Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    I absolutely agree with you, Iím just left with the what ifís... How much was left in the tank for SMU? Coming into this race I believed Naserís capability right now was 48.5-48.7 and the race would play out with SMU catching her down the home straight and pulling away in the last 50m, winning in 48.2-48.3. Obviously, this did not happen and my prediction was incorrect.

    I am a massive fan of SMU (I was actually so nervous I was shaking 15 minutes out from the race) and am very gutted for her not to win this one with such an amazing performance. I am more gutted for her knowing that she really could have won this race. Iím sure if she knew where Naser was at 200-250m, she would have pushed more 150m out to put pressure on Naser. But what a treat to witness the greatest womenís 400m race of the modern era. I think Maicelís Silver in the decathlon will console her, what a team effort from the Uiboís.

    At the end of the day, what a performance from Naser and SMU. We fans have been treated to the greatest 400m race of the modern era (possibly of all time) and also to Jackson, Jonathas and Francis all running mid 49. What a race.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    Whilst her return this year has been impressive in the context of her birth, Felix is not in the same territory as the gold and silver medalists here, not in the individual. They're both a second faster than her, and much younger. As doe her US colleagues, which you were referring to I know, yourw right, these are very talented young women who will be hungry for more next year.
    Which is exactly why I mentioned Jonathas' huge improvement--and perhaps the potential for consistency--presenting a bigger problem for Allyson right now. And if Sydney McLaughlin decides she wants to double, Allyson had better consider the 800.
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    Quote Originally Posted by _Jay View Post
    Based on this performance....Can Naser challenge SMU in the 200m as well.

    All indications would lead you to believe that to run 48.14, sheís gotta be WELL under 22, NO?

    Sheís gotta be in DAS territory at the minimum. Iím intrigued!
    No. 22 flat is going to be about her limit. Maybe 21.9 but that's about 2 years away.
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    Quote Originally Posted by joshie66 View Post
    Approximate splits for all 3 rounds. Round progression from left to right, 100m split progression from top to bottom.

    Salwa Eid Naser
    12.0 (12.0) - 12.0 (12.0) - 12.0 (12.0)
    23.3 (11.3) - 23.3 (11.3) - 23.1 (11.1)
    36.0 (12.7) - 35.8 (12.5) - 35.0 (11.9)
    50.7 (14.7) - 49.7 (13.9) - 48.1 (13.1)

    Shaunae Miller-Uibo
    12.0 (12.0) - 12.0 (12.0) - 11.7 (11.7)
    23.9 (11.9) - 23.7 (11.7) - 23.6 (11.5)
    37.6 (13.7) - 35.9 (12.2) - 35.6 (12.0)
    51.3 (13.7) - 49.6 (13.7) - 48.3 (12.7)

    Naser ran a very smart tactical race along with a simply astounding display of sprint endurance. Who would have ever thought Naser would lead SMU by 0.5 at 200m, and 0.6 at 300m. Naserís Backstretch was simply out of this world!

    SMU needed to be at about 23.2-23.3 then 35.0-35.2 to have a chance at running her optimal performance (little did she know, her optimal performance is what it would have taken to win or even seriously challenge Naserís run). It would have been a different race had SMU been inside Naser or even lane 5 or 6 instead of 3 lanes outside. But, as much as I believe SMU could have run 48.0 and won this race, she needs to learn from this and not sleep on Naser ever again. Naser absolutely deserves this for being brave, smart, tactical and unbelievably fit. True world record!
    I think you have a minor error in your splits. SMU second 100 was only 11.9 not 11.5...Nasser ran 11.1. That is pretty much where the race was won. Nasser was aggressive and knew her fitness that she could finish fairly strong. SMU likely did not anticipate Nasser to be so strong and so far ahead at 300m.
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    I think SMU could have gone faster but I donít think she thought Naser could have gone faster. I thought Naser topped out at 48.7 or so for this year. A 48.1 is ridiculous! Naser could have beaten MJP in her peak!

    And I doubt Naser being on her outside would have helped SMU because likely she would have seen the pace that Naser is running and not challenge her assuming (as we all did) that there is no way that Naser could keep pace. I kept expecting SMU to claw back at Naser and for Naser to implode and probably end up like 3rd or 4th.

    Letís not forget that Naser ran 2 rounds of the mixed 4x400! And those werenít easy runs either. SMU came into this race a lot more rested that Naser. There is no way she could have predicted a 49.1. Most of us here were predicting a 48.6 - 48.5 for SMU. She ran 48.3 and lost.... This is insane. Absolutely insane.

    Beautiful race!!!!

    Great job to Jackson for finding a way to medal in this race too with a PB.
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    Quote Originally Posted by joshie66 View Post
    I absolutely agree with you, Iím just left with the what ifís... How much was left in the tank for SMU? Coming into this race I believed Naserís capability right now was 48.5-48.7 and the race would play out with SMU catching her down the home straight and pulling away in the last 50m, winning in 48.2-48.3. Obviously, this did not happen and my prediction was incorrect.

    I am a massive fan of SMU (I was actually so nervous I was shaking 15 minutes out from the race) and am very gutted for her not to win this one with such an amazing performance. I am more gutted for her knowing that she really could have won this race. Iím sure if she knew where Naser was at 200-250m, she would have pushed more 150m out to put pressure on Naser. But what a treat to witness the greatest womenís 400m race of the modern era. I think Maicelís Silver in the decathlon will console her, what a team effort from the Uiboís.

    At the end of the day, what a performance from Naser and SMU. We fans have been treated to the greatest 400m race of the modern era (possibly of all time) and also to Jackson, Jonathas and Francis all running mid 49. What a race.
    My thing is I really donít think Miller would go after Naser if she saw her head out like that. I genuinely think she would have ran her own race (Miller) assuming that Naser would implode. Miller knows the dangers of going out too fast and imploding. And before now everyone thought Miller was just miles ahead of the field.
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Flying Pigdog View Post
    I think you have a minor error in your splits. SMU second 100 was only 11.9 not 11.5...Nasser ran 11.1. That is pretty much where the race was won. Nasser was aggressive and knew her fitness that she could finish fairly strong. SMU likely did not anticipate Nasser to be so strong and so far ahead at 300m.
    Thank you for correcting that split, it is 11.9 not 11.5. Absolutely that is where the race was won. I did expect Naser to be where she was at 200m and 300m and thatís why I donít think SMU ran the absolute best race she was capable of with her speed advantage. Though, after the way she tied up in the last 2 championships I cannot blame her for being slightly conservative down the back stretch and the turn. I really hope she has not missed her last chance to win a major gold over Naser because Naserís potential is extraordinary still, even after running 48.14.
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    Quote Originally Posted by t_monk View Post
    I think SMU could have gone faster but I don’t think she thought Naser could have gone faster. I thought Naser topped out at 48.7 or so for this year. A 48.1 is ridiculous! Naser could have beaten MJP in her peak!

    And I doubt Naser being on her outside would have helped SMU because likely she would have seen the pace that Naser is running and not challenge her assuming (as we all did) that there is no way that Naser could keep pace. I kept expecting SMU to claw back at Naser and for Naser to implode and probably end up like 3rd or 4th.

    Let’s not forget that Naser ran 2 rounds of the mixed 4x400! And those weren’t easy runs either. SMU came into this race a lot more rested that Naser. There is no way she could have predicted a 49.1. Most of us here were predicting a 48.6 - 48.5 for SMU. She ran 48.3 and lost.... This is insane. Absolutely insane.

    Beautiful race!!!!

    Great job to Jackson for finding a way to medal in this race too with a PB.
    I'm not sure SMU would have run differently with an inside lane but at least she would have had longer to make a choice and possibly react to what Naser was doing so maybe she could be just a bit closer going into the final 100m. As it stood she really only saw her when she was coming past her on the final bend and at that point she didn't have much choice she had to stick to her race and try and haul her in on the straight. She did close particularly in the last 30m but Naser had just judged it perfect.

    SMU ran an incredible race and lost. Tokyo could be incredible, SMU may end up doing something like she did in Rio and running scared on the outside if she's drawn there instead of taking it easy in the middle of the race.
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    note from mods: that kind of innuendo is forbidden here; please don't do it again
    Last edited by gh; 10-03-2019 at 11:07 PM.
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    ah F^*K me !!!

    Can't believe I missed one of the greatest races ever... Going to watch the replay 3-4 times now...
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