Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    There was probably need to adjust technique after the change, but also, the equipment itself evolved with time, as the producers learned how to make javelins that flew farther while conforming to the new specs. That makes it hard to really evaluate the impact of the change.
    One way to account for the transition period for design/training/coaching is to simply exclude it from the analysis so you are looking at mature event years only for both old and new spec. Of course, this will reduce the already limited data set even further.

    There is also the collapse of the eastern block and the introduction of OOC drug testing shortly after to consider. You would need to try and calculate what the new normal would be like without those in order to isolate the effect of change of specification.
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    #12
    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    There was probably need to adjust technique after the change, but also, the equipment itself evolved with time, as the producers learned how to make javelins that flew farther while conforming to the new specs. That makes it hard to really evaluate the impact of the change.
    But there is no avoiding the fact that when they moved the center of gravity on the javelin
    6cm forward it did cause the Javelin to rotate forward earlier and force the tip down, thus reducing the distance. Yes, they did try to make adjustments at first and Seppo Raty got the WR up to 96.96. But his and Backley's javelins were declared illegal after 1991. Thus the WR went to Backley at 91.46 in 1992.
    The Javelin is a somewhat unstable event but less so after the change in design in 1986.

    Personally I think Hohn could have thrown in the high 90's with the new specs and I also believe Zelezny could have thrown 105 with the old specs!!
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    #13
    Incidentally, IAAF's all-time top lists seem to be botched in this respect. Ršty's 96.96 is not there but Kimmo Kinnunen's 90.82 is, even though both were made with the rough-tail javelin that was declared illegal afterwards.

    https://www.iaaf.org/records/all-tim...Day=2019-08-24
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    #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Per Andersen View Post
    Personally I think Hohn could have thrown in the high 90's with the new specs and I also believe Zelezny could have thrown 105 with the old specs!!
    I went back to the new list and found all throwers with old and new distances. This only added a few more throwers than Petranoff but here's the table anyway:

    Athlete Old New Loss
    Tom Petranoff 99.72 89.16 10.56
    Viktor Yevsyukov 93.70 85.16 8.54
    Einar VilhjŠlmsson 92.42 86.80 5.62
    Dag Wennlund 92.20 85.02 7.18
    Klaus Tafelmeier 91.44 86.64 4.80
    Tapio Korjus 89.30 86.50 2.80

    While the linear relationship in the chart might look seductive, it is based on a small sample, so doesn't take into account whether the loss is greater due to aging or reduced due to career developement.
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    #15
    Here's the Old (503 throws) v New (345) by each metre in a chart.

    I've included both the raw numbers as a percentage of the total to account for the disparity in overall numbers.

    You might be surprised at the relativities in the 88m range.
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    #16
    A huge amount of date is at http://www.kolumbus.fi/asko.koski/athletics/ and Javelin World
    at https://chevillat.pagesperso-orange....ex_english.htm. There was an article refered to on Decathlon2000 site, which not only referenced the changes in the 1984 tables but also gave details of the impact of the new model javelin. I seem to remember a Hungarian connection to one of the IAAf panel members. If i find the article i will post.
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    #17
    Quote Originally Posted by dadme View Post
    A huge amount of date is at http://www.kolumbus.fi/asko.koski/athletics/ and Javelin World
    at https://chevillat.pagesperso-orange....ex_english.htm. There was an article refered to on Decathlon2000 site, which not only referenced the changes in the 1984 tables but also gave details of the impact of the new model javelin. I seem to remember a Hungarian connection to one of the IAAf panel members. If i find the article i will post.
    Thanks, dadme. I had never seen either of the sites you linked.

    It's just a shame that both sites linked seem to be 10 years out of date but still, I now have 39,800 throws to play with - 23,409 old/16,391 new.

    Well, that's if I can accurately rehabilitate the data from the presentation formatting. Just don't hold your breath waiting!
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    #18
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    Here's a graph showing the trend in men's world lists in the 10 years before and 10 years after the change:

    oszczep.jpg

    The figures are as follows:
    no. 10 no. 50 no. 100
    1976 87.76 82.04 78.40
    1977 87.46 81.68 79.14
    1978 88.32 82.60 79.78
    1979 89.74 82.42 79.56
    1980 89.46 84.32 80.68
    1981 89.48 83.66 80.24
    1982 88.40 84.00 80.48
    1983 90.58 84.56 81.14
    1984 90.94 84.60 81.52
    1985 91.56 84.70 81.40
    1986 81.86 77.38 75.30
    1987 83.24 79.04 76.68
    1988 82.70 79.58 76.48
    1989 83.90 79.56 76.72
    1990 84.80 79.76 76.82
    1991 86.32 80.18 77.14
    1992 85.74 79.20 76.40
    1993 85.10 78.96 75.80
    1994 85.22 78.84 75.52
    1995 85.60 78.70 76.26
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #19
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    One thing worth bearing in mind when looking at the figures for 1986 is that not all competitions worldwide switched to the new javelin straight away. As far as I can recall, here in the UK, the only meets that year that used the new spear were international events and UK national champs. Every other meet still used the old implement. I spectated at a meet in the top division of the British League (an inter-club competition) that year where a guy called Darryl Brand set a league record of 86m something. I think his best with the new jav was about 77m. This would affect the lower reaches of world rankings.
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    #20
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    That's probably one of the reasons there's significant progress in the lists from 1986 to 1987. But the progress, at least at the top level, continued through the late 80s/ early 90s, when all other throwing events went though a slump. Also, 1991 is a bit of an aberration due to popularity of rough-tail javelins, which were subsequently banned.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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