Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    As Australia lost an ancient record in the W800, so did Canada in the W1500 with Gabriela Debues-Stafford coming in 2nd with a NR of 4:00.26, trimming 1/100th off the 1985 record of Lyn Williams.

    Prior to 2019, GD-S did not have a single run in the CAN top 10 all-time but now, every one of her 5 races this year is in the top 10. These races average 4:01.02 and each time was better than her previous PB of 4:03.55 from 2017.
     

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    No mention here yet of the fine 37.60 relay by the Brits. Their 100 PRs average 9.97. If the US (Rodgers/Gatlin/Lyles/Coleman), with an average PR of 9.81, could pass as efficiently, they would run 36.96. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out in Doha. The Brits have trouble finding anyone who can be an individual medal contender, but they also have a deep bench backing up the quartet that ran yesterday, with sub-10 men like Gemili and Prescod and other experienced relay guys like HAA.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by berkeley View Post
    No mention here yet of the fine 37.60 relay by the Brits.
    Including the 2019 London DL, the UK has been 26 times under 38.50, with half of those times run since 2007.

    The last 5 years to end of 2018 contains 5 of the 11 years with three or more sub-38.50 runs and all 4 of the years with 5 or more runs under that standard.

    2019 currently stands at 3 runs, so it wouldn't be surprising to see this year match the maximum of 6 runs achieved in 2014, 2016 and 2018.

    Since 2010, the average time has shown a declining trend with 2018 and 2019 (so far) averaging under 38.00.

    This the first time that the UK has had two consecutive years with a sub-38 avg out of the 5 times this has been achieved. It is worth noting that two of those five years (1990,1993) only had a single or dual performance with the other being 2016 with 6 performances.

    I've atttached a chart showing the fastest time along with the mean of those times.
    M4x100-UK.JPG

    edit to add missing text:

    The London 2019 time ranks at =21st place on the all-time list and 2nd on the UK all-time list.

    However, there are only two runs faster than this week's time that have been achieved post the Rio OG. These are the UK's 37.47 NR set in the 2017 WC final and 37.52 by USA in second place behind that NR.
    Last edited by El Toro; 07-24-2019 at 07:24 AM.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by trackCanuck View Post
    Of course it's misleading and Wiederganger has shirked the obvious task

    Anyone who has watched track for decades and wishes to argue with that is not worth having a conversation with.

    Comparing Bolt's 100 meter improvement of 0.34 over 100 meters in one season to a 3 seconds improvement over 400 meters in 2 years by someone with next to zero history of involvement in the sport is laughable.
    Lets look at the women's 400m. And first let us look at the full picture as you say: Seyni ran 50.69 last season, and 49.19 thus far this season, which is an improvement of 1.5 in one year. But she's built up to that time this year with a couple of 51.1's, a 50.9, a 50.5, a 50.2, gradually learning to run the event better....
    She then also had a 51.1 and a couple of 51.2's last year, to back up her 50.69, so again, some good times at much smaller meets (...and slower tracks) and building up to that 50.69.
    A 52.17 from 2017 in a crap track & stadium obviously does not represent her form that year, that would have been a 51 had she the opportunity to run that elsewhere.

    So this is not a 52.17 to a 50.69 to a 49.19. We all know that. But on paper her improvement is remarkable. But.. is it any less remarkable than some other top 400m runners? Look at these other women's improvement on their PBs, the majority from one season to the next*:

    Ohuruogu went from 54.21 to 50.50 for a 3.71 improvement
    Brisco went from 52.08 to 48.83 for a 3.25 improvement
    Kratochvilova went from 52.31 to 49.46 for a 2.85 improvement
    Cheeseborough went from 51.00 to 49.05 for a 1.95 improvement
    Kocembova went from 50.41 to 48.59 for a 1.82 improvement
    Perec went from 50.84 to 49.13 for a 1.71 improvement
    Seyni went from 50.69 to 49.19 for a 1.5 improvement
    Freeman went from 50.04 to 48.63 for a 1.41 improvement
    Davis went from 51.32 to a 49.99 for a 1.33 improvement
    Ogunkuya went from 50.31 to 49.10 for a 1.21 improvement

    *VBH's PB was from 79 where she ran 52.08 but in 1983 she ran jut 53.61 before 48.83 in 1984.

    Do you see anything remarkable in any of these other women's improvement? Or does everyone single one have an explanation & excuse?

    Fred Kerley went 45.10 in 2016 to 43.70 in 2017 (1.4 improvement virtually the same as Seyni) and he shot up to 8th on the all time list, while she is 17th. Just sayin.

    Seyni is a young, raw talent, that thus far has had limited exposure to run in good stadiums against good quality opposition. This season she has, and has gradually been lowering her PB in nearly every race. Her final 100m is gobsmacking, absolutely, and her potential is scary. But is her talent and potential any crazier than Norman's, or Lyles, or Benjamin's or McLaughlin's?
    Last edited by Wiederganger; 07-24-2019 at 12:30 PM.
     

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    Jones was primarily an 800m runner as a junior who dabbled in the 400. He only took the 400m seriously since he started attending UTEP
    why don't people pronounce vowels anymore
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by DentyCracker View Post
    Jones was primarily an 800m runner as a junior who dabbled in the 400. He only took the 400m seriously since he started attending UTEP
    Thanks for that information - I didn't look at his profile only the all-time lists.

    It seems he's made the right choice:
    • His 400m is worth 1206 IAAF points compared to,
    • his 800m of 1:48.16 in 2016 which is worth 1079 and,
    • which is still better than his 200m PB from this year of 21.38 at 1013 points.


    Defininitely looks like a 400/800 guy rather than 200/400 guy. And it looks like he will soon own the top 10 400s out of the 1/8 million Barbadian male population.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wiederganger View Post
    A 52.17 from 2017 in a crap track & stadium obviously does not represent her form that year, that would have been a 51 had she the opportunity to run that elsewhere.

    So this is not a 52.17 to a 50.69 to a 49.19. We all know that.

    I've rarely seen such a lame attempt at making an argument. I wasn't sure it was worth responding to, but, hey, a few things.

    First thing you did was to change her initial season's time by about a second to shrink the 3 second improvement in 2 years, and blamed it on a slow track.

    She's gone from 52.17 to 49.19 in 2 years with no recorded time prior to the 52.17. No one you've mentioned has any comparable record. Brisco-Hooks was sprinting 22.53w for second at US nationals 5 years before LA. At best she was 0.8 faster over 200 meters 5 years later. You did the same thing when you ignored Bolt's curve in one event and focused only on another race, to exaggerate his overall improvement. Your "bad comparison" got called out.

    "We all know that". Commonly heard when children have no argument. You are not speaking for everyone nor does everyone agree with you.

    Fred Kerley? In the same time period as Seyni's been around, he took 1.28 off his 400 best from his initial season. Not 3 seconds. I won't compare what Seyni has done in 2 years to what anyone did in a longer time period.

    Pointless to consider anything else you listed, at this point.

    Wool over eyes, no thank you.
    Last edited by trackCanuck; 07-24-2019 at 02:34 PM.
     

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    You start to get good and suddenly you get more focused, you eat better, sleep better, do not screw around as much. And, likely in her case she went from having little quality training/coaching to a much higher level. The incentives a couple of years ago were probably being the best runner in her country; suddenly it is enough to make her rich. There might be some genetics involved in the Kenyan marathoners [and not the one you think], but a very big piece is the big increase in incentives.

    The genetics piece is that genetically Africans (ignore the fact that there are multiple sub-groups) have higher genetic variance than other groups. This makes it easier to have more people at the very top without there being a big difference in the mean in terms of natural ability. I will get a cite to the book and add it here.
     

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    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    You start to get good and suddenly you get more focused, you eat better, sleep better, do not screw around as much. And, likely in her case she went from having little quality training/coaching to a much higher level. The incentives a couple of years ago were probably being the best runner in her country; suddenly it is enough to make her rich. There might be some genetics involved in the Kenyan marathoners [and not the one you think], but a very big piece is the big increase in incentives.

    The genetics piece is that genetically Africans (ignore the fact that there are multiple sub-groups) have higher genetic variance than other groups. This makes it easier to have more people at the very top without there being a big difference in the mean in terms of natural ability. I will get a cite to the book and add it here.
    Yes some of this explains what motivates someone to work harder to get better. But it does not explain why a lot of people are wondering why they have never seen anything like it. Anyhow, if/when it becomes 4 seconds after 3 years, the trajectory will be all the more unusual.

    It took Kratochvilova 5 years to go from 51.09 to 47.99 and become WR holder. Marita Koch spent 10 years going from 51.60 to 47.60. In 2 years Seyni looks capable of overhauling both. Strange and stranger still.
    Last edited by trackCanuck; 07-24-2019 at 06:28 PM.
     

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    It is not unprecedented even if it is unusually fast. It also is a thesis that is incredibly prone to making selection bias errors. So why do you keep harping on it; you have not said anything much different in what might be a dozen posts dancing closely around your real point. You have made it and stop making doping innuendo repeatedly. By the way, didn't a recent w100m champion, relay WR-holder make dramatic improvement around age 25?
     

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