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    Salwa Eid Naser interview
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    Interesting interview that came out a week or so ago with the Olympic Channel. In it Naser says "I slowed down a bit over the last 10 metres. I celebrated too early. I think if I had someone to push me to the finish line, I was going to run off, with a 47.9 or a 48.0"

    According to my friendly expert statistician & coach, to run that time at that speed, it would equate to 1.3m. The way she held off a fast finishing Seyni in Lausanne, I don't doubt she could have run a bit faster with SMU on her shoulder.

    She says she wants to go for the WR next season, I wonder how realistic this is? That would be over 5m quicker. She ran the first 200m in 23.1 in Doha, which I thought was probably optimal, but her opening 100m was 12.0 - in fact she ran 12.0 for her opening 100m in heat, SF and Final! - So with an 11.7-11.8 opener, maybe she could run a 22.9 opening 200m? Would she be strong enough at the end plus could she gain some back in that last 100m, (her 3rd 100m was a fantastic 11.9, reaching 300m in 35.0) her last 100m was 'only' 13.1 when we know she can run sub 13 in her final 100

    The full articel is here:
    https://www.olympicchannel.com/en/st...ransformation/
    Last edited by Wiederganger; 12-04-2019 at 01:48 PM.
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    #2
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    story was linked on our home page on the 21st of November
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    #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    She says she wants to go for the WR next season, I wonder how realistic this is? That would be over 5m quicker.
    Unless she's reached her lifetime peak at age 21, she will continue to get better. That is not an age at which the vast majority of athletes sitting high on the all time lists finish improving - yes I'm stating the very, very obvious.

    If she only improved by 50% of the average of her season to season improvement over the past 3 years, she'd still run 0.46 seconds faster next year, or 47.68.

    She is not finished at age 21. Far too good for that.
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    She might still be getting better, but OTOH it could be hard to replicate the perfect conditions of Doha. Also, according to reports, Marita Koch's WR was set in pretty abnormal conditions, with tailwind all the way around the track. Other than that, her best was 48.16, marginally slower than Naser's Doha time.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    Koch also 623m of altitude, which is something you don't much run into when running on the big-time circuit
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    She might still be getting better, but OTOH it could be hard to replicate the perfect conditions of Doha. Also, according to reports, Marita Koch's WR was set in pretty abnormal conditions, with tailwind all the way around the track. Other than that, her best was 48.16, marginally slower than Naser's Doha time.
    Quote Originally Posted by gh View Post
    Koch also 623m of altitude, which is something you don't much run into when running on the big-time circuit
    I've always thought of 48.16 as Koch's "believable" best. Naser is the 2nd fastest 400 runner ever, discounting a time with too many quirky variables, and oh so close to 2nd, at age 21. JK was 32 when she ran 47.99, Koch was 28 when she ran 47.60, 25 and 27 for her pair of 48.16s.

    The rest of the best :

    Perec 48.25 age 28
    SMU 48.37 25
    Bryzgina 48.60 22
    Kocembova 48.59 21
    Freeman 48.63 23
    VBH 48.83 24
    SRR 48.70 21

    And Kocembova was a flame-out, one or two season wonder, who went from 50.55 to 48.59 in one year, ran one more fast time a year later at 48.73, and never ran under 51 seconds again,[unacceptable generalization removed by mods]
    Last edited by gh; 12-05-2019 at 03:42 AM.
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    #7
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    With all due respect to Naser, I've read about a lot of athletes that thought they could have gone faster on a spectacular run or WR "if only"...
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    #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    She might still be getting better, but OTOH it could be hard to replicate the perfect conditions of Doha. Also, according to reports, Marita Koch's WR was set in pretty abnormal conditions, with tailwind all the way around the track. Other than that, her best was 48.16, marginally slower than Naser's Doha time.
    However Koch did 48.26 in Dresden 1984 with huge front wind in the back straight, in interview she said it was worth 47.7. Her 48.22 unopposed under the rain in Stuttgart EC 1986 was probably worth sub 48.

    I would not be surprised to see SEN and SMU under 48 next year, with SMU using different tactics and winning the race.
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    #9
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    The race is on WA's official YouTube channel. She didn't celebrate or ease up before the line. Slowing down at the end was due to fatigue.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMsZtOrE4YI
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    #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pierre-Jean View Post
    However Koch did 48.26 in Dresden 1984 with huge front wind in the back straight, in interview she said it was worth 47.7. Her 48.22 unopposed under the rain in Stuttgart EC 1986 was probably worth sub 48.

    I would not be surprised to see SEN and SMU under 48 next year, with SMU using different tactics and winning the race.
    I'm sure I've read somewhere that she expected 47.5 based on training times that were better than '84 but I can't remember where.

    Anyway, I have seen no evidence (but lots of opinion) that the Canberra race was wind-aided all the way.

    The stadium was not a horseshoe stadium, which produces this effect consistently with the right wind conditions, as mentioned several times here. Rather, it was a shallow bowl with the main grandstand blocking the prevailing winds in Canberra - W to NW (from behind the stadium).

    On that day, the wind was coming from behind the stadium with the strongest breezes earlier in the day quartering to the 100m start. This is reflected in the wind assistance down the straight.

    I was in that stadium that year (but not that day), and a couple of other times, in similar conditions and sat all around the stadium. Apart from gusty tailwinds on the main straight, the wind would be best described as swirling elsewhere.

    Now that's not definitive, but it's more useful than looking at a grainy video of a flag on the other side of the track right next to and level with the top of the main grandstand.

    This elevated position and location in the turbulence zone of the grandstand doesn't tell you anything about track level on the back straight and around the curves.
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