Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill S View Post
    NOP is in shambles as of a couple hours ago.
    I suspect that NOP has some preparations for this contingency. Given some of the comments in the thread on the Ban, I can see why NOP might think that they would win. I am not sure but there does not seem to be a lot of there there. Some of the admissions by USADA and some of the assertions that were not upheld by the arbitrators, the CAS appeal might have a different outcome.
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    #32
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    To demonstrate how ridiculously weak the women's 5000 has become, Sifan Hassan is the betting favorite. That is correct. Some sites have it off the board but others have limited offerings with Hassan a mild favorite in the 5/4 (+125) range.

    Those sites know that Hassan has declared for the 1500. But just in case they are still keeping her name on the board for the 5000. If she did decide to contest the 5000 while rested it would be more like 1/5 or 1/6 favoritism, if not considerably higher. It was already in the 1/3 (-300) range while Hassan was debating between the two races. Anyone who wagered on Hassan at 5/4 would not get their money back if she doesn't race the event. You are getting an incredible bargain at 5/4 if she does run, but the risk is that she maintains her current plan to race the 1500 only.

    Here is the numerical perspective: Hassan is only a mild favorite in the 1500. Her betting line is in the 4/6 (-150) range. That low favoritism is due to the presence of Faith Kipyegon, who is now anywhere from 3/1 to 7/2. Nobody else in any event is worthy of being only 3/1 or 7/2 in the same field with Sifan Hassan.

    IMO, the 7/2 on Kipyegon is an incredible bargain. Go back to the Prefontaine race and note how easily Kipyegon dispatched of Laura Muir down the stretch. Then the track announcer started hyping a rallying Shelby Houlihan. Kipyegon obviously heard the announcer because she glanced right to look for Houlian. Meanwhile it was a joke. Houlihan was no threat to Kipyegon, whose glance lasted a half second or so.

    Hassan can certainly defeat Kipyegon, given current level. But she better get the strategy absolutely correct. Kipyegon is far superior to Hassan in that regard. If Hassan thinks she can leave it late I don't like her chances.

    Current form means next to nothing at that level, as evidenced by recent races like the men's 5000 and semis of the men's steeplechase. Doubt the elite reigning champions merely because they have had a quiet 2019 and you are a monumental fool.

    For reference, Hassan at -150 is the money line equivalent of a 2.5 point favorite in an NFL game. If she had raced the 5000 instead, she would be the money line equivalent of roughly a 12 point favorite. That is admittedly an estimate but I doubt it is too far off. A 12 point favorite is roughly 1/6. Even if Hassan somehow was only 1/3 chalk in the 5000 her decision is the equivalent of choosing to be a 2.5 point favorite instead of a 7.5 point favorite. This is hardly linear the higher it goes.

    Maybe Hassan will get away with it. After all, favoritism remains. But many fans are seriously overestimating the worth of that world record at a similar distance, in comparison to avoiding Faith Kipyegon or forced to defeat her.

    Others as well, obviously. The 1500 is a considerably stronger field than the 5000 in general. But make no mistake, remove Kipyegon from the race and Hassan's favoritism soars. Muir is next in line at 7/1 and Klosterhalfen 9/1. Houlihan is 11/1.
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    #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    Masback today said she was doing the 5000.
    That's when I knew we would see her in the 1500.
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    #34
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    Very impressive 4:04.00 by Hiltz for 3rd in first heat. Sometimes, especially when you've just risen to the internationally competitive level, you have to run a near-PR just to assure yourself of advancing. She was able to dig down and do that.
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    #35
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    How far has Houlihan come back?
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    #36
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    One ridiculously slow semi, with Hassan winning in 4:14, and one extremely fast one, with Jessica Hull running 4:01.80 and missing out.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #37
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    It was six for five spots in the straight in the first, slow heat. Sarah McDonald, 4:00 PB, missed out.

    It was eight for seven spots in the second, fast heat and, as mentioned, Hull missed out despite running a PB. Nikki Hiltz ran a two second PB to nab the seventh spot.
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    #38
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    3 from the US in the final. (and another N. American!)
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    #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Jessica Hull running 4:01.80 and missing out.
    Elbowed out, actually, by Nanyondo down the stretch. This ain't the NCAA . .
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    #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayIsMe View Post
    Elbowed out, actually, by Nanyondo down the stretch. This ain't the NCAA . .
    Yes, that happened. If there is a protest, hope they make a decision either way and don't advance both.
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