Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    spinoff discussion on wet tracks and air conditions split off into its own thread
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    Hallelujah!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    SM is no more a 400m runner than DM.
    What facts are this assertion based on?
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    Quote Originally Posted by trackCanuck View Post
    I'd be surprised if 1.6 was the actual differential for Muhammad.
    Is anybody that efficient over the hurdles? I always assumed the hurdles added at least 2.5s to the flat 400 time of the best hurdlers.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    I always assumed
    My 25 years of coaching empirical evidence suggests 1.5s is the bottom threshold for a fit, efficient hurdler.
    I had to run plenty of 4x4s and my flat 400 speed was only 1.8s faster than my hurdles time (adjusting for running start, ~.7s)
    What do you think the differential is for ten 33" (3" higher) hurdles in the 100H? i'm guessing 1.2s for K Harrison. You would then argue that it's not just about the hurdle clearance time, it's the 'exhaustion' factor for a 400m race over hurdles. As you saw in DM's race, she was flying at the end, so that is not the barrier (pun!) one might assume.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    Is anybody that efficient over the hurdles? I always assumed the hurdles added at least 2.5s to the flat 400 time of the best hurdlers.
    I looked at the top 15 men and women ever and there's no clear pattern, because they didn't devote equal time and effort to doing both events. Pechonkina has a flat personal best slower than her now former world record. For 2000 Olympic champ Privalova it's 3.13 seconds and for another Olympic champ Gunnell it's just so hard to know what she really could have done over a flat 400 (difference 1.29). Her flat races were few and not in many seasons. In 1990 her differential was 2.52 seconds and after that lots of hurdles races and a few years with 400 times listed.

    I suppose the difference for men and women should be roughly the same.
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    Athletes like Privolova and Pechonkina don't tell you much since they have so few data points in the 400 hurdles and open 400, respectively. Instead, I would look at athletes like Angelo Taylor and Ashley Spencer, since they've both devoted considerable time to their secondary events during their careers. Taylor has a differential of 3.20s and Spencer 2.83s.
    Last edited by jazzcyclist; 08-14-2019 at 03:56 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    Athletes like Privolova and Pechonkina don't tell you much since they have so few data points in the 400 hurdles and open 400, respectively. Instead, I would look at athletes like Angelo Taylor and Ashley Spencer, since they've both devoted considerable time to their secondary events during their careers. Taylor has a differential of 3.20s and Spencer 2.83s.
    Maybe throw in Kerron Clement, who has a 2.63 average difference for his top 10 400H vs. 400
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    Quote Originally Posted by trackCanuck View Post
    I looked at the top 15 men and women ever and there's no clear pattern, because they didn't devote equal time and effort to doing both events. Pechonkina has a flat personal best slower than her now former world record. For 2000 Olympic champ Privalova it's 3.13 seconds and for another Olympic champ Gunnell it's just so hard to know what she really could have done over a flat 400 (difference 1.29). Her flat races were few and not in many seasons. In 1990 her differential was 2.52 seconds and after that lots of hurdles races and a few years with 400 times listed.

    I suppose the difference for men and women should be roughly the same.
    I remember an interview with Gunnell where she said she enjoyed 4x400s (best split sub 50) and indoor 400s (European Champ) but did not enjoy flat outdoor 400s. She was a sub 13 100 hurdler.
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    Another thing to look at is 4x400 splits from championships meets by athletes who also ran the 400 hurdles in the same meet. For example, what was Sydney McLaughlin's split in last year's SEC Outdoor Championships after she ran 52.75 earlier in the day?
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