Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    Quote Originally Posted by rsb3 View Post
    To clarify, I do think Kipchoge is the best ever, I said as much in my earlier post. And I do think he can run faster. I think he could have run much faster the other day, if he wasn't running conservatively just to secure the sub 2 hour finish. However, I don't think that a 1:59.41 is much better than a 2:03, if you are one of those (like me) who believe that we need to evaluate the shoes as part of the performance, along with all the other factors. I agree with those that would love to see him try and run faster without all the "non-legal" accoutrements. Anyways, he's a great athlete for sure. I just don't think he has shown us yet that he's a "true" sub 2 hour guy, and I realize that means different things to different folks. And then there's the Women's Marathon !
    Agreed.
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    Some great results in the Toronto Marathon (and Canadian Olympic Trials) today. Best-ever times in Canada, and a couple of Canadians smashing their personal bests by many minutes, and making the team for Tokyo. We could play a silly guessing game, like... guess which shoes the winners and record-breakers were all wearing ? But everybody would get it right !
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    Saying that he is not a sub-2:00 is very different from saying that he is 'just a 2:03 guy'. I bet there is not a single one of the top 100 marathoners that share that opinion.
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    story now posted to home page says IAAF techies having a conference call today and suggests they will approve the shoes
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    Wow...great...it would have been a huge PR disaster otherwise....
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    A golden opportunity for the Millennium World Record crowd....10.49..Gone!...47.60..History!...1:53... Bye, Bye!
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    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    Saying that he is not a sub-2:00 is very different from saying that he is 'just a 2:03 guy'. I bet there is not a single one of the top 100 marathoners that share that opinion.
    Just from what I have read, from the "experts", there seems to be a consensus that there is at least 3 minutes, likely more, difference in the time... based on a combination of the shoes, and the pacing, the fueling protocols, etc. Is there any hard proof of exactly how much time is saved ? No ...
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    Which is why sequence of marks ranks below honors won and win/loss record in evaluating an athlete's season. Of course, as in the marathon when many of the top competitors only race twice a year, and do not race one another too frequently, it is more problematic.
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    So you really think that all of those 2:03 guys have a good chance of beating him if he is not wearing the new shoes or if they are wearing the same shoes. And, those 2:02 guys are likely to beat him. I do not think that there is anyone else on this board that thinks that; I suspect it would be near-unanimous that only returned Bekele has a good chance of beating him. Remember the only time he has lost was his second (in his first major marathon?) to a World Record. Conclusion - you adjustment factors are fiction; you can claim anything you want about what advantage they give him but he has been beating everyone on essentially equal terms. And, it is strange that you want to make a very strong conclusion when you yourself says that
    Is there any hard proof of exactly how much time is saved ? No ...
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    If you have the time (1 hour / 22 minutes), and the interest in this topic, there is a new podcast out ... "The Real Science of Sport Podcast - The Shoe That Broke Running". In spite of the over-the-top title, there is some interesting discussion here with host Mike Finch, Sport Scientist Ross Tucker, and Biomechanist Geoff Burns. Some takeaways, on my first listen ... the 4 % increase in running efficiency is real, and seems to translate to an average performance benefit of about 2.7 %, with individual differences of course. This leads to a "new era in the Marathon, ushered in by shoe technology", and we have a "recalibration" of running performances, where a "2:03 marathon is the new 2:05". There are a number of other interesting aspects being discussed also. You should be able to just google the title, or a link is on Ross Tucker's twitter, "@scienceofsport. Or, maybe someone can post a link here.
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