Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #11
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    I will vote for Democratic nominee Whoever when the time comes, but I don't think it will matter, as I expect Trump to be re-elected. Defeating an incumbent is difficult in any case, and the Democratic Party regularly proves itself to be the best gift the Republicans could ever wish for. Unless something really really significant occurs in the next 16 months to change Trump's fortunes, I expect him to be President for a second term.
     

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    #12
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    Trump is the only POTUS whose popularity has never gone over 50%. It's been stuck in the low 40%. This means he's not gaining voters. What the Dems have to do is attract people who went from long time Dems to vote for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and to get out the youth vote. Joe can get the former back if he keeps clear of promising the world. Pete can get out the latter, but he's not going anywhere until he interests the Blacks.
    Too many men and conservative women are just not ready for a "strong" woman yet. Get a woman VP and then things might change.
    In the end it is Trump himself who will decide the vote. He has many hurdles. The disastrous immigrant time bomb, Iran, the economy (which is too hot not to cool down). Global warming disasters are too far away. If his popularity doesn't budge he's in trouble....if people vote.
     

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    #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Master Po View Post
    Unless something really really significant occurs in the next 16 months to change Trump's fortunes, I expect him to be President for a second term.
    I was so 100% positive that Trump was unelectable (I had him at 35% BEST) that I have lost all faith in logical outcomes, ergo, I agree with you.
     

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    #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    I was so 100% positive that Trump was unelectable (I had him at 35% BEST) that I have lost all faith in logical outcomes, ergo, I agree with you.
    But you didn't count the Russians or James Comey or voter denial across the country. And 35% is a pretty good batting average.
     

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    #15
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    Biden is done. He's liked but his problem is he's old and sounds old. Bernie is old but doesn't sound it. Warren is going to be tough to beat. Harris has the Cali advantage in that Cali's primary is much sooner and she should siphon off plenty of votes. Mayor Pete does a good job on TV but might be a little too Mr. Rogers. Booker is the person to watch. Smart, personable, has good ideas, isn't as liberal as Bernie/Warren and people might think he's Obama #2.

    Everyone else needs to find something else to run for.
     

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    #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
    Trump is the only POTUS whose popularity has never gone over 50%. It's been stuck in the low 40%. This means he's not gaining voters. What the Dems have to do is attract people who went from long time Dems to vote for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and to get out the youth vote. Joe can get the former back if he keeps clear of promising the world.
    Biden has serious shortcomings as a candidate, but that's pretty much the key to his electability argument. He's the right kind of candidate to appeal to lost voters and swing voters in the Midwest, and if Democrats can't flip those states back they're pretty much losing even if another candidate works better for turning out the base en masse elsewhere.

    (In theory, if Democrats won all the states from 2016, plus Arizona which could well be in play, plus either Florida or both North Carolina and Georgia, that would be enough without flipping anything in the Midwest. But Trump's popularity is holding up better in Florida than it is in the Midwest; so if the Democrats successfully flip Florida they probably flipped several other states too. Likewise, if the Democrats flip Georgia they're probably winning all over the place. And Democrats can't rely on all the states from 2016, even if they gain support overall.)

    Biden's certainly not the only candidate who'd play well in the Midwest; someone like Klobuchar could flip those states back; but Klobuchar isn't winning the nomination.
     

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    #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by jeremyp View Post
    Trump is the only POTUS whose popularity has never gone over 50%. It's been stuck in the low 40%. This means he's not gaining voters. What the Dems have to do is attract people who went from long time Dems to vote for him (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and to get out the youth vote. Joe can get the former back if he keeps clear of promising the world.
    Biden has serious shortcomings as a candidate, but that's pretty much the key to his electability argument. He's the right kind of candidate to appeal to lost voters and swing voters in the Midwest, and if Democrats can't flip those states back they're pretty much losing even if another candidate works better for turning out the base en masse elsewhere.

    (In theory, if Democrats won all the states from 2016, plus Arizona which could well be in play, plus either Florida or both North Carolina and Georgia, that would be enough without flipping anything in the Midwest. But Trump's popularity is holding up better in Florida than it is in the Midwest; so if the Democrats successfully flip Florida they probably flipped several other states too. Likewise, if the Democrats flip Georgia they're probably winning all over the place. And Democrats can't rely on all the states from 2016, even if they gain support overall.)

    Biden's certainly not the only candidate who'd play well in the Midwest; someone like Klobuchar could flip those states back (and be sure of not losing Minnesota); but Klobuchar isn't winning the nomination.
     

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    #18
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    I think who the Democratic nominee will be is largely immaterial. 55-60% of polled population disapprove of Trump. The question is if they show up to vote.
    "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
    by Thomas Henry Huxley
     

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    #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Pego View Post
    I think who the Democratic nominee will be is largely immaterial. 55-60% of polled population disapprove of Trump. The question is if they show up to vote.
    Who the Dem's nominee is will be instrumental in how many show up to vote.
     

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    #20
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    The Democratic nominee will likely only matter on the margins; but it's also very possible that the election will be decided on the margins; the last one was.
     

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