Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #41
    I think Engels can medal but he needs to be in the right position at the homestretch. He can close.

    Centro? His race at the semis was unconvincing.
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    #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by midwestfan View Post
    The men's and women's 1500 heats showed the bias for being in last heat. In the men's three heats:
    1st heat only one got in by time
    2nd heat two got in by time
    3rd heat three got in by time

    In women's semi-final:
    1st heat none got in by time
    2nd heat two got in by time

    In men's semifinal:
    1st heat none got in by time
    2nd heat two got in by time

    I don't know how to even up the heats without last heat finalists being allowed to change their pre race strategy from A to B to C base on information from previous heats that the others lack. It is refreshing not to have any rabbits and pure competition between the field.
    You could just do 2 heats, six qualify; this puts a lot of importance on seeding, but it does remove the advantage of being in the last heats.
    Personally, I prefer pure place qualifying.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
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    #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alan Shank View Post
    You could just do 2 heats, six qualify; this puts a lot of importance on seeding, but it does remove the advantage of being in the last heats.
    Personally, I prefer pure place qualifying.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
    So do I for the reasons stated. Seeding has be to be better, but so do the athletes earlier in the season to get a good seeding. Time qualification ignores race dynamics. Qualification by place rewards the better racers.
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    #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by midwestfan View Post
    The men's and women's 1500 heats showed the bias for being in last heat. In the men's three heats:
    1st heat only one got in by time
    2nd heat two got in by time
    3rd heat three got in by time

    In women's semi-final:
    1st heat none got in by time
    2nd heat two got in by time

    In men's semifinal:
    1st heat none got in by time
    2nd heat two got in by time
    You omitted the w1500 heats, which don't confirm your theory
    Heat 1: 4 q's
    Heat 2: 0 q's
    Heat 3: 2 q's

    Also, looking at other events
    m800 heats
    ht 1: 0
    ht 2: 1
    ht 3: 0
    ht 4: 2
    ht 5: 2
    ht 6: 1

    m800 semis
    ht 1: 2
    ht 2: 0
    ht 3: 0

    w800 heats
    ht 1: 0
    ht 2: 2
    ht 3: 2
    ht 4: 2
    ht 5: 0

    w800 semis
    ht 1: 0
    ht 2: 0
    ht 3: 2

    m5000 heats
    ht 1: 1
    ht 2: 4

    w5000 heats
    ht 1: 4
    ht 2: 1

    mSC heats
    ht 1: 4
    ht 2: 1
    ht 3: 1

    wSC heats
    ht 1: 4
    ht 2: 2
    ht 3: 0

    I know it's often repeated that people in the last heat have an advantage when it comes to time qualifiers, but in reality, watching major championships over the years, I don't see it having much of an effect, if any.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #45
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    Regardless of whether there is such an effect in the long run or not, in this particular case the two semis were equally fast, it was just coincidence that the time qualifiers happened to come from semi 2. No way were they aiming for that split-second window.
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    #46
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    40 minutes until the 1500 Final.. predictions??
    I am going for:
    1st: Jakob Ingebrigtsen
    2nd: Cheriuyot
    3rd: toss up Engel or Makhloufi
    Centrowitz could be in top 3 if pace is at 3:48 again
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    #47
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    really no idea how this one is gonna shake out. just hope the ingebrigtsens don't continue with their trends of running all over the place regardless of contact and the inside of the track
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    #48
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    Cheriuyot with the 2012 Rudisha strategy. Beautiful run.
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    #49
    Well deserved front run.
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    #50
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    fastest non-rabbit race ever?
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