Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #31
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    Cool!
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    #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by gh View Post
    from an AP story

    <<This past Aug. 2 — exactly one year before the scheduled date of the women's Olympic marathon — the temperature climbed to 94 degrees (34 Celsius) in Sapporo, just 1 degree cooler than it was in Tokyo on that same day.>>
    It is an anecdote, so does not really mean much. The thing to do is to take similar days, say any day between July 22 and August 12 over a number of years, since they are essentially from the same 'distribution' (climate means have not changed much in 15 years in terms of the type of measurement here because a 0.1C change is not germane to this topic), so you have about 300 days (although they are not fully dependent).

    I did a similar analysis on the Madison WI data for the period around the dates of the NCAA XC Championship. I used a narrower window because the trend across days in later November is much greater than for Japan in mid-summer. Then you not only want to look at the mean, but the distribution also (i.e., what is the likelihood of getting 'bad' weather).

    And for heat, you want to look at more than the high for the day; in fact you want to look at the temperatures in the times that the races will be run. I would guess that even a hot day in Sapporo might have hours that were better than for similar temperatures in Tokyo. And, of course, you want to look at the dew point in the days that are in the upper portions of the distribution. Using the Heat Index is probably better than using Temperature. Also, the amount of solar radiation also matters.

    If I were involved in the 2020 marathon decision I sure as hell would have used as much information as possible, and explored weaknesses in using even Heat Index values as the metric. Then, for each set of groups of days in the distribution I would go look at major distance races and see which ones fit in to each 'box' and see what the effects seem to be. They are talking about many millions of dollars in terms of the impact of choices here, spending $10,000-$50,000 on detailed analysis rather than some head honcho's opinion would be well worthwhile.
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    #33
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    Weather.com has handy-dandy daily historical info for Tokyo and Sapporo, both year-specific and historical average.

    Avg high-low for Tokyo for first week of August is 87/75F.

    For Sapporo it's 79/65F.

    Ten degrees average cooler overnight is significant.

    For Aug 2 last year, during heat wave and the date selected in the apnews story, weather.com reports 96/82 for Tokyo and 91/74 for Sapporo.
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    #34
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    The substantially lower daily low indicates that the dew point is a fair bit lower. I am pretty sure that the ocean temperature near Sapporo is lower than next to Tokyo. Also, Tokyo is on the east coast and Sapporo on the west coast and the general northern hemisphere circulation brings flow from the west, more often giving Sapporo some more moderate summer weather - plus Tokyo is approximately the latitude of LA, Sapporo that of Madison.
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    #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by gh View Post
    from an AP story

    <<This past Aug. 2 exactly one year before the scheduled date of the women's Olympic marathon the temperature climbed to 94 degrees (34 Celsius) in Sapporo, just 1 degree cooler than it was in Tokyo on that same day.>>
    It is because this is unusual that these things get noted. It's like here in the UK when we get an unusually hot spell of weather and it is reported that London or some other UK city is currently warmer than somewhere like Athens or Seville. The opposite also happens sometimes when we get cold weather and mention is made of it being colder in London than Moscow.
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    #36
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    The TFN homepage has a link to some comments made by the Canadian walker Kyle Dunfee. He makes a valid point that moving the marathon and walks has deprived the Tokyo public who have, by and large, paid for the Games of a number of events that they could actually watch for free.
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    #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    This position is so insular to a subset of athletics and absent from dozens of other sports, thus leading to a flawed conclusion. How much of track and field will be affected. The marathon and distance races, the sprinters will like the weather.
    And with the IAAF move to drop the 5000 and 10,000 from the DL, perhaps (sadly) someday only the marathon and walks will be a concern in the Olympics.
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    #38
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    -This is the 2020Tokyo Olympics. The marathon should be run in Tokyo.
    Just my opinion.
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    #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Trickstat View Post
    The TFN homepage has a link to some comments made by the Canadian walker Kyle Dunfee. He makes a valid point that moving the marathon and walks has deprived the Tokyo public who have, by and large, paid for the Games of a number of events that they could actually watch for free.
    That is a really valid point.
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    #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrJay View Post
    And with the IAAF move to drop the 5000 and 10,000 from the DL, perhaps (sadly) someday only the marathon and walks will be a concern in the Olympics.
    10,000 was never part of the DL
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