1:59...

[DrJay]

I’m betting 7 or 8 years before we see sub-2:00 in a real marathon.

[Atticus]

I don't believe the drafting effect per se is of much significance in T&F, either. But protection from the wind does matter.

That is exactly my point too. Drafting on the track is negligible, but running a marathon inside a cordon of pacers is a significant help.

[Powell]

I’m betting 7 or 8 years before we see sub-2:00 in a real marathon.

If Kipchoge and Bekele don't do it, it could take a while for runners of comparable caliber to crop up. Look at how long Bekele's WRs on the track have remained unchallenged.

[ATK]

I’m betting 7 or 8 years before we see sub-2:00 in a real marathon.

Kipchoge did this and was "just" under 2hours. If he had smashed it by over a minute, then I would say someone can do it sooner on a perfect course run in perfect weather. I think closer to 2 decades will be when we see it really happen.

But the fact the Kipchoge physically felt what it's like is an amazing accomplishment.

[Conor Dary]

If Kipchoge and Bekele don't do it, it could take a while for runners of comparable caliber to crop up. Look at how long Bekele's WRs on the track have remained unchallenged.

What has obvious for awhile now the top East Africans aren't doing track distance races much anymore....most gravitate to the marathon where the money is ....it will be a long time before those records are broken if ever...

[Alan Shank]

Shalane Flanagan was touting how perfect the pacing was, as if the pacers were doing it by themselves. They did a great job protecting Kipchoge from air resistance, but the PACING was done for them. All they had to do was "follow the laser-green box"! >:-) I'm not denigrating their contribution to the whole effect, but keeping an even pace was not part of it.

Tokyo next year, if Kipchoge decides to try to emulate Bikila, is going to be another whole story -- no pacers, horrible weather, possible competition from several sub-2:04 guys. Bekele has said that he thinks he and Kipchoge will race some day, but in Tokyo? I will be surprised if Bekele runs in the Olympic marathon.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA, USA (42.195 kilometers from Sacramento)

[Conor Dary]

Somehow doing exactly 4:34 mile pace in a tight formation on world wide tv even with a green light can't be the easiest thing to do.....they did a great job.

[26mi235]

Kipchoge did this and was "just" under 2hours. If he had smashed it by over a minute, then I would say someone can do it sooner on a perfect course run in perfect weather. I think closer to 2 decades will be when we see it really happen.

But the fact the Kipchoge physically felt what it's like is an amazing accomplishment.

This mis-understands the 'race' (against time). It is like someone scoring an 800 on the SAT - you do not really know how much faster he could have gone. He did not go faster than 2:48 (or slower than 2:52). At the very end he sped up - and cut another 9-10 seconds from the pace in at most 500m. He was quite spry after the race (shades of Abebe Bikila). He likely could have run close to 1:59:00.

[Master403]

By my calculations it is equivalent to just under 105 and a half laps of a 400m track at 68.07s each lap.

Since you are going to 100ths, did you account for the short course prevention factor on the road course that the track does not have?

[26mi235]

For a long time I have felt that the marathon presented a real barrier to running 2:00:00. Specifically, the energetics, the difficulty in taking in enough fuel of high quality to make it to the end. However, improvements in: shoes, fueling, and training, combined with faster courses have changed things. When Bekele ran 2:01 I changed my mind on a sub-2:00. Both the 2:01 guys are at the end of their careers and are not likely to cut two minutes off but there are younger guys that were chasing them. At one point, EK chased a guy getting a WR; now look at these guys. The next Bekele/EK will put it close to 2:00.