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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    Bad comparison re Seyni. Neither SAFP nor Bolt were challenging the world's best with less than 3 years of serious training. Seyni will be running sub-48 within the next 2 years unless something unmentionable happens.
    It will happen no later than next year, and Niger will have the odd distinction of having a woman run faster than their men's national record. She could be the world record holder with less than 4 years of serious training and run faster than her men's national record. Where's the party?
    Last edited by trackCanuck; 07-22-2019 at 02:41 PM.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Speedster View Post
    I still think a fresh Prandini or Thomas repping the USA in the 200m are unlikely to be a match to the other athletes mentioned. Hard to gauge how much they might peak given their okish seasons so far.
    On a (REALLY) good day someone like Jamille Samuel can beat Thomas or Prandini.
     

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    Such a great meet. I was worried that it would fall a bit flat with the absence of most American athletes, but I was totally wrong. In fact, the two American athletes I was most looking forward to seeing (Taylor and Reese) were both beaten, but they've already got their tickets to Doha.

    Fantastic performances from Williams, Warholm, SAFP (in both the 100m and relay), Obiri and Mihambo to name a few. It seems that Stahl is beating Dacres regularly now, but they're still a clear 1-2.

    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    That's surprising. Where did you hear that? Did she say it in an interview today?
    Yeah she said it in this post-race interview.

    I'm pretty (pleasantly) surprised too since her season seemed geared towards focusing solely on the 100m, like it was in 2015. She's barely competed in the 200m this year. I wonder if she'll run it anywhere other than the Pan Am Champs prior to Doha.

    Hopefully we hear soon about whether or not Thompson will be doubling - if she doesn't, I wonder which event she'll focus on. I maintain that the 200m is her best chance for gold but she prefers the 100m, and that's what they chose in 2017..
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    Bolt went from a time outside the top 900 times with 10.03 in 2007 to 9.69, the fastest ever, in 2008.

    Fraser-Pryce went from 11.74 in 2006, to 11.21 in 2007 and 10.78 in 2008. If you remove Jone's doped runs & Lalova-Collio's suspect start run, it took SAFP up to 6th on the All-Time list, the then 9th fastest time ever run over 100m. That from a time that was outside the top 1000 runs, closer to 2000.
    This is very misleading. Looking at the official IAAF page, Bolt was primarily a 200/400m sprinter prior to 2008 and posted elite times. In fact, that 10.03 (+0.9) is the only official 100m time I can see from 2007, and before that there's nothing. His 19.75 (+0.2) SB from that same year suggests that he was capable of faster over 100m.

    SAFP ran 11.57 (+0.9) all the way back in 2003. She regressed for a few years time-wise, whether due to injury/lack of motivation/both/something. The 11.74 in 2006 was not the extent of her capabilities that year, and the 11.21 in 2007 probably wasn't either.

    But I don't agree with casting aspersions on athletes based on progression alone as there are so many factors that aren't taken into account when looking solely at times. To improve your 400m PB by over a second in a single race is pretty insane, but I gave Seyni the benefit of the doubt for now.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paced View Post
    This is very misleading. Looking at the official IAAF page, Bolt was primarily a 200/400m sprinter prior to 2008 and posted elite times. In fact, that 10.03 (+0.9) is the only official 100m time I can see from 2007, and before that there's nothing. His 19.75 (+0.2) SB from that same year suggests that he was capable of faster over 100m.

    SAFP ran 11.57 (+0.9) all the way back in 2003. She regressed for a few years time-wise, whether due to injury/lack of motivation/both/something. The 11.74 in 2006 was not the extent of her capabilities that year, and the 11.21 in 2007 probably wasn't either.

    But I don't agree with casting aspersions on athletes based on progression alone as there are so many factors that aren't taken into account when looking solely at times. To improve your 400m PB by over a second in a single race is pretty insane, but I gave Seyni the benefit of the doubt for now.
    I dont think the argument that Bolt went from an elite 200/400 Junior into the WR holder over 100m in one season is any less remarkable, considering how many men have run and specialized in the 100m.
    On SAFP, I forgot that earlier time, but her form thereafter was poorer, until, bam, she hit the big scene in 2008.

    But there are lots of other examples, across different events. Ohuruogu, went from 54.21 to 50.50 in one season; Duplantis went from 5.51 to 5.90 in one season; Ashford from 22.62 to 21.81 in one season; Kluft from 6542 to 7001 in one season, VBH from outside 23/53 to 21.81/48.83 in one season, JJK 6.77 to 7.24 in one season etc. etc. etc. These are all amazing improvements, some more remarkable than others. But whichever example we use, there is always a reason, always an explanation, and in some cases always an excuse.

    Athletes can do remarkable things in one season. For now, Seyni is no different, and prejudices caused by other athletes in other events shouldn't taint her, unless proven.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paced View Post
    This is very misleading. Looking at the official IAAF page, Bolt was primarily a 200/400m sprinter prior to 2008 and posted elite times.
    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    I dont think the argument that Bolt went from an elite 200/400 Junior into the WR holder over 100m in one season is any less remarkable, considering how many men have run and specialized in the 100m.
    Of course it's misleading and Wiederganger has shirked the obvious task, which is to look at Bolt's improvement over 200 meters in the same time frame. In 4 seasons prior to 2008 Bolt went from 19.93 to 19.75. He then drops his 100 in one year from 10.03 to 9.69 and his 200 improves to 19.30. It is entirely reasonable to conclude that he was capable of nothing worse than 9.80 prior to 2008, had he been running the event year in and out. For the arithmetically challenged, 19.75-19.30 = 0.45 and half of that is 0.225. 10.03 - 0.23 = 9.80. Anyone who has watched track for decades and wishes to argue with that is not worth having a conversation with.

    Comparing Bolt's 100 meter improvement of 0.34 over 100 meters in one season to a 3 seconds improvement over 400 meters in 2 years by someone with next to zero history of involvement in the sport is laughable.
    Last edited by trackCanuck; 07-22-2019 at 06:03 PM.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    .....

    Athletes can do remarkable things in one season. For now, Seyni is no different, and prejudices caused by other athletes in other events shouldn't taint her, unless proven.
    let's steer clear of this kind of innuendo, please.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    Bolt went from a time outside the top 900 times with 10.03 in 2007 to 9.69, the fastest ever, in 2008.
    Yes but he was 19.9 at age 16 before, which is basically a sub-10 quality and the lack of fast 100 marks is mainly because he had almost no races. Just working on getting a start is worth almost 0.10, and what was the wind on that 10.03 (-1.5 different than +1.5 about 0.16)?
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    Yes but he was 19.9 at age 16 before, which is basically a sub-10 quality and the lack of fast 100 marks is mainly because he had almost no races. Just working on getting a start is worth almost 0.10, and what was the wind on that 10.03 (-1.5 different than +1.5 about 0.16)?
    Right and if a guy who's been running 200s at a consistently high level for 5 years takes up the 100 and improves in one year by 0.34, and his 200 improvement is just marginally more than that, (0.45) this is no enigmatic out of the blue development. If he'd improved his 200 by 0.68 in the same year, that would be another story (because he'd been improving by hundredths in the previous 5 seasons) Taken together, it lines up with the fact that he hadn't been running the 100 (save for one season in 2007) prior to that year.

    2007 19.75 +0.2 Kingston (JAM) 24 JUN 2007
    2006 19.88 +0.4 Lausanne (SUI) 11 JUL 2006
    2005 19.99 +1.8 London (GBR) 22 JUL 2005
    2004 19.93 +1.4 Hamilton (BER) 11 APR 2004
    2003 20.13 0.0 Bridgetown (BAR) 20 JUL 2003

    from https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/jamaica/usain-bolt-184599
    Last edited by trackCanuck; 07-22-2019 at 11:16 PM.
     

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    Not the highest standard event at this competition but, in the M400, Jonathan Jones set his third Barbadian record this year with his 44.63 for second place.

    Prior to Jones' emergence this year, the NR was 45.32 set by 24 year old Elvis Forde in the semi-finals of the LA Olympics.

    Jones, whose best before this year was 46.05 in the heats of the U-20WC in Tampere last year, first trimmed Forde's record with a 45.02 in the NCAA West Prelims in Sacramento in May.

    He lowered it further, becoming the first Barbadian under 45s, with his NCAA champs 4th place 44.64.

    The only other Barbadian under 45.50 is Obadele Thompson with 45.38 in his third string event.

    Elvis Forde is now a coach at Temple University and managed to run a 49.51 in 2004 at age 44.

    edit to add women's:

    There are strong parallel's on the women's side, where Barbados is also having a resurgence this year.

    Sada Williams became the third ever Barbadian under 52 seconds and she now has three of the top five times.

    However her best of 51.48 is still shy of the 41-year-old record of 51.04, set by Lorna Forde in winning the USA championships in 1978.

    That time means Lorna is still the 40th ranked CAC athlete at this distance. However, her time placed her a more impressive third all-time CAC in 1978 behind former WR holder Neufville of Jamaica (51.0h) and Cuban Aurelia Penton (50.56).

    I don't know if Lorna and Elvis are related or not.
    Last edited by El Toro; 07-23-2019 at 08:29 AM.
     

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