CONSENSUS IS NOT an iron-clad promise. Our pick to come out on top at the LaVern Gibson course in Terre Haute, Indiana, on November 21 is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have also racked up 11 first-place votes in the latest USTFCCCA coaches poll. But there is still a lot of time between now and then for breakthroughs and injuries, and we expect to see this order shuffling just as it did last year, when we originally picked Iowa State, the eventual 3rd-placer.
1. Oklahoma State
Dave Smith’s Cowboys are looking to win their third title in 4 years, bolstered by the return of their top 3 finishers from last year’s winning squad: Brian Musau (4th), Denis Kipngetich (6th) and Adisu Guadie (12th). Who will be the other scorers for the Big 12 champs? Laban Kipkemboi was just 182nd last year but has run 3:53 for the mile and an 8:27 steeple. Others prospects include Brits Jacob Deacon (13:26/28:22) or Henry Dover (13:36), as well as any of their sub-4:00 milers: Oliver Patton, Alex Riley, or even sub-4:00 Aussie recruit Charles Barrett.
2. New Mexico
The Lobos, coached by Darren Gauson in his now-fourth year, lost by 25 points last year despite placing 1-8-13-18. While the ultimate low-stick is gone with Habtom Samuel deciding to turn pro, Collins Kiprotich (8th), Evans Kiplagat (13th), Vincent Chirchir (20th) now lead the team. Soph Pasanjo Kitonga showed his fitness with a road 28:27 in August. Both Joshua Abraham (3:57) and Matthew Endrödy (3:55/7:53) could contribute. Then add frosh Gerald Kipkemboi, who has run 3:41 and 13:54 at altitude, along with transfers Lukas Ehrle (28:40) and Drew Rogers (28:14). Suddenly New Mexico is looking like a potent challenger for the crown.
3. Iowa State
Last year Jeremy Sudbury guided the Cyclones to 3rd at Nationals after finishing 2nd to Oklahoma State at the Big 12. He boasts a solid returning cast including Robin Kewmoi Bera (15th), Meshack Kimutai (22nd), Rodgers Kiplimo (23rd) and Joash Ruto (36th). On the track, Kwemoi Bera ran 13:15/28:15. Kimutai hit 13:26/28:02, plus ran a summer half-marathon in 1:04. Kiplimo hit 13:18 while Ruto steepled 8:20. Two key recruits could make a big difference: transfer Justine Kipkoech with 3:32/28:23 credentials, and incoming frosh Kennedy Kisholio with his 1:04 for the half-marathon.
4. Alabama
Only 6th last year after winning the SEC and the South Region, Crimson Tide stock is rising. Stars Dismus Lokira (11th) and Dennis Kipruto (26th) have been joined by big wheels Duncan Gituku (13:03/28:14) and Rodgers Plimo (1:02 half). Nelson Pariken (54th) continues to improve. He clocked 13:34 last spring. Ezekiel Pitireng (91st) ran the steeple in 8:29, and mid-year transfer Bismack Kipchirchir covered it in 8:26. Already Dan Waters’ team is off to a solid start, running its top guns in the Southern Showcase to win with a perfect 15 points.
5. Oregon
Jerry Schumacher’s Ducks placed 5th last fall after winning the Big 10. Five return, led by Aiden Smith (25th), who missed track with injury. NCAA 1500 champ Simeon Birnbaum (33rd) broke the CR for 1500 with his 3:31.69 and improved his 5000 to 13:19. Benjamin Balasz (153rd) flourished in the steeple, hitting a PR 8:17.67. Joining the effort will be Evan Bishop (13:37/27:57) and Tomas Palfrey (3:53/7:39). Then there are the new guys: transfers Evan Jenkins (13:22/28:03), Connor McCormick (3:35) and Canadian recruit Xavier Perras-Phaneuf (13:33).
6. Colorado
Third-year coach Sean Carlson is making his mark. Tenth last year after a 3rd in the Big 12, the Buffs return 6 of those runners. Last year’s leader, Dominic Serem (58th) missed track. Jake Liebert (68th) ran 28:07 at Stanford before falling to injury. Isaiah Givens (88th) moved up to 5000 with a 13:27. Ireland’s Dean Casey (92nd) clocked a 28:17. Also, TJ Hansen, an NXN runner-up as a prep, missed outdoors and may be ready for the longer collegiate distance. Three Kenyan recruits should help: Peter Bii, Meshack Kipruto (winner of their opening 8K) and Stephen Ndungu (13:58 at altitude).
7. BYU
With 27 years of seniority, Ed Eyestone is the senior coach of this group. All that experience makes the Cougars a perennially dangerous program. Last year they finished 11th after winning the year before. Among the returnees: Tayvon Kitchen (32nd) improved to 13:17 on the track. Noah Jenkins (43rd) clocked a 28:53, James Corrigan (94th) finished 7th in the USATF steeple at 8:21. Junior Isaac Hedengren improved to 13:28 and Dalton Morrison ran 28:45. The squad impressed at McNichols, placing 5 in the top 20 to take the win, led by Kitchen’s 3rd.
8. Syracuse
A surprising 4th last year, coach Brien Bell’s Orange squad returns just 3, led by Benne Anderson (63rd), who last year PRed in 3:36.15 in making the NCAA 1500 final. Ben Gabelman (100th) ran 13:38 at BU, and Louis Small (161st) hit 28:51 in the early season. The ACC runners-up have several others who may step up including Connor Ackley, who ran 28:34 at Stanford, and Drew Zundell, who clocked 13:44. Columbia transfer Edward Blaha brings a 13:43 PR, while Abe Eckman, from Indiana, has run 28:47.
9. Washington State
Some low sticks helped the Cougars to 17th last year. A more evenly bunched squad will do better, and that’s what coach Wayne Phipps is hoping. Up front he has last year’s 3rd-placer in Solomon Kipchoge, plus Evans Kurui (17th), who placed 6th in the NCAA 10,000 after an early 27:48. Of the backup crew, Kutoven Stevens (168th) ran a 28:44 since then and Josphat Meli (190th) ran a 28:38, well off his 27:59 PR. New names include Benedict Njoroge, who has run 28:45 at altitude.
10. Florida
Last year, the Gators, coached by Mike Holloway and Will Palmer, only had Kelvin Cheruiyot competing at Nationals, and finished a humble 11th in the SEC. Much has changed. Now Cheruiyot has a solid supporting cast. New recruit Eliud Muchiri, a Japan-based Kenyan, has run 27:41. Oussama Allaoui was SEC 1500 runner-up and had a PR 3:35. Josh Ruiz has run 13:50. Among the newcomers, mid-year JC transfer Geofrey Ronoh has run 29:17.64, recent transfer Ian Sanchez Lopez has a 13:55.13 and new frosh Mohammed El Moussalit has clocked 3:40.83. The team finished 2nd at McNichols.
Others To Watch:
Arkansas, Butler, Harvard, Michigan State, Northern Arizona, Notre Dame, Stanford, Washington, Wisconsin.
