  |
| 4 x 100 RELAY | ||
As on the men’s side, as of this writing we don’t know exactly who will be running for Team USA. An Uncle Sam foursome of Tianna Bartoletta, Allyson Felix, English Gardner & Tori Bowie won Rio gold. All but Gardner (injured in the Monaco DL 4×1) are part of the pool, so perhaps only a new third leg needs to be plugged in. Oregon teammates Deajah Stevens and Ariana Washington finished 2-3 behind Bowie at the USATF Championships, so will obviously get strong consideration… Jamaica may well have the fastest anchor in Elaine Thompson, but appears to have health problems elsewhere, veterans Veronica Campbell-Brown and Kerron Stewart both appearing on injury lists and all-time great Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce out on maternity leave… Trinidad is projected to have both Michelle-Lee Ahye and Kelly-Ann Baptiste in the 100 final, so isn’t lacking in basic horsepower. |
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| 1. United States | 41.01 (’16) | |
| 2. Jamaica | 41.36 (’16) | |
| 3. Trinidad | 42.12 (’16) | |
| 4. Great Britain | 41.77 (’16) | |
| 5. Germany | 42.00 (’16) | |
| 6. Netherlands | 42.04 (’16) | |
| 7. France | 42.84 (’16) | |
| 8. Switzerland | 42.53 (’17) | |
| 9. Brazil | 42.59 (’16) | |
| 10. China | 42.65 (’16) | |
| 4 x 400 RELAY | ||
With the possibility of being able to field a team with 4 sub-50 performers—Allyson Felix, Quanera Hayes, Phyllis Francis & Natasha Hastings—the U.S. remains the favorite, but defending champ Jamaica will have something to say about that… Where does uber-vet Felix run? For years she broke races open for the U.S. on the second leg, but she anchored on the Rio gold squad… The battle for bronze could be wide open, with the crowd roaring for the hometown team. |
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| 1. United States | 3:19.05 (’16) | |
| 2. Jamaica | 3:20.33 (’16) | |
| 3. Great Britain | 3:24.80 (’16) | |
| 4. France | 3:25.95 (’16) | |
| 5. Italy | 3:25.16 (’16) | |
| 6. Canada | 3:24.94 (’16) | |
| 7. Poland | 3:25.33 (’16) | |
| 8. Australia | 3:25.70 (’16) | |
| 9. Germany | 3:26.02 (’16) | |
| 10. Botswana | 3:30.13 (’17) | |
| HIGH JUMP | ||
Lasitskene really dominates the yearly list. She has 13 meets over the 2-meter (6‑6¾) barrier. Nobody else has done it outdoors and while Palšytė did it twice indoors, she injured herself in her first outdoor meet and only gets a token position here. Same for 38-year-old Olympic champ Beitia, who jumped very well indoors, but outdoors has been hampered by a litany of problems: knee, shoulder & hip… In theory, heptathlon stars Nafi Thiam and Katarina Johnson-Thompson—both 6-6/1.98 performers—could double back from the heptathlon, but Thiam’s coach has ruled that out for the Belgian. Former indoor world champ Lićwinko hasn’t broken 2.00 since ’15 and has never done it outdoors. But she has jumped 1.95 (6-4¾) or better in 8 of her 12 meets this year… Still only 19, Cunningham is searching for the first 2-meter jump of her career (or better, 2.01/6-7 to tie the World Junior Record). She has jumped 1.99 (6‑6¼) the last two years and is poised for a big breakthrough. |
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| 1. Mariya Lasitskene (Russia) | 2.06 | 6-9 (’17) | |
| 2. Kamila Lićwinko (Poland) | 2.02 | 6-7½ (’15) | |
| 3. Vashti Cunningham (USA) | 1.99 | 6-6¼ (’17) | |
| 4. Yuliya Levchenko (Ukraine) | 1.96 | 6-5¼ (’17) | |
| 5. Marie-Laurence Jungfleisch (Germany) | 2.00 | 6-6¾ (’16) | |
| 6. Oksana Okuneva (Ukraine) | 1.98 | 6-6 (’14) | |
| 7. Inika McPherson (USA) | 1.96 | 6-5¼ (’14) | |
| 8. Morgan Lake (Great Britain) | 1.96 | 6-5¼ (’17) | |
| 9. Airinė Palšytė (Lithuania) | 2.01 | 6-7 (’17) | |
| 10. Ruth Beitia (Spain) | 2.02 | 6-7½ (’07) | |
| Other American: | ||
| Liz Patterson | 1.95 | 6-4¾ (’09) | |
| POLE VAULT | ||
Stefanídi won Rio’s gold, but ended up No. 2 in our World Rankings last year after Morris demonstrated season-long superiority. That equation has been reversed this year. The American took their first meeting, but the Greek has since rolled off 4 wins in a row. Stefanídi, a Stanford grad, also owns the two highest jumps of the year… Suhr remains dangerous at 35, still capable of banging out some big bars. |
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| 1. Katerína Stefanídi (Greece) | 4.90 | 16-¾ (’16) | |
| 2. Sandi Morris (USA) | 5.00 | 16-4¾ (’16) | |
| 3. Jenn Suhr (USA) | 5.03 | 16-6 (’16) | |
| 4. Yarisley Silva (Cuba) | 4.91 | 16-1¼ (’15) | |
| 5. Eliza McCartney (New Zealand) | 4.82 | 15-9¾ (’17) | |
| 6. Anzhelika Sidorova (Russia) | 4.85 | 15-11 (’16) | |
| 7. Olga Mullina (Russia) | 4.67 | 15-3¾ (’17) | |
| 8. Nicole Büchler (Switzerland) | 4.80 | 15-9 (’16) | |
| 9. Michaela Meijer (Sweden) | 4.71 | 15-5½ (’17) | |
| 10. Holly Bradshaw (Great Britain) | 4.87 | 15-11¾ (’12) | |
| Other American: | ||
| Emily Grove | 4.60 | 15-1 (’17) | |
| LONG JUMP | ||
Bartoletta, Reese & Španović waged a fabulous 3-way battle in Brazil last year, finishing in that order, but it may be more of a 2-way battle this year, since the list-leading Serbian hurt her foot on the board in mid-July… The two Americans are very evenly matched this year, splitting their two meetings, but Bartoletta won USATF and followed up with a nice DL win in the London pit, while Reese was unimpressive in her two outings. |
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| 1. Tianna Bartoletta (USA) | 7.17 | 23-6½ (’16) | |
| 2. Brittney Reese (USA) | 7.31 | 24-0 (’16) | |
| 3. Ivana Španović (Serbia) | 7.24 | 23-9¼ (’17) | |
| 4. Claudia Salman-Rath (Germany) | 6.94 | 22-9¼ (’17) | |
| 5. Lorraine Ugen (Great Britain) | 6.97 | 22-10½ (’17) | |
| 6. Christabel Nettey (Canada) | 6.99 | 22-11½ (’15) | |
| 7. Darya Klishina (Russia) | 7.05 | 23-1¾ (’11) | |
| 8. Sha’Keela Saunders (USA) | 6.90 | 22-7¾ (’17) | |
| 9. Shara Proctor (Great Britain) | 7.07 | 23-2½ (’15) | |
| 10. Brooke Stratton (Australia) | 7.05 | 23-1¾ (’16) | |
| Other American: | ||
| Quanesha Burks | 6.93 | 22-9(A) (’15) | |
| TRIPLE JUMP | ||
After last year’s results there were hopes that Rio 4th-placer Keturah Orji might become the first U.S. World Champs medalist in this event, but unfortunately she came up injured post-Sacto… The two South Americans are closely matched in their battle for the top spot. They dominate the yearly list, with the Venezuelan (left in photo) having a 10cm edge there, and in their two ’17 meetings Rojas won by 6cm, then Ibargüen won by 3. Lifetime, The Colombian (center in photo) has an 8-1 edge, so we’ll stick with her experience as the decider… Rio bronze medalist Rypakova (right in photo) looks like a repeat performer in that position. |
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| 1. Caterine Ibargüen (Colombia) | 15.31 | 50-2¾ (’14) | |
| 2. Yulimar Rojas (Venezuela) | 15.02 | 49-3¼ (’16) | |
| 3. Olga Rypakova (Kazakhstan) | 15.25 | 50-½ (’10) | |
| 4. Nubia Soares (Brazil) | 14.56 | 47-9½ (’17) | |
| 5. Paraskeví Papahrístou (Greece) | 14.73 | 48-4¼ (’16) | |
| 6. Kristin Gierisch (Germany) | 14.56 | 47-5½ (’15) | |
| 7. Patricia Mamona (Portugal) | 14.65 | 48-1 (’16) | |
| 8. Kim Williams (Jamaica) | 14.62 | 48-0 (’13) | |
| 9. Hanna Minenko (Israel) | 14.78 | 48-6¼ (’15) | |
| 10. Liadagmis Povea (Cuba) | 14.56 | 47-9½ (’16) | |
| The American: | ||
| Tori Franklin |
13.86 | 45-5¾(A) (’17) | |
| SHOT | ||
Carter hasn’t been reaching distances anything like those that earned her Olympic gold and No. 1 in the World Rankings, but we keep remembering what incredible fighting spirit she showed in a sequence of last-round wins in ’16, so we’ll say the top spot is hers to lose… The American’s biggest rival, Kiwi Valerie Adams, is out this year on maternity leave… Márton has been the most consistent this year… Gong produced a world-leading throw of 65-11¾ (20.11) the week before the WC… Saunders won the U.S. title with a lifetime best. |
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| 1. Michelle Carter (USA) | 20.63 | 67-8¼ (’16) | |
| 2. Anita Márton (Hungary) | 19.87 | 65-2¼ (’16) | |
| 3. Lijiao Gong (China) | 20.43 | 67-½ (’16) | |
| 4. Raven Saunders (USA) | 19.76 | 64-10 (’17) | |
| 5. Danniel Thomas (Jamaica) | 19.15 | 62-10 (’17) | |
| 6. Dani Bunch (USA) | 19.64 | 64-5¼ (’17) | |
| 7. Aliona Dubitskaya (Belarus) | 19.03 | 62-5¼ (’14) | |
| 8. Yaniuvis López (Cuba) | 18.92 | 62-1 (’17) | |
| 9. Sara Gambetta (Germany) | 18.46 | 60-6¾ (’17) | |
| 10. Dimitriana Surdu (Mol) | 18.83 | 61-9½ (’17) | |
| DISCUS | ||
As the year began we’d have called Olympic champ Perković one of the biggest locks going, but Pérez, the 4th-placer two years ago, has muddled the picture, beating the Croatian great in their last two meetings, the latter with her PR. On the yearly list Perković has meets Nos. 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9 & 10, Pérez Nos. 4, 6 & 8… Reigning champ Caballero also picked up Olympic bronze last year. |
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| 1. Sandra Perković (Croatia) | 71.08 | 233-2 (’14) | |
| 2. Yaimé Pérez (Cuba) | 69.19 | 227-0 (’17) | |
| 3. Denia Caballero (Cuba) | 70.65 | 231-10 (’15) | |
| 4. Dani Stevens (Australia) | 67.99 | 223-1 (’14) | |
| 5. Nadine Müller (Germany) | 68.89 | 226-0 (’12) | |
| 6. Xinyue Su (China) | 65.59 | 215-2 (’16) | |
| 7. Mélina Robert-Michon (France) | 66.73 | 217-11 (’16) | |
| 8. Gia Lewis-Smallwood (USA) | 69.17 | 226-11 (’14) | |
| 9. Bin Feng (China) | 65.14 | 213-8 (’16) | |
| 10. Anna Rüh (Germany) | 66.14 | 217-0 (’15) | |
| Other Americans: | ||
| Valarie Allman |
64.69 | 212-3 (’17) | |
| Whitney Ashley |
64.80 | 212-7 (’15) | |
| HAMMER | ||
Włodarczyk is probably the lock of all locks in the meet. Her dominance of the yearly (top 24 marks) and all-time (top 29 marks) lists is amazing. And the weekend before London cranks up she missed her WR by just 11cm… Even though they’ve not—strangely enough—gone head-to-head this year, Zhang and Wang are far from strangers, with the former having a monstrous 48–8 edge in their 56 lifetime meetings. Still Wang is far better on the tape measure this year so far, so their positions could easily reverse… Berry is well positioned for a shot at the first U.S. podium spot ever. |
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| 1. Anita Włodarczyk (Poland) | 82.98 | 272-3 (’16) | |
| 2. Wenxiu Zhang (China) | 77.33 | 252-7 (’14) | |
| 3. Zheng Wang (China) | 77.68 | 254-10 (’14) | |
| 4. Gwen Berry (USA) | 76.77 | 251-10 (’17) | |
| 5. Hanna Skydan (Azerbaijan) | 75.29 | 247-0 (’17) | |
| 6. Sophie Hitchon (Great Britain) | 74.54 | 244-7 (’16) | |
| 7. Malwina Kopron (Poland) | 73.98 | 242-8 (’17) | |
| 8. DeAnna Price (USA) | 74.40 | 245-9 (’17) | |
| 9. Hanna Malyshik (Belarus) | 74.94 | 245-10 (’17) | |
| 10. Maggie Ewen (USA) | 74.56 | 244-7 (’17) | |
| JAVELIN | ||
Kolak was one of the biggest surprises—in all events—in Rio last year, coming from not even on the formchart to claiming the gold. The young Croatian beat Špotáková the first two times they met this year, but the WR holder bounced back to win in their final pre-WC meeting. Narrow edge to the Czech vet… Defending champ Katharina Molitor of Germany hasn’t shown enough to make the top 10… Olympic silver medalist Sunette Viljoen of South Africa had to withdraw with injury. |
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| 1. Barbora Špotáková (Czech Republic) | 72.28 | 237-2 (’08) | |
| 2. Sara Kolak (Croatia) | 68.43 | 224-6 (’17) | |
| 3. Tatsiana Khaladovich (Belarus) | 66.34 | 217-8 (’16) | |
| 4. Shiying Liu (China) | 66.47 | 218-1 (’17) | |
| 5. Martina Ratej (Slovenia) | 67.16 | 220-4 (’10) | |
| 6. Liz Gleadle (Canada) | 64.83 | 212-8 (’15) | |
| 7. Kelsey-Lee Roberts (Australia) | 64.38 | 211-3 (’17) | |
| 8. Kathryn Mitchell (Australia) | 66.12 | 216-11 (’17) | |
| 9. Madara Palameika (Latvia) | 66.18 | 217-1 (’16) | |
| 10. Eda Tuğsuz (Turkey) | 67.21 | 220-6 (’17) | |
| The Americans: | ||
| Ariana Ince |
61.38 | 201-4 (’17) | |
| Kara Winger |
66.67 | 218-8 (’10) | |
| HEPTATHLON | ||
Lifetime bests by the handful: Thiam’s 5-PR performance in Rio gave her surprise gold last year; the Belgian star had another 5-PR day at Götzis at the end of May and joined the hyper-elite 7000-point club… Schäfer edged Ikauniece-Admidiņa in Götzis, but the Latvian has the edge in their lifetime series… Johnson-Thompson will certainly benefit from homefield advantage, but she’s probably going to have to pick up a couple of hundred points to make it onto the podium… The highlight event of the 7 disciplines may well be the high jump, with Thiam and KJT perhaps attacking the World Heptathlon Record they share at 6-6 (1.98)… Note that the top 6 have all claimed lifetime high scores this year. |
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| 1. Nafi Thiam (Belgium) | 7013 (’17) | |
| 2. Laura Ikauniece-Admidiņa (Latvia) | 6815 (’17) | |
| 3. Carolin Schäfer (Germany) | 6836 (’17) | |
| 4. Katarina Johnson-Thompson (Great Britain) | 6691 (’17) | |
| 5. Claudia Salman-Rath (Germany) | 6580 (’17) | |
| 6. Erica Bougard (USA) | 6557 (’17) | |
| 7. Anouk Vetter (Holland) | 6626 (’16) | |
| 8. Kendell Williams (USA) | 6564 (’17) | |
| 9. Yorgelis Rodríguez (Cuba) | 6481 (’16) | |
| 10. Sharon Day-Monroe (USA) | 6550 (’13) | |
| Other American: | ||
| Erica Bougard |
6557 (’17) | |
August 2, 2017