Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATK View Post
    I don't know if I should be excited or not get my expectations too high for this race. The men's hurdles were below what many expected time wise, but then the women's 400 completely exceeded anyone's expectations.
    Always be realistic - WRs don't come in bunches - but hope for a great race. I do think that the USATF was probably the race of the year as Little is the 4th best 400H in the world and she's watching this race.
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    #52
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    BTW, the w400 might tamp down talk of SM switching to the flat 400...
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    #53
    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    BTW, the w400 might tamp down talk of SM switching to the flat 400...
    Or just ramp up the talk of her ability to break 48
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    #54
    I'd be happy if I'm wrong, but we won't see a world record in this event in Doha. Almost every first-time world record for an athlete in an individual event (and should-be world records like Naser's 48.14 and Jeter's 10.64) happened only when practically nobody in the spectating public was expecting it. The athlete or their coach or training partner might have expected it, but not the public.

    Nobody expected Muhammad's 52.2 world record this summer. Nobody expected Kevin Young's 46.78 world record. Nobody expected Bolt's first world record of 9.72. Nobody expected Asafa Powell's first world record of 9.77. Nobody remotely expected Chepkoech's 8:44 steeplechase record. Nobody expected MJ's first record of 19.66 to happen when it happened.

    Some might bring up Kipchoge's record in Berlin which was expected by many, but it was preceded by the quasi-record of 2:00:25, and nobody seriously expected that. That performance was at least equivalent to the official record of 2:02:57 back then, and it was the reason people expected him to break the official world record.
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    #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    I'd be happy if I'm wrong, but we won't see a world record in this event in Doha. Almost every first-time world record for an athlete in an individual event (and should-be world records like Naser's 48.14 and Jeter's 10.64) happened only when practically nobody in the spectating public was expecting it. The athlete or their coach or training partner might have expected it, but not the public.

    Nobody expected Muhammad's 52.2 world record this summer. Nobody expected Kevin Young's 46.78 world record. Nobody expected Bolt's first world record of 9.72. Nobody expected Asafa Powell's first world record of 9.77. Nobody remotely expected Chepkoech's 8:44 steeplechase record. Nobody expected MJ's first record of 19.66 to happen when it happened.

    Some might bring up Kipchoge's record in Berlin which was expected by many, but it was preceded by the quasi-record of 2:00:25, and nobody seriously expected that. That performance was at least equivalent to the official record of 2:02:57 back then, and it was the reason people expected him to break the official world record.
    Good points. Going back further, as a Brit, I think pretty much none of us expected Coe's 1:42.33 in 1979 or David Moorcroft's 13:00.42 in '82.
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    #56
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    MJ was not surprising, he was better than FF but had just gotten beaten, if I recall correctly. He was the top 200 guy and 19s were common and he had been good for a long time already.

    9.77 I think, came came after a qualifying race of 9.78 or 9.79 and with no wind. There was a little better wind for the Final, but I probably would have been more surprised if he did not break it. And, it is not like he was at 9.95 before that; I don't think that it was that big of a PR.
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    #57
    I just hope we get a great race, the flat 400 really wet my appetite for this especially as its got the same sort of vibe with two people going head to head.
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    #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by ATK View Post
    I don't know if I should be excited or not get my expectations too high for this race. The men's hurdles were below what many expected time wise, but then the women's 400 completely exceeded anyone's expectations.
    Same...
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    #59
    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    9.77 I think, came came after a qualifying race of 9.78 or 9.79 and with no wind.=
    What I meant was expectations before the meet, not expectations built up after a great preliminary run in the same meet.

    After Powell ran 9.84 that season, there was a generalized expectation that he might break the world record someday, but there wasn't that specific expectation for the particular meet where he first ran 9.77.
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    #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Bowie View Post
    I see Syd putting it all together this time and dipping below 52 seconds.
    As much as I enjoy watching Syd progress and am excited about her future, I donít think itís her time yet. Iím the semi, she looked very high over the hurdles and seemed to be getting by more on her speed then her technique. Perhaps the combination of a blazing fast track and her natural speed made for a difficult technical race, but in order for her to really step up she will have to make some major adjustments for the final.

    Sheís good enough to win, which is saying a lot considering her competition, but to run that time she has in her, she will need to make serious adjustments to her stride pattern.
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