Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Who said anything was up with her? LU was talking about Zhang Wenxiu, the multiple WC and OG medalist, who's now retired, I believe.
    aha!

    I assumed the reference was to the list cited in the OP, and Zhang was a typo for first name of Zheng.
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    #12
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    Zheng should be the Doha fave, but I do like the chance of at least 1 Ami medalling and at at least one more in the to 5 or so.

    If I had to guess (as dispassionately as I can) the top 7 right now, I'd say

    1. Zheng
    2. Price
    3-5. Berry/Malyshik/Tavernier
    6-7. Anderson/Fiodorow

    Wouldn't THAT be special, if all 3 Amis were Top 8 (all 6 throws)?!
    Last edited by Atticus; 08-08-2019 at 05:56 PM.
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    #13
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    I don't see Malyshik as a serious medal threat. The only long throws she had this year came way back in March and April. Joanna Fiodorow would be a more likely candidate.
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    #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Joanna Fiodorow would be a more likely candidate.
    Here's the top 8 performers who will be there. I consider all eligible for a medal.

    1 78.24 DeAnna PRICE USA
    2 76.75 Brooke ANDERSEN USA
    3 76.46 Gwen BERRY USA
    4 76.26 Zheng WANG CHN
    5 74.95 Hanna MALYSHIK BLR
    6 74.84 Alexandra TAVERNIER FRA
    7 74.71 Joanna FIODOROW POL
    8 74.70 Zalina PETRIVSKAYA MDA

    Malyshik may just have gone back into training after assessing her early form.
    Last edited by Atticus; 08-08-2019 at 07:25 PM.
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    #15
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    I would consider Malyshik the least likely of the 8 to challenge for a medal. OTOH, I like Tavernier's chances. She's got a good record in majors and has been throwing consistently well this season.
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    #16
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    I would also pick Tavernier from the 74 group, though she did bomb in the final last time.

    Malyshik is very inconsistent. I don't think she's a favorite to medal but I wouldn't count her out.

    Powell picked Kopron to medal last time; if he's picking Fiodorow this year we should probably listen

    Andersen... who knows? But my intuition is that she should at least be in the same tier as Berry.
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    #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by LopenUupunut View Post
    Powell picked Kopron to medal last time; if he's picking Fiodorow this year we should probably listen
    It depends, though. Fiodorow looked really good for much of the season and she's a strong championship performer, but she had some health problems lately (not sure of what sort) and her last competition in Władysławowo wasn't great. But if she recovers, she's certainly a contender. I would put her behind Tavernier on my medal favorite list at this point, but not by that much.

    Re Kopron: too bad she's disappointed since then. In 2017 I strongly believed she was about to become a solid no. 2 in the world behind Włodarczyk, but she's really regressed since then. She's still just 24 and I'm hoping she will get back on track at some point, but this year she just doesn't look like a contender.
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    #18
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    And BTW, if I had to pick the podium right now, I would go with Wang-Price-Tavernier.
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    #19
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    I think there's a lot of parallels to be drawn between Andersen's situation this year, and Stephanie Brown Trafton in '08.

    Trafton had a good solid season in '08 - she was high on the world lists (like Andersen), and was pretty consistent without many bad meets (like Andersen). But not much was expected of her at the Olympics, partly because she was only 3rd at the US Trials (like Andersen) and because Americans had no tradition of medalling in the wDT, but did have a tradition of showing up at big meets with promising marks and then being unable to back them up.

    And the expectations for Trafton seemed to be even lower in the US than outside the US, which is unusual, usually Americans have higher expectations for US athletes than non-Americans do; but it was likely because Americans saw her as #3 in her own country behind two better-established local throwers, while non-Americans just looked at marks. And 2008 was an opportunity year; the old stars were going out, the new stars weren't there yet, the top two from 2007 (Dietzsch and Pishchalnikova) were missing.

    There are also differences, of course. Trafton was older (almost 29), and the American women's usual big-meet underperformance in the wDT had a readily apparent explanation ("wind-tunnel marks, of course they can't back them up") that isn't applicable in the HT. Trafton, unlike Andersen, did have some big meet experience, though it was one meet four years earlier. And Andersen might not win
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    #20
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    There is no absolute favorite this year, and, while Andersen winning would definitely be a big upset, I think I would be less shocked by it than I was by Trafton's gold
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