1:59...

[Conor Dary]

He ran 4:26 mile pace from 40k to the finish (6:04) so yes he had lots in the tank....Berlin could be interesting next year....

[ATK]

This mis-understands the 'race' (against time). It is like someone scoring an 800 on the SAT - you do not really know how much faster he could have gone. He did not go faster than 2:48 (or slower than 2:52). At the very end he sped up - and cut another 9-10 seconds from the pace in at most 500m. He was quite spry after the race (shades of Abebe Bikila). He likely could have run close to 1:59:00.

Actually, yes, that's a good point. He very well could have gone faster. Now that I think about it, the only option here was hitting the approximate time of 1:59 mid or going slower since surging mid way would mess up the "safe" controlled pace.

I still think it will be some decades before we actually see a legit 2 hr broken.

[TN1965]

While it is true that times have come down significantly in the last few decades, almost every factor that affects marathon running has been optimized and incentivized. I am inclined to think there are some limits to the improvements in performances that result from the 'efficiencies' that have been wrung out of perfected courses, ideal conditions, pacers, nutrition, training, shoes, etc., etc.

I used to think the same way until Nike's vaporfly cut Kipchoge's time by almost 90 sec., and then the same with Bekele's time. Actually, what changed my mind even more than those performances are Geremew's 2:02:55 and Legese's 2:02:48. I don't mean to be disrespectful, but 2:02 no longer seems that special after those two went sub-2:03. (I felt the same way about sub-2:05, when Duncan Kibet and James Kwambai went 2:04:27.)

I think the biggest variable in this question is how much the shoe technology changes in the next 10-15 years.

[TN1965]

So now, a 40-year-old (Eamonn Coghlan, 41 in 1994) broke 4 minutes for a mile (3:58.15); a 40-year-old (Kim Collins) broke 10.00 for the 100 (9.93 in 2016) and a man broke 2 hours for a marathon, even if officially it would be a training run.

What is there left? Will I live long enough to see a woman go under 4 minutes for a mile? That would require the 1,500 WR to drop by another 8 seconds. Sifan Hassan's 3:51.95 is good for 4:10.x.

If you include Masters records, the first thing that comes to my mind is sub-3 marathon for 60 & over women. (The current record is 3:01:30. We had the first sub-3:30 for W70 in Chicago last year.)

[18.99s]

For sub-2 to happen in a rules-compliant race within the next 15 years, these things need to happen:

1. A flat course better than Berlin.

2. A team of pacers who can provide a sub-2h pace to the halfway point, with least one of them capable of extending that to mile 18.

3. A massive bonus for running sub-2h regardless of place, such that finishing 2nd or 3rd while breaking 2 hours is far more lucrative than winning in more than 2 hours.

4. Have two or more evenly matched guys going for the 2 hour mark, convinced by the incentive of point 3 to cooperate and draft off each other when the pacers have dropped out, until the last quarter mile when it becomes every man for himself.

[scottmitchell74]

3. A massive bonus for running sub-2h r





I think this more than anything. Put this high enough (if someone would) and see what happens.

[CookyMonzta]

No way. This was the ultimate paced effort. It was like a laboratory experiment. In either a paced or un-paced real world race there would still be surges in the latter half. There would be different preparation and a different mental approach by the athletes.

If the WR were still 2:02:57, I'd agree with you; but Kipchoge and Bekele are not that much more than a minute and a half away from the 2-hour barrier. Kipchoge ran 1:01:06+1:00:33, and Bekele ran 1:01:05+1:00:36. If the two of them were at least 30 seconds faster at the first half, they probably would have come a lot closer to 2 hours with their negative-split speed; and once more, Bekele took a breather between 20K and 25K. Imagine if he had matched pace with Legese all the way, and went right by him sooner, at the same point when he was far behind and started his chase. He might have barely broken 2:01:00 or come extremely close.

[CookyMonzta]

If you include Masters records, the first thing that comes to my mind is sub-3 marathon for 60 & over women. (The current record is 3:01:30. We had the first sub-3:30 for W70 in Chicago last year.)

What did Joan Benoit-Samuelson (62) run in Berlin?

[CookyMonzta]

Actually, yes, that's a good point. He very well could have gone faster. Now that I think about it, the only option here was hitting the approximate time of 1:59 mid or going slower since surging mid way would mess up the "safe" controlled pace.

I still think it will be some decades before we actually see a legit 2 hr broken.

Decades? Given what I saw in Berlin in back-to-back years, we might see it before the end of the next decade. Remember: Kipchoge took a minute and 18 seconds off the previous WR. And what was Bekele's PR before he ran 2:01:41?

[CookyMonzta]

I’m betting 7 or 8 years before we see sub-2:00 in a real marathon.

Aye! It might not necessarily come from Kipchoge or Bekele.