PREDICTING THE TOP individuals this far out from the Big Dance is always a big challenge (or more precisely, an impossibility). In a sport where many of the best don’t race early, and where training progress is difficult to discern, we are often left with the only real data we have — how a runner performed last fall, and whether the track season showed any continuation of that trajectory.
Take that imperfect process, and factor in the possibility of a few mysterious foreign recruits jumping into the picture, as well as the grinding work of American runners who have not made the radar yet but are ready for a breakthrough, and we’re left with a list you’d be better off not betting money on.
However, this is a collection of serious talent that should be watched carefully this fall, especially as the leaves fall in the north and the cold wind starts to blow.
1. Graham Blanks (Harvard)
Last year, Blanks won with a convincing kick over New Mexico’s Habtom Samuel, and he honed that finish even further with an impressive season on the track. He opened up with a 13:03.78 PR right after his harrier win, then was sidelined with a stress fracture until April. He salvaged a 5th in the NCAA 5000 and then ran an outdoor best 13:12.61 for 4th at the Trials. Named to the Olympic team, he placed 9th in the Paris final.
2. Habtom Samuel (New Mexico)
The runner-up last season, the Lobo soph from Eritrea stunned with a 26:53.84 for 10,000 in March, then went on to win the NCAA title. Unafraid to lead when called for, he finished up that race with a blazing kick after bouncing back from a fall. He rounded out his résumé with PRs of 7:40.63 and 13:13.34, winning All-America honors at both distances indoors (and a 6th at 5000 outdoors).
3. Denis Kipngetich (Oklahoma State)
Fourth last year, the Kenyan soph had a solid track campaign, with PRs of 7:44.78, 13:26.34 and 28:10.25, the last mark coming in his 3rd-place finish at Nationals. Like Samuel, he hasn’t raced since then, focusing on training to likely come back stronger than ever. As the leader of the heavily-favored Cowboy squad, he will be focused as well.
4. Evans Kurui (Washington State)
The Cougar newcomer is our wild card. Little is known about the Kenyan, but he made himself a contender with his first race on Washington State’s home course. Running solo for the most part, he covered the 8K circuit in 22:47, slicing 20 seconds off the course record set by Oregon legend Edward Cheserek in winning the ’15 Pac-12 title.
5. Patrick Kiprop (Arkansas)
Last year, Kiprop placed 7th after winning the South Central region. On the track, he won the SEC 5000 in an outdoor PR 13:32.94, then finished 8th in the NCAA 10,000, after being one of the leaders before the pileup with 900 to go. Now a senior, he is looking for a happier ending to his collegiate harrier career.
6. Brian Musau (Oklahoma State)
An 8th-place last year as a frosh marked a good start for the Cowboy Kenyan. He gave a glimpse of his speed on the track, with a 3:55.49 mile indoors and a 7:38.04. He finished 6th in the NCAA Indoor 3000 after leading off the winning distance medley. Outdoors, he ran a PR 13:13.29 before placing 4th in the NCAA 5000.
7. Parker Wolfe (North Carolina)
Wolfe placed 9th last year. Now a senior, he has proven himself to be a skilled tactician on the track, and he has the speed to be dangerous if he’s close. He won a tactical NCAA 5000 by closing in 54.86, then PRed at 13:10.75 to place 3rd at the Trials.
8. David Mullarkey (Northern Arizona)
The transfer from Florida State was only 40th last year. On the track he hit bests of 7:42.89 and 13:28.23. Now the British 24-year-old is training at altitude for the first time and looks to make a performance jump, as so many have done in the training mecca of Flagstaff.
9. Dennis Kipruto (Alabama)
A mid-year recruit, the Kenyan frosh missed last year’s harrier campaign and had a lackluster first season on the track. But he brought to Tuscaloosa some impressive PRs that make him very dangerous, a 27:50.45 for 10,000 as well as a 60:17 half marathon.
10. Cole Sprout (Stanford)
The experienced senior has already run in four NCAA cross country races, but he gets to do a fifth this fall. With PRs of 13:24.38 and 27:42.42 from the ’22 campaign, he decided to redshirt the ’24 track season to build fitness for a strong final Cardinal year.
Others To Watch:
Bernard Cheruiyot (Tulane), Ernest Cheruiyot (Texas Tech), Vincent Chirchir (New Mexico), Casey Clinger (BYU), Solomon Kipchoge (Texas Tech), Victor Kiprop (Alabama), Collins Kiprotich (New Mexico), Dismus Lokira (Alabama), Fouad Messaoudi (Oklahoma State). ◻︎
