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Thread: WC records

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    #21
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    For the speed and power events I've no doubt the conditions will be nice and warm in impressive facilities but it's that and the timing of the season that I think is throws things up. Yes everyone has known about this and made adjustments but have they worked? If this was August I would feel different.
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    #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedster View Post
    For the speed and power events I've no doubt the conditions will be nice and warm in impressive facilities but it's that and the timing of the season that I think is throws things up. Yes everyone has known about this and made adjustments but have they worked? If this was August I would feel different.
    There will definitely be spectacular flame-outs of some of the favorites, and some equally spectacular performances by heretofore not-ready-for-primetime-players, because of the venue and timing, but then again, that's the case for every global championship.
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    #23
    There is zero chance that the men's 5000 goes that fast. That record was set in a field featuring the greatest miler, the greatest 5000/10000 runner, and the greatest marathon runner/overall distance runner born in the last half century. Also, no one in the field has a season best that is as good or better than record. Finally, with the exception of the 2016 olympics--which was still ten seconds slower--the last several global finals in the 5000 have been bunched up, tactical affairs and I don't see anyone in the field with the stones to keep it honest.
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    #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by JumboElliott View Post
    There is zero chance that the men's 5000 goes that fast.
    Given that the Ethiopians are the medal faves, and they trust their kicks against this field, I'd say you're right. It will be close to 13:00, but that's with a 55s (or better) last lap.
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    #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    Given that the Ethiopians are the medal faves, and they trust their kicks against this field, I'd say you're right. It will be close to 13:00, but that's with a 55s (or better) last lap.
    Cheptegei was the guy who would have made that race, as he did successfully in the DL final, but he's only in the 10,000. Kejelcha, too, might have pushed in the middle laps, but he wasn't selected for the 5, because they only consider SB times. He has much more experience than Bekele (Haile) and won 2 DL races.

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    Alan Shank
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    #26
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    Between them, Stahl (3) and Dacres have 4 2019 throws better than the Alekna's record, and Stahl has six other meets over 69, but it still seems like p < .5.

    One thing for sure, Qu Yunxia's record is safe! >:-)

    The W 10,000 (30:04.18) could go if Ayana is in top shape (unlikely); she ran 30:16 in London after a ridiculously slow early pace (3:30, 3:18, 3:10 for the first 3 kilos).

    Hassan is clearly able to run much faster than her 31:18 at Stanford in May, but how much faster? I recently found (on Twitter) a statistical study that re-examined relative velocities across distances from 5000 thru the marathon, by Stephen Seiler Phd. (@stephenseiler) and John Peters. According to their figures, Hassan's 14:22 correlates to 10,000 in 29:46.31, and her 65:15 half marathon correlates to 29:37.44. The IAAF scoring tables equate 14:22 to 30:10 and 66:17, and 65:15 to 14:09.25 and 29:42.79.

    It's seem reasonable to assume that Hassan is capable of something well under 30 minutes, as is Obiri, but neither is likely to do it without Ayana showing them the way. I'd love to see them tangle with a fully-fit Ayana! Of course, we don't know yet just how effective the stadium cooling is going to be.
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    Alan Shank
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    #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    Given that the Ethiopians are the medal faves, and they trust their kicks against this field, I'd say you're right. It will be close to 13:00, but that's with a 55s (or better) last lap.
    I think they would pretty certainly have to be faster than the CR at 4000, as the last 1000 was run in 2:24, and the last 800 in 1:53 (Kipchoge might have been slightly faster).
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    #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by JumboElliott View Post
    I think they would pretty certainly have to be faster than the CR at 4000, as the last 1000 was run in 2:24, and the last 800 in 1:53 (Kipchoge might have been slightly faster).
    That was a weird race, because Bekele started out at near-WR pace (6:09+ at six laps), then gave up on that strategy and slowed to 64-65 laps for the next 4. El Guerrouj wound it up with 900 to go. This was Bekele's first Worlds on the track, and he had already won the 10,000 with a 12:57 last 5K. He tried doubling again in 2004, again lost the 5, then didn't try doubling again until 2008 and 2009, when he won both. El Guerrouj successfully doubled in Athens the next year.

    This year is different, because the 5 comes before both the 15 and 10, so everybody's fresh, but I don't see anyone likely to push hard early.

    BTW, Jakob and Filip are "entered" in the 5 and 15, and Henrik is in the 5. Team tactics? >:-)
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    Alan Shank
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