Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trickstat View Post
    Kendall and Devon Williams may be the best sister/brother hurdles combo as well as a multi-events one.
    Does the 400H count? Sydney and Taylor McLaughlin are pretty good.
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    #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Davidokun View Post
    Update after incorporating announced high jump height progression:

    ]Projected
    Thiam 6847
    Johnson-Thompson 6632
    Why do you think Thiam will finish over 200 pts ahead of KJT?
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    #13
    Kendell Williams looked like a different athlete. Superb start to the hept.
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    #14
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    Update after 100 hurdles:

    Projected
    Rank
    Name
    Projected
    Score
    Difference from
    Initial Projection
    1
    Thiam
    6866
    +19
    2
    Johnson-Thompson
    6685
    +53
    3
    Preiner
    6426
    +66
    4
    Vetter
    6397
    +25
    5
    Bougard
    6375
    +17
    6
    Williams
    6372
    +77
    7
    Broersen
    6257
    +20
    8
    Huntington
    6185
    -3
    9
    Ruckstuhl
    6180
    +37
    10
    Oosterwegel
    6160
    +27
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    #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davidokun View Post
    Krizsán is no longer on the start list.
    Aren't I glad I picked her for Bronze!
    Did I miss something that should have told me she wasn't going to compete?
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    #16
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    That Kendall Williams performance is a perfect example of the thing I love best about sports in general - the moment when an athlete does something truly special and then the sheer joy that follows it. (This might be my #2 "moment", after a figure skating performance by Aren Nielsen back in 1993.)
    And the multis are just an added bonus in that the fellowship among the competitors is such that the others were just as thrilled as she was.

    I hope she can follow this up with a big score for the 7 events to top it off.

    And the flip side is the agony of a moment like Dadic.
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    #17
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    David can you add a quick explanation of where your projections come from? Does it start with a personal assessment, or strictly quantitative?
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    #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    Aren't I glad I picked her for Bronze!
    Did I miss something that should have told me she wasn't going to compete?
    I doubt it. She was included in the initial start list. I noticed her absence last night.
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    #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    Why do you think Thiam will finish over 200 pts ahead of KJT?
    Quote Originally Posted by cigar95 View Post
    David can you add a quick explanation of where your projections come from? Does it start with a personal assessment, or strictly quantitative?
    My projections are based on summing average event performances. For the women, I average over one year (the present year). For the men, I average over two years (the previous year and the present year). Previous experience has shown that these sample periods result in more accurate predictions.

    The primary purpose of these projections is to enhance the fan experience by providing some insight into the actual leaders, who may or may not top the leaderboard early in the competition.

    The athletes generally outscore these projections because they are peaking for this championship event. The difference may be viewed as a shortcoming of my present methodology. Alternatively, it may be viewed as a measure of successful preparation by coaches and athletes.
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    #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davidokun View Post
    The primary purpose of these projections is to enhance the fan experience . . . The athletes generally outscore these projections because they are peaking for this championship event.
    It certainly enhances THIS fan's experience, and I like that they are 'conservative'.
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