Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #61
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    I think steeplechase is more likely 0-1 than 1-2. That event peaked for the United States in 2016 and 2017...men and women. It was inevitable other countries would start to take it more seriously and field better athletes.

    Coburn has a strategic dilemma. She knows she has to take it out quick to pose any thread to Chepkoech. But doing that risks losing a medal period. Coburn's best chance is if turns into a more reluctant race minus the rabblts and given the heat. She needs that first kilometer to be above 3:00 or right there.

    Frerichs has disappointed me with how seldom she has raced since 2017. I thought she needed to establish herself as a regular contender and from the front end. I think she has placed far too much stock in that 2017 result, and confidence it can unfold that way again, without recognizing how incredibly fortunate it was.
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    #62
    One Polish win at an irrelevant meeting out of season, and a Jamaican win in one World Championships, is not evidence they lift their game!

    And re JAM, I said 'don't quite', which is true. There have been many seasons when on paper JAM should have pushed the US much more than they did. It was always the same with RUS. But the US continued to beat them both, and often comfortably.
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    #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    Coburn has a strategic dilemma. She knows she has to take it out quick to pose any thread to Chepkoech.
    Chepkoech is clearly the fastest in the world, both this year and career-wise, so how would a fast pace give anyone a better chance of beating her?
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    One Polish win at an irrelevant meeting out of season, and a Jamaican win in one World Championships, is not evidence they lift their game!

    And re JAM, I said 'don't quite', which is true. There have been many seasons when on paper JAM should have pushed the US much more than they did. It was always the same with RUS. But the US continued to beat them both, and often comfortably.
    The only meeting on the planet, where you could directly qualify for Doha, is irrelevant? By that logic the US trials were irrelevant.
    No American woman under 50s this year for the first time since 2003. This weakness gives other countries a better chance than usual.
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    #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Awsi Dooger View Post
    She knows she has to take it out quick to pose any thread to Chepkoech.
    She knows she's not a threat to Chepkoech. Her strategy will be to position herself for a chance of a silver or bronze medal.
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    #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    She knows she's not a threat to Chepkoech. Her strategy will be to position herself for a chance of a silver or bronze medal.
    She 'should' (as if I had any advice for her!) let Chep go, hope she goes out at WR pace and boinks.
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    #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Chepkoech is clearly the fastest in the world, both this year and career-wise, so how would a fast pace give anyone a better chance of beating her?
    But what if Chepkoech goes out crazy fast and kind of dies a bit like she did in the last meet? If Coburn were to run even 3:00 kilos and Chepkoech runs 2:51-3:0x-3:0x, maybe Coburn can outkick her.
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    #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by steveu View Post
    But what if Chepkoech goes out crazy fast and kind of dies a bit like she did in the last meet? If Coburn were to run even 3:00 kilos and Chepkoech runs 2:51-3:0x-3:0x, maybe Coburn can outkick her.
    That is a (distant) possibility, but the way I understood Awsi Dooger's post was that Coburn is supposed to take the lead and push the pace. That's not going to work as a tactic to beat Chepkoech.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    That is a (distant) possibility, but the way I understood Awsi Dooger's post was that Coburn is supposed to take the lead and push the pace. That's not going to work as a tactic to beat Chepkoech.
    Assume Chepkoech will not go out in a crazy pace but might push it in the latter portion of the race to shake anyone she may be concerned with. Coburn and Frerichs (not sure why she's not in the conversation for Americans) have to do what they did in 2017 and hang tough (easier said than done).
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    #70
    100- maybe just one finalist
    200- very doubtful
    400 - couple of finalists no medals
    800 - Wilson gold and Rogers maybe bronze
    1500 - Hullihan will medal if pace is over 4 mins
    ST - Coburn might finish 3rd but didn’t look good in last race
    5k - very unlikely
    10k - maybe 6th
    Marathon and walks - NOT
    100H - Harrison and Ali 2-3
    400H - McLaughlin and Muhammad 1-2
    4x1 - barely 3rd
    4x4 - 1st or 2nd
    HJ - Cunningham unlikely
    LJ - Reese second or third
    TJ - Orji could be 3rd but I think 5th more likely
    PV - Nageotte might have a better chance than Morris
    SP - Ealey and Ewen could easily medal in very weak event
    DT - one finalist
    HT - price should medal but hasn’t competed in a while
    JT - Winger could medal if she replicates her recent performances
    Hept - 5th and 6th
    Likely 3 G 4 S 5 B
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