Facts, Not Fiction

 

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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    My only criticism to this (and even that is negated by the very fact that it won't count as a WR) is that in a 'real' performance barrier-breaking event, he would have to contend with normal air resistance for much of the latter part of the race (when fatigue is beginning to sink in). The fact that he never had to contend with a very real hindrance somewhat tempers my enjoyment, though I am absolutely super-impressed by his feat. No one else on the planet could have done it, altho K Bek might have had a shot under these conditions.
    This effort will be more remembered than when it happens in a real Marathon, which I do hope happens soon.
    I agree with this, but I have to admit that I'm somewhat surprised that you're the same person who once offered these opinions on the benefits of drafting.

    My own experience watching bike races on TV informs me. The benefit of drafting in bike racing and car racing is obvious. On the other hand I have NEVER heard someone on my track team, in 25 years of coaching, talk about how 'drafting' helped them or even that they were aware of it. In my own (checkered) career of 5K racing, I never noticed any difference between running behind someone or running by myself, other than I preferred to stalk someone, rather than being stalked.
    Yes, in the same way that some people deny conspiracy theories. I think I'm being MORE scientific by demanding more proof than that one study, whose relevance I find tenuous at best. My skepticism needs much more than that to overcome. On the other hand, man-made contributions to climate change are well into the 'PROVED' category for me. That's where the real flat-earthers (and there are TENS OF MILLIONS of them - in the USA alone) reside.
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    I was thinking what adjustments could be made for New York. The only think I could think of is running the entire Central Park part along all of Fifth Avenue, instead of inside the park, to make the course "flatter." But changing the rest of the NY course would not be possible, due to the logistics!
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    I agree with this, but I have to admit that I'm somewhat surprised that you're the same person who once offered these opinions on the benefits of drafting.

    I don't believe the drafting effect per se is of much significance in T&F, either. But protection from the wind does matter.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I don't believe the drafting effect per se is of much significance in T&F, either. But protection from the wind does matter.
    The science says that not only does it make a different in track, but also that Kipchoge would have benefited even in zero-wind conditions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I don't believe the drafting effect per se is of much significance in T&F, either. But protection from the wind does matter.
    Not that again....

    "Athough over-ground running creates air resistance, such resistance brings an added aerobic demand only at velocities considerably faster than those routinely used in our evaluations. According to the studies of Pugh (1970), the effect of air resistance starts to increase O2 consumption measurably only at faster paces. As an example, at a pace of 4:35 min/mile (13 mi/hr; 350 m/min), the additional aerobic demand is 5.7 ml/kg/min. Indeed, this added energy demand to a front-runner in a fast-paced race is used to advantage as a tactical maneuver by runners who remain in that runner’s wind shadow.”

    “Better Training for Long Distance Runners” by Dr. David Martin, physiologist, and Peter Coe, engineer and father and coach of Sebastion Coe....
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    Quote Originally Posted by berkeley View Post
    Two 50 second laps would be a thing of beauty. I hope it happens in my lifetime (I'm 58), but the rate of improvement has slowed a lot since Coe.
    The 800 WR has been unusual for about 80 years. A 7.5 sec improvement since Wooderson in 1938, with 4.9 sec. of that by three people (Harbig/Snell/Coe(2)). With a 0.8 sec. improvement since 1981, perhaps we are due for another big chunk to be sliced off - a sub 1:40?
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    I am still surprised at the coverage from the general public over this thing....typical is this on the Twitter account of a Washington Post political reporter....

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    I will be happy to be wrong about this assertion, but I do not expect to see a sub-2 hour marathon in normal record-eligible circumstances any time soon.

    While it is true that times have come down significantly in the last few decades, almost every factor that affects marathon running has been optimized and incentivized. I am inclined to think there are some limits to the improvements in performances that result from the 'efficiencies' that have been wrung out of perfected courses, ideal conditions, pacers, nutrition, training, shoes, etc., etc.

    Even in this era of optimized (legal and otherwise) preparation and performances and well-incentivized events, other than the two GOATs (Kipchoge and Bekele), only 3 men have run a sub-2:03:30 winner, and that includes the wind-blown Boston of 2011: Dennis Kimetto, Geoffrey Mutai, and Wilson Kipsang. (I am not trying to re-start an argument about the status of that Boston performance; rather, because so few sub-2:04 competitions have occurred, I thought I might as well include it here.) And after those, only 3 other men not already mentioned have produced sub-2:04 winners: Getaneh Molla, Patrick Makau, and that other GOAT, Haile G.

    The other significant factor against rapid progression of the marathon WR is that athletes really have just 2 shots a year at this: London and Berlin (and really, Berlin looks clearly like the better option, if one is really going for a WR attempt). 18 of the 26 sub-2:04 (again, inclusive of Boston 2011) have been run at Berlin or London. The other venues that have produced sub-2:04 have been 'one-off' exceptions: Boston 2011, Frankfurt 2011, Chicago 2013, Tokyo 2017, Dubai 2019 (though one can easily imagine Dubai producing more in this range).

    Because of the number of factors in play, and the number of contingencies that have to be corrected for (or attempted to be corrected for), everything has to be perfect even to consider a WR record attempt. And if one combines few opportunities with lots of contingencies, a career can go by without a perfect moment happening.

    Finally, while it is abundantly clear that Kipchoge and Bekele are exceptional, I'm not sure that a lot of the others running 2:03-2:05 now are that much better than those running 2:06-2:08 a generation ago. Here is an unproveable assertion: I am convinced that Steve Jones at his best, given all the advantages of the present day (the course and conditions of Berlin, pacers, nutrition, Nike Vaporfly shoes, etc.), would be rather faster than 2:07-low.

    As always, these priceless opinions are yours to ignore!
    Last edited by Master Po; 10-12-2019 at 07:53 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by berkeley View Post
    Of course it will be repeated. Might take a few more years, but the record has dropped steadily from 2:06:05 to 2:01:39 over the last 20 years, so it would be unreasonable to think that it won't drop below 2:00 in the next 20, probably much sooner.
    My response was to post #116, which I took to mean in the here and now, not for the future.
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    Quote Originally Posted by gh View Post
    in NYC or Boston you probably couldn't do 1:59 in a car! :-)
    A few years back the BBC show Top Gear held a race along the course of the London Marathon during the morning traffic between a car and a 2:24 marathoner. The runner won.
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