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    WC records
    #1
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    Time for the obligatory analysis of the probability of seeing new meet records. Here's my take:

    MEN

    Likely

    800 1:43.06
    400H 47.18
    SP 22.23

    Possible

    5000 12:52.79
    PV 6.05
    DT 70.17
    JT 92.80
    Dec 9045

    WOMEN

    Likely

    3000St 9:02.58
    400H 52.42

    Possible

    1500 3:58.52
    5000 14:26.83
    100H 12.28
    TJ 15.50

    others?

    [occasioned by the stupendous PDF offered on the home-page, re: IAAF Statbook (page 14)]
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    #2
    Farther outside shots:
    W100m - 10.70
    MTJ - 18.29m
    M 4x4 - 2:54.29

    I know the last two are WRs!
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    #3
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    I find the idea we have four men's 400 guys (hurdlers included) that can even run 254.x hard to imagine.
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    #4
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    Not sure I'd rate the m800 or the w400H as likely. Possible, certainly.

    2:54.29... yes, a longshot, but I'd still consider that more likely than the men's 5000. A team with Norman, Kerley and Benjamin as the core can break the WR if they really go for it and pick the right fourth guy... though I have no idea who the right fourth guy is.
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    #5
    400H 52.42
    Sorry, not likely.

    Muhammad already had her peak of peaks and won't break 53 again until next season. SydMac isn't likely to break 52.5 this season. Possible, but not likely.
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    #6
    Quote Originally Posted by LopenUupunut View Post
    2:54.29... yes, a longshot, but I'd still consider that more likely than the men's 5000. A team with Norman, Kerley and Benjamin as the core can break the WR if they really go for it and pick the right fourth guy... though I have no idea who the right fourth guy is.
    They don't have that 4th guy.
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    #7
    Blake Leeper with a running start...
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    #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    SydMac isn't likely to break 52.5 this season. Possible, but not likely.
    Since she ran 52.75 last year as an 18yo, how is not a natural progression to improve half a second at 19yo? She improved over a second from 17 to 18. And she's a professional now.
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    #9
    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    They don't have that 4th guy.
    The US has 7 of the fastest 10 400 guys in the world this year. I’m curious why you think one of the remaining four could not step up.
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    #10
    When the USA ran 2:54.29 at Stuttgart, they had men with PRs of 44.28 (Valmon), 43.50 (Watts), 43.29 (Reynolds) and 43.65 (Johnson). Funny that MJ was only the third-fastest man on that quartet!

    They won by a country mile. The only one who ran markedly better than his open PR was MJ with a 42.94 anchor.

    Soooooo.... you now have Kerley (43.64), Norman (43.45), Benjamin (44.31), Strother (44.29) anddddddddddd... they're at 2:55.7 with all =PRs in a single race. Where is that 1.4 going to come from?

    I guess if Strother leads off with a 44.29, Kerley goes 43.0, Norman 43.0 and Benjamin 43.9, all by themselves, it could happen.

    Not gonna put any money on that myself.
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