Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    The race is on WA's official YouTube channel. She didn't celebrate or ease up before the line. Slowing down at the end was due to fatigue.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMsZtOrE4YI
    I'm not so sure. Theres easing up and theres easing up. She was obviously tired, but she looked the same on the home straight in Lausanne too...until Seyni pulled up alongside her and you can clearly see she is able to react to the Niger athlete. I am sure she would have done the same had SMU been alongside her.

    I think in the right conditions, with both athletes in the race, they can both run faster. Or will it be, as someone else has suggested, a Beijing 2015 200m again?
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    #12
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    @El Toro I also think that wind aided Koch theory is also BS. I've never heard it about any other race on that track or any other. It sounds like people trying to find an explanation for an other worldly run. But sometimes runs are just other worldly.
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    #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    @El Toro I also think that wind aided Koch theory is also BS. I've never heard it about any other race on that track or any other. It sounds like people trying to find an explanation for an other worldly run. But sometimes runs are just other worldly.
    Koch's entire career was marked with astonishing consistency. She had 4 times clustered around 48.2 - 48.16, 48.16, 48.22, and 48.26. In 1 race she dropped her best by 0.56 seconds beating Bryzgina who ran 48.27 and never got close to it again .

    Hard for some people to be objective when it comes to their favorite athletes, isn't it.
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    #14
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    The fact that Koch's WR race came very late in the season (October 6) probably helped, as did Canberra's altitude (580m).
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    #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by trackCanuck View Post
    Koch's entire career was marked with astonishing consistency. She had 4 times clustered around 48.2 - 48.16, 48.16, 48.22, and 48.26. In 1 race she dropped her best by 0.56 seconds beating Bryzgina who ran 48.27 and never got close to it again .

    Hard for some people to be objective when it comes to their favorite athletes, isn't it.
    No need for bizarre, weak jabs. (well, that was more like a girlie pinch..) Koch is not one of my favourite athletes, and I have never said she is.

    A PB vastly superior to an athletes next best is not uncommon in the 400m, neither is having a cluster of runs around the same time. Koch is no way unique in this and maybe you should have looked at other athletes before coming to your (incorrect) conclusion that it was just Koch:

    Marie Jose Perec dropped her PB from 48.83 to 48.25 for a 0.58 improvement, virtually the same as Kochs. Her next 4 best runs were all within 15/100ths and clustered between 49.13 - 49.28 (49.13, 49.18, 49.19, 49.28). Oh, and guess what, that 48.25 was not run on the Canberra track.

    Cathy Freeman went from 49.48 to 48.63 for a 0.85 improvement. Her next fastest was 0.48 slower (49.11) then her next 4 best runs were within 17/100s and clustered between 49.39 - 49.56 (49.39, 49.48, 49.48, 49.56). And no, her 48.63 wasn't run in Canberra either.

    Kraotochvilova went from 48.45 to 47.99 for a 0.46 improvement in the same year. She had a 48.61 from 2 yrs previous, and then 3 runs within 3/100ths (48.82, 48.85, 48.86). Nope, her 47.99 wasn't in Canberra either.

    Kocembova went from 49.67 to 48.59 for a 1.08 improvement. She then had a 48.73 and then 5 runs all within 13/100ths of each other between 49.23 - 49.36 (49.23, 49.23, 49.30, 49.33, 49.36) Nope, none in Canberra.

    VBH went from 49.79 to 48.83 for a 0.96 improvement. Her next fastest was a massive 0.73 slower at 49.56, then 4 runs all within 11/100ths: 49.79, 49.83, 49.83, 49.90...no Canberra in there.

    Other point: As PJ pointed out, Koch's 48.22 from Stuttgart was run in the pouring rain. I mean, pouring rain, not light rain. That would have been comfortably under 48 seconds in normal conditions. In fact, that may have been the greatest women's 400m ever run. So in real terms, Koch would be 47.60, 47+, and then 3 runs between 48.18 and 48.26

    So, in conclusion, for the other big hitters I can be bothered to look at their performances, they all improved by big margins to their PBs, some much more than Koch; their PB is on average, quite superior to their next bests, and they all had either 2nd+ or 3rd+ marks all clustered within each other, just like Koch.

    Hard for some people to be objective when it comes to their least favorite athletes, isn't it.
    Last edited by Wiederganger; 12-11-2019 at 10:44 AM.
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    #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    No need for bizarre, weak jabs. (well, that was more like a girlie pinch..) Koch is not one of my favourite athletes, and I have never said she is.

    Hard for some people to be objective when it comes to their least favorite athletes, isn't it.
    Nothing wrong with being a Germanophile. It's one of the most obvious things about you.
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    #17
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    It does seem that Naser eased up in the last two strides looking at the clock. I doubt that's worth more than a tenth or so, but I do believe she could've gone (slightly) faster.
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    #18
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    No way easing two strides will slow her much more than she would be slowing at the end. Two steps only takes half a second; a 20% slowdown is not realistic.
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    #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by trackCanuck View Post
    Hard for some people to be objective when it comes to their favorite athletes, isn't it.
    Let's be objective, then.

    What we need to know is the Canberra race so at variance with other venues/races that a 400m tailwind is the likely explanation.

    To answer this, I pulled the W400 list from http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_400ok.htm and ranked each athlete's performances and then, looking at top 5 performances, I calculated the difference between their PB and the mean of the top 5.

    Note that this is not an analysis of improvement to PB but rather the difference over their entire career. I did not exclude active athletes.

    Let's look at the table for the difference between PB and 2nd best time:

    Rank Athlete PB No.2 Diff Location
    1 Aminatou Seyni 49.19 50.24 1.05 Lausanne
    2 Kathy Cook 49.43 50.46 1.03 Los Angeles
    3 Salwa Eid Naser 48.14 49.08 0.94 Ad-Dawhah
    4 Valerie Brisco 48.83 49.56 0.73 Los Angeles
    5 Shakima Wimbley 49.52 50.18 0.66 Des Moines
    6 LaTasha Colander 49.87 50.50 0.63 Sacramento
    6 Kseniya Ryzhova 49.80 50.43 0.63 Cheboksary
    8 Shaunae Miller-Uibo 48.37 48.97 0.60 Ad-Dawhah
    9 Olga Nazarova II 49.11 49.69 0.58 Seoul
    9 Marie-José Pérec 48.25 48.83 0.58 Atlanta
    11 Olga Zaytseva 49.49 50.06 0.57 Tula
    12 Marita Koch 47.60 48.16 0.56 Canberra
    13 Pauline Davis-Thompson 49.28 49.83 0.55 Atlanta
    14 Denean Hill 49.87 50.40 0.53 Seoul
    15 Tatyana Alekseyeva 49.98 50.49 0.51 Tula
    16 Cathy Freeman 48.63 49.11 0.48 Atlanta
    17 Wadeline Jonathas 49.60 50.07 0.47 Ad-Dawhah
    18 Jarmila Kratochvílová 47.99 48.45 0.46 Helsinki
    19 Ionela Târlea 49.88 50.32 0.44 Palma de Mallorca
    20 Donna Fraser 49.79 50.21 0.42 Sydney
    20 Mariya Pinigina 49.19 49.61 0.42 Helsinki
    22 Kseniya Aksyonova 49.92 50.33 0.41 Barcelona
    23 Kaliese Spencer 50.19 50.55 0.36 Rieti
    23 Ellen Streidt 50.15 50.51 0.36 Berlin
    23 Sabine Busch 49.24 49.60 0.36 Erfurt
    26 Taylor Ellis-Watson 50.25 50.60 0.35 Eugene
    26 Anja Rücker 49.74 50.09 0.35 Sevilla
    26 Francena McCorory 49.48 49.83 0.35 Sacramento
    29 Caster Semenya 49.62 49.96 0.34 Ostrava
    29 Fatima Yusuf 49.43 49.77 0.34 Harare
    31 Olga Bryzgina 48.27 48.60 0.33 Canberra

    As can be seen, both Marita Koch and Olga Bryzgina did not have an extraordinarily better race in Canberre than many others have had at other venues.
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    #20
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    If we look at the venues from the table above, we find that Canberra is not the most extreme venue for instances of two or more athletes achieving the biggest gaps from PB to 2nd best.

    Here is a table showing the average of all athlete's PB to 2nd best gap by venue as well as the number of athletes at each venue:

    Location MeanDiff Count
    Ad-Dawhah 0.67 3
    Atlanta 0.54 3
    Los Angeles 0.88 2
    Seoul 0.56 2
    Tula 0.54 2
    Sacramento 0.49 2
    Canberra 0.44 2
    Helsinki 0.44 2
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