2014 Final NCAA Men’s Formchart

compiled by John Auka (as of June 9)

Oregon Heads In As Favorite

There were no last-minute changes in the week since the Regionals, so our final NCAA Men’s Formchart of the year tells us the same message as almost all year: Oregon favored over Florida, but by no means will it be a slam-dunk, with a margin of only 6 points for Robert Johnson’s Ducks.

There are only 3 events where both teams are currently predicted to score: 400 (Florida 2 & 8, Oregon 3), 110H (Florida 3, Oregon 4 & 7) & 4×4 (Florida 2, Oregon 7). Obviously it wouldn’t take too much variance from those picks to change the scoring around considerably.

Where the host Ducks look to pick up a huge chunk of points is in the distances, with a 2nd in the 1500, 5th in the steeple, 2nd-6th-7th in the 5000 and 1st-5th-6th in the 10,000.

The 10-deep predictions for each event (with brief preview assessments):

Team Points Place On Last Chart
1. Oregon 78 (1)
2. Florida 72 (2)
3. Texas A&M 58 (3)
4. Arkansas 35 (4)
=5. Arizona 30 (=5)
=5. LSU 30 (=5)
=7. Oklahoma State 24 (=7)
=7. Texas Tech 24 (=7)
=7. USC 24 (=7)
=10. Georgia 23 (=10)
=10. Texas 23 (=10)
(complete team scores below)
1. Dentarius Locke Florida State Sr
2. Aaron Brown’ USC Sr
3. Trayvon Bromell Baylor Fr
4. Aaron Ernest LSU Jr
5. Senoj-Jay Givans’ Texas Fr
6. Raheem Mostert Purdue Jr
7. John Teeters Oklahoma State So
8. Clayton Vaughn UT Arlington Jr
9. Shavez Hart’ Texas A&M Jr
10. Darrell Wesh Virginia Tech Sr
Indoor sprint winner Locke will make up for being .02 sec back last year and could challenge the 9.89 NCAA record. Frosh Bromell could make it tight if he’s over leg woes that made him coast in his conference 200.
1. Dedrick Dukes Florida Jr
2. Aaron Brown’ USC Sr
3. Aaron Ernest LSU Jr
4. Prezel Hardy Texas A&M Sr
5. Shavez Hart’ Texas A&M Jr
6. Carvin Nkanata’ Pitt Sr
7. Brendon Rodney’ LIU Brooklyn Jr
8. Raheem Mostert Purdue Jr
9. Arthur Delaney Oregon Jr
10.Nethaneel Mitchell-Blake’ (LSU) So
Dukes is tops from his early 19.97 and several low 20’s. Canadian record holder Brown shows consistency that chasers Ernest, Hardy & Hart have lacked. A big team matchup for the Aggies and Gators.
1. Deon Lendore’ Texas A&M Jr
2. Gino Hall Florida So
3. Michael Berry Oregon Sr
4. Bralon Taplin’ Texas A&M Jr
5. Brycen Spratling Pitt Sr
6. James Harris Florida State Sr
7. Vernon Norwood LSU Jr
8. Hugh Graham Florida Jr
9. Michael Cherry Florida State Fr
10. Najee Glass Florida So
Indoor champ Lendore needs to win here for TAM title chances. 3 Gators must score well. Same for Duck Berry. Hall doubled indoors but no 200 here perhaps due to cramps at conference. Dark horse Seminole Harris has forsaken the HJ to seek 400 glory.
1. Brandon McBride’ Mississippi State So
2. Eliud Rutto’ Middle Tennessee So
3. Edward Kemboi’ Iowa State Jr
4. Patrick Rono Arkansas Jr
5. Sean Obinwa Florida Sr
6. Sam Ellison Villanova Sr
7. Keffri Neal’ Kentucky Jr
8. Ryan Schnulle Florida So
9. Chris Low Long Beach State Jr
10. Andres Arroyo Florida Fr
Canadian soph McBride has blossomed after nondescript frosh year and should add outdoor title title to his indoor honors. Gators have 3 entries & need a big score from the group for their team title chase.
1. Lawi Lalang’ Arizona Sr
2. Mac Fleet Oregon Sr
3. Brannon Kidder Penn State So
4. Peter Callahan New Mexico Jr
5. Jordan Williamsz’ Villanova So
6. Ben Saarel Colorado Fr
7. Rorey Hunter’ Indiana Jr
8. John Simons Minnesota Sr
9. Rich Peters Boston U Jr
10. Grant Pollock Virginia Tech Sr
Defending titleist Fleet beat Lalang in a slow April race. Expect Lalang to push the pace as he did at conference when he edged Cheserek in 3:36.34. Sydney Maree’s 3:35.30 collegiate record could fall.
1. Anthony Rotich’ UTEP Jr
2. Stanley Kebenei’ Arkansas Jr
3. Mason Ferlic Michigan So
4. Ole Hesselbjerg’ Eastern Kentucky Jr
5. Tanguy Pepiot’ Oregon Jr
6. Kyle King Virginia So
7. John Prizzi New Hampshire Jr
8. Jared Berman Virginia Tech Sr
9. Caleb Hoover Northern Arizona Jr
10. Andrew Gonzales Washington State Sr
Indoor mile winner Rotich is a probable lock to make it 2 in a row in the Steeple. Ducks need a high placing from Pepiot to sustain their role as team favorites.
1. Lawi Lalang’ Arizona Sr
2. Edward Cheserek’ Oregon Fr
3. Kennedy Kithuka’ Texas Tech Sr
4. Kirubel Erassa Oklahoma State Jr
5. Joe Rosa Stanford Jr
6. Eric Jenkins Oregon Jr
7. Trevor Dunbar Oregon Sr
8. Shadrack Kipchirchir’ Oklahoma State Sr
9. Stanley Kebenei’ Arkansas Jr
10. Patrick Tiernan’ Villanova Fr
Lalang should be fresher than his indoor nemesis Cheserek who may have a tough 10K on Wednesday. Ducks bring 4 to the this event which has a rich Oregon history.
10,000 METERS
1. Edward Cheserek’ Oregon Fr
2. Kennedy Kithuka’ Texas Tech Sr
3. Shadrack Kipchirchir’ Oklahoma State Sr
4. Mo Ahmed’ Wisconsin Sr
5. Parker Stinson Oregon Sr
6. Trevor Dunbar Oregon Sr
7. Luke Caldwell’ New Mexico Sr
8. Jim Rosa Stanford Jr
9. Joe Bosshard Colorado Sr
10. Chris Enriquez Long Beach State So
Kithuka seeks revenge for the licking Cheserek gave him in X-Country. Questions remain his pacing skills after fading at NCAA X-Country and Jordan Meet. Kipchirchir showed at the Jordan that he can sustain a very fast pace.
1. Wayne Davis’ Texas A&M Sr
2. Aleec Harris USC Sr
3. Eddie Lovett Florida Sr
4. Devon Allen Oregon Fr
5. Omar McLeod’ Arkansas Fr
6. Greggmar Swift’ Indiana State Sr
7. Johnathan Cabral Oregon Jr
8. Vincent Wyatt Radford Jr
9. Trevor Brown Colorado State Sr
10. Milan Ristic’ Cal Sr
Aggies, Ducks and Gators all expect big points here. Perhaps the tightest finish of the meet between defending champ Davis and the ascending Trojan Harris. Few frosh have shown the rapid improvement of the Ducks’ Allen. Aries Merritt’s 13.21 meet record may fall.
1. Michael Stigler Kansas Jr
2. Keyunta Hayes UT San Antonio Jr
3. Miles Ukoama Nebraska Sr
4. Gregory Coleman Texas A&M Jr
5. Tim Holmes Baylor Fr
6. Rilwan Alowonle North Carolina So
7. Josh Taylor SF Austin Jr
8. Tibor Koroknai’ Nebraska Sr
9. Trevor Brown Colorado State Sr
10. Quincy Downing LSU Jr
Six sub-50 hurdlers make for a quality race. Stigler was 2013 runnerup and may be ready for sub-49. Aggies need a high placing from Coleman to challenge for team title.
4 x 100
1. Florida Florida
2. Texas A&M Texas A&M
6. Florida State Florida State
5. Arizona State Arizona State
6. South Carolina South Carolina
7. Baylor Baylor
8. Nebraska Nebraska
9. Purdue Purdue
10. Arkansas Arkansas
2013 winner Florida always surprises here even with a lack of pure 100m guys. Little to separate the top three teams here as each is capable of dipping into low 38’s.
4 x 400
1. Texas A&M Texas A&M
2. Florida Florida
4. Pitt Pitt
5. Western Kentucky Western Kentucky
6. Nebraska Nebraska
7. Oregon Oregon
8. Ohio State Ohio State
9. Florida State Florida State
10. Arkansas Arkansas
Team title could be on line in this concluding event. All 4 Aggies made the 400 field. 3 Gators made it and 4th is 200 favorite Dukes. Could result in two teams under 3:00. Hometown Ducks might need to make the final to win the meet. LSU’s meet & Collegiate best of 2:59.59 is in jeopardy.
1. Nick Ross Arizona Sr
2. Bryan McBride Arizona State Jr
3. Jacorian Duffield Texas Tech Jr
4. Maalik Reynolds Penn Sr
5. Bradley Adkins Texas Tech So
6. Montez Blair Cornell Sr
7. Wally Ellenson Minnesota So
8. Kyle Landon Southern Illinois Fr
9. Justin Fondren Alabama So
10. Avion Jones East Carolina So
Ross jumps best when pushed. Ricky Robertson’s absence leaves few to push him. Pick ‘em for the rest of the places.
1. Sam Kendricks Mississippi Jr
2. Shawn Barber’ Akron So
3. Jake Blankenship Tennessee So
4. Andrew Irwin Arkansas Jr
5. Jax Thoirs’ Washington So
6. Colton Ross SF Austin Sr
7. Pauls Pujats’ Memphis Jr
8. Chase Wolfle Texas A&M So
9. Zach Siegmeier Minnesota Sr
10. Peter Geraghty Eastern Illinois Sr
Kendricks is another solid defending champ. Nine of the ten predicted placers have have topped 18’ this year.
1. Corey Crawford Rutgers Jr
2. Raymond Higgs’ Arkansas Sr
3. Marquis Dendy Florida Jr
4. Laderrick Ward Sn Illinois/Edwardsville Jr
5. Roelf Pienaar’ Arkansas State Fr
6. Jarvis Gotch Louisiana Tech Jr
7. Willie Alexander Long Beach State So
8. Devin Field Kansas State So
9. Ted Hooper UC Riverside Sr
10. Hammed Suleman Cal Sr
Crawford’s consistency makes him the favorite. Which Dendy will show up? The 24 or the 27 footer? Gators need points from him which were nonexistent last year. Indoor winner Lawson didn’t make it out of Regionals.
1. Marquis Dendy Florida Jr
2. Devin Field Kansas State So
3. Matthew Oneal South Florida So
4. Cordairo Golden Middle Tennessee Sr
5. Steve Waithe Penn State Jr
6. Donald Scott Eastern Michigan Jr
7. Jonathan Gardner Georgia Tech Sr
8. Damon McLean’ Princeton Sr
9. Raymond Higgs’ Arkansas Sr
10. Phillip Young Mississippi Jr
Dendy found his TJ form in his last two meets. He wins if he maintains. Former Texas prep star Field came out of nowhere to post 53’8 at West Regionals. Little separates the rest of the field.
1. Ryan Crouser Texas Jr
2. Stipe Zunic’ Florida Jr
3. Stephen Mozia’ Cornell Jr
4. Stephen Saenz’ Auburn Sr
5. Darrell Hill Penn State Jr
6. Jonathan Jones Buffalo Jr
7. Nick Vena Georgia Jr
8. Albert Fournette Louisiana-Lafayette Sr
9. Curtis Jensen Illinois State Sr
10. Nicholas Scarvelis UCLA So
Don’t bet against Crouser in his return to his native state. Zunic keeps getting better after abandoning the jav due to shoulder woes. His PR is up by over 9 feet in this past year. Quality & depth highlights the shot field this year. It may take 65’ to score.
1. Julian Wruck’ UCLA Sr
2. Chad Wright’ Nebraska Sr
3. Andrew Evans Kentucky Sr
4. Rodney Brown LSU Jr
5. Ryan Crouser Texas Jr
6. Stephen Mozia’ Cornell Jr
7. Mason Finley Wyoming Sr
8. Sam Mattis Penn So
9. Hayden Reed Alabama Fr
10. Tavis Bailey Tennessee Jr
Discus marks have exploded. All our predicted placers are over 203’ this year. Wruck no longer seems invulnerable. Wright almost caught him in 2013. Others are very close.
1. Nick Miller’ Oklahoma State Jr
2. Matthias Tayala Kent State Jr
3. Tomas Kruzliak’ Virginia Tech So
4. Greg Skipper Oregon So
5. Michael Lihrman Wisconsin Jr
6. Alex Poursanidis’ Georgia Fr
7. Elias Hakansson’ Alabama So
8. Chuk Enekwechi Purdue So
9. Jordan Young’ Arizona Fr
10. Kyle Strawn Florida Jr
Miller seeks to overcome his NCAA jitters of the past two years. He’s helped by Conatser’s absence due to appendicitis. Defending champ Kruzliak hasn’t matched prior year’s marks. Ducks need good placing from Skipper for the team battle.
1. Sam Crouser Oregon Jr
2. Raymond Dykstra’ Kentucky Jr
3. Tomas Guerra’ Western Kentucky So
4. Chris Carper Robert Morris Sr
5. Jay Stell Navy So
6. McLean Lipschutz Monmouth So
7. Fabian Dohmann’ Texas Fr
8. Justin Carter Auburn Fr
9. Garrett Snow Oklahoma So
10. Devin Bogert Texas A&M Jr
Crouser’s season best is 20’ off his PR probably due to knee woes but Hayward’s friendly venue should ease his pain. Jav marks unlike other throws are off this year.
1. Maicel Uibo’ Georgia So
2. Garrett Scantling Georgia Jr
3. Dakotah Keys Oregon Jr
4. Kevin Lazas Arkansas Sr
5. Zach Ziemek Wisconsin Sr
6. Johannes Hock’ Texas So
7. Devin Dick Kansas State Sr
8. Chase Dalton BYU Sr
9. Mike Morgan Buffalo So
10. Alex McCune Akron Jr
A Bulldog battle for first with Duck Keys chasing. Defending champ Hock is hampered by Tommy John elbow woes in the jav.
1. Oregon 78
2. Florida 72
3. Texas A&M 58
4. Arkansas 35
=5. Arizona 30
=5. LSU 30
=7. Oklahoma State 24
=7. Texas Tech 24
=7. USC 24
=10. Georgia 23
=10. Texas 23
12. Nebraska 19
=13. Florida State 16
=13. Kentucky 16
15. Penn State 14
=16. Middle Tennessee 13
=16. Wisconsin 13
=18. Arizona State 12
=18. Baylor 12
=18. Cornell 12
=18. Pitt 12
22. Kansas State 11
=23. Kansas 10
=23. Mississippi 10
=23. Mississippi State 10
=23. Rutgers 10
=23. UCLA 10
=23. UTEP 10
=23. Western Kentucky 10
=30. Akron 8
=30. Kent State 8
=30. UT San Antonio 8
=33. New Mexico 7
=33. Virginia Tech 7
=33. Villanova 7
=36. Auburn 6
=36. Iowa State 6
=36. Michigan 6
=36. Penn 6
=36. South Florida 6
=36. Tennessee 6
=42. Eastern Kentucky 5
=42. Purdue 5
=42. Robert Morris 5
=42. SF Austin 5
=42. Sn Illinois/Edwardsville 5
=42. Stanford 5
=48. Arkansas State 4
=48. Navy 4
=48. Washington 4
=51. Buffalo 3
=51. Colorado 3
=51. Eastern Michigan 3
=51. Indiana State 3
=51. Louisiana Tech 3
=51. Minnesota 3
=51. Monmouth 3
=51. North Carolina 3
=51. South Carolina 3
=51. Virginia 3
=61. Alabama 2
=61. Georgia Tech 2
=61. Indiana 2
=61. Long Beach State 2
=61. LIU Brooklyn 2
=61. Memphis 2
=61. New Hampshire 2
=61. Wyoming 2
=69. BYU 1
=69. Louisiana-Lafayette 1
=69. Ohio State 1
=69. Princeton 1
=69. Radford 1
=69. Southern Illinois 1
=69. UT Arlington 1