Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I find the w4x1 prediction pretty bizarre. Germany 1st, Jamaica only 3rd?

    Also, no Bondarenko in the top 10? He might not be having a great season, but he had some jumps showing he still has a lot of upside.

    And for the Polish angle: Kopron only 9th, after her showing in the Skolimowska Memorial? No Lewandowski in the top 10?
    Yeah, and Kszczot not to make the final?? Underestimate him at your peril!
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    #52
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    [QUOTE= Lewandowski is going to do that event. .[/QUOTE]

    Wow straight from a congressional hearing to WC's? Hope he is as aggressive
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    #53
    How did Daisy Chepkemei make it on that list, she wasn't selected. Fancy Cherono is the 4th Kenyan.
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    #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by norunner View Post
    Hey, don't spoil it! I don't believe they're going to win either, but if they can repeat that 41.67 it will at least take some doing to beat them.
    I'm not sure about this year's US squad, but Jamaica with SAFP and ET should be able to beat that.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #55
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    Why is Hassan listed only in the 15, while KK is listed in both? Does this mean you are privy Hassan's plans?
    I don't see Gidey as a winner in the 5.
    Price picked to win W HT -- caption says first woman to win any throw -- true for WC, but Carter won Olympic SP gold in '16.
    Edris?
    Ivanyuk's competitive record is pretty spotty to be favored. Bondarenko? He looked good, then disappeared.
    Nedasekau jumped 2.35 on Sep. 9.
    Cheers,
    Alan Shank
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    #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I find the w4x1 prediction pretty bizarre. Germany 1st, Jamaica only 3rd?

    Also, no Bondarenko in the top 10? He might not be having a great season, but he had some jumps showing he still has a lot of upside.

    And for the Polish angle: Kopron only 9th, after her showing in the Skolimowska Memorial? No Lewandowski in the top 10?

    Track and Field News did an outstanding job with their top 10 predictions. IMO, this is a very difficult year to predict. In many events you have Six of One vs Half a Dozen going against each other for the silver or bronze.
    IMO, here are some of the weaknesses in Track & Field News picks:

    1) They gave way too much credit to the German women's 4x100 relay. As someone reminded me last week, the German relay team has a reputation for performing well in the short relay before major events. And then they underachieve in major Championships.

    2) Too much love to the USA female hammer throwers. I would actually be surprised if more than one American medals in that event.

    3) Not enough credit to the Polish hammer throwers. IMO, the bronze medal is between Fiodorow, Kapron, and Tavernier. There is only one American in my top 5. And yes, I am prepared to eat crow if I am wrong.

    4) GBR winning the men's 4x100 relay is a little surprising to me. I can see the British getting a medal in this event. But I don't think it will be Gold. Remember, we won't be in London for the 2019 WC.

    5) All of the walking races don't seem to be thoroughly researched. It appears that best marks were used in order to hurry up and get the walks over with.
    Last edited by TWalsh; 09-21-2019 at 07:52 PM.
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    #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by TWalsh View Post
    5) All of the walking races don't seem to be thoroughly researched. It appears that best marks were used in order to hurry up and get the walks over with.
    Indeed. You KNOW things are bad when even I can pick Liu as a medal favorite.
    These picks make me super-nervous about the Dutch game, but, then again, I do usually finish ahead of the T&FN picks, even accounting for last-second news, which I assume T&FN will incorporate into this chart, when it breaks this week . . . and there WILL be 'interesting' news this week, if only to account for the Hassan/Klosterhalfen decisions, and the injury status of Muir, Samba, Barshim, stc., and even those late tweaks by Kendricks and Gatlin.
    Last edited by Atticus; 09-21-2019 at 08:54 PM.
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    #58
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    Yeah, the women's hammer picks are bizarre.

    T&FN's walking picks have always been hit-and-miss. There's really weird stuff occasionally, like Kanaykin to win the 50 in Osaka (I think my first post ever in this forum was pointing out the weirdness of that pick). But there's also saner stuff, and even good picks that aren't obvious if you just look at times, like Arevalo two years ago.

    Yamanishi has no big meet experience, and historically we see Japanese 20K walkers come into big meets with good times and walk away without anything to show for it. That said, I do like Yamanishi's chances better; he's had good results outside Japan, and the "no big meet experience" cuts both ways because it also implies no history of underperforming at big meets. Plus, with Tokyo approaching, not a surprise to see a new generation of Japanese stars emerging.

    Karlström in #3, though? Not buying that.
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    #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by TWalsh View Post
    2) Too much love to the USA female hammer throwers. I would actually be surprised if more than one American medals in that event.

    3) Not enough credit to the Polish hammer throwers. IMO, the bronze medal is between Fiodorow, Kapron, and Tavernier. There is only one American in my top 5. And yes, I am prepared to eat crow if I am wrong.
    That's exactly the way I'm looking at wHT. My pick would probably be Zhang-Price-Fiodorow.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    My pick would probably be Zhang-Price-Fiodorow.
    I'll go Z-P-Kopron, just to cover our Polish bases!
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