Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #31
    Becca / PVP - good work on this. Could you send me an email at bam1729bam@gmail.com? I have some questions about this for a statistical project I am working on.
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    #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by olorin View Post
    Probably the WR as well.
    Let's say that she will score:
    12.2 (12.06)
    7.2 (7.49)
    15.5 (16.00)
    1.88 (1.91)
    54.5 (53.60 & 55.05 in the 400h)
    12.7 (12.61)
    38.00 (No PB but she in better that Grey in the SP and this 1m less than her result)
    NH
    48.00
    5:20 (with 2:08 800m should be possible)
    Sum up to 8367 which is better than the current WR by 9 points.
    JJK would not throw the discus that far unless she trained for it a bit, and then it would depend on how much training and how easily she picked it up. But if she had wanted to go a decathlon, she could easily sit over like 8 feet with zero training, and 9-10 feet with minimal training, so there is no reason to assign her zero points in the pole vault.

    Sure, JJK in her prime could break the WR in the dec, but I don't think she could do it with zero points in any event.

    Austra medaled in the Olympics in the heptathlon before and after setting the decathlon world record. It is far from a soft record.
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    #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by bambam1729 View Post
    Becca / PVP - good work on this. Could you send me an email at bam1729bam@gmail.com? I have some questions about this for a statistical project I am working on.
    You bet
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    #34
    JJK could have broken 8400 with 0 points in the PV. Would have taken several =PRs in one comp, but doable.
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    #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by polevaultpower View Post

    Austra medaled in the Olympics in the heptathlon before and after setting the decathlon world record. It is far from a soft record.
    It depends what you mean by a soft record. My guess is if the event had been a part of the major championship program for the last couple of decades, it would have been beaten by a few dozen women by now.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #36
    Quote Originally Posted by polevaultpower View Post
    JJK would not throw the discus that far unless she trained for it a bit, and then it would depend on how much training and how easily she picked it up.

    Sure, JJK in her prime could break the WR in the dec, but I don't think she could do it with zero points in any event.

    Austra medaled in the Olympics in the heptathlon before and after setting the decathlon world record. It is far from a soft record.
    Quote Originally Posted by polevaultpower View Post
    JJK would not throw the discus that far unless she trained for it a bit, and then it would depend on how much training and how easily she picked it up.

    Sure, JJK in her prime could break the WR in the dec, but I don't think she could do it with zero points in any event.

    .
    While 38m maybe a stretch the 100 & 400 times way underestimate JJK's ability.
    In the 100 if we assume 0.1 loss for every hurdle, we get ~11.6 (if we use her 22.3 in the 200 we will get an estimated time of ~11.1 but I am conservative :-) )
    She hardly ran the 400 and her PB is 53.5
    So using these two marks and 30m for the DT (Dragila threw 25m, surely you are not going to argue that JJK couldn't throw 30m with minimal training) get us to 8376WR.

    Another way to look at this - JJK PB in the Heptathlon is ~700 points more than Skujyte. In her decathlon WR, Skujyte got 600 points for the PV. I am sure you are not going to argue that Skujte can beat JJK in the other 9 events by 100 points.

    I really hope that women will do the decathlon in my lifetime (though I doubt it). I am willing to bet that the WR will be very close to men's WR (~9000) after a decade or so.
    Last edited by olorin; 06-25-2019 at 11:41 PM.
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    #37
    Quote Originally Posted by olorin View Post
    I really hope than women will do the decathlon in my lifetime (though I doubt it). I am willing to bet that the WR will go very close to men's WR (~9000) after a decade or so.
    But comparing to the men's WR is a rather meaningless comparison, given the different hurdles, throwing implements, and scoring tables.
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    #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    But comparing to the men's WR is a rather meaningless comparison, given the different hurdles, throwing implements, and scoring tables.
    The way the scoring tables are made, they should be a meaningful comparison between men and women because they are based on world records and world depth in an event.

    The women's pole vault table is off though, because it was based on the world record in like 2001 or so. We have recalculated it and will attempt to get the IAAF to change it (and add an indoor 1000 meter run combined events table at the same time).

    The scores get exponential as the marks get bigger. So the decathlon scores with bigger PV marks, like Dragila and Eveland, will be more adversely impacted than Skujyte's mark, but most of the positions on the world all-time list will not change.

    The women's decathlon world record is not soft in that it would take a world class level heptathlete who makes an effort to train for the decathlon to break it. I would consider a record soft if a huge number of active athletes are capable of breaking it at any given time.

    Yes, of course JJK could have achieved a bigger mark, but her hep record seems to be one of the more out of reach women's records.

    I expect the women's decathlon world record will fall once more elite athletes begin training for the event, and more opportunities become available. But it won't fall easily.

    Wish me luck in finding world record eligible facilities and the funding to have USADA on site!
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    #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by polevaultpower View Post
    Wish me luck in finding world record eligible facilities and the funding to have USADA on site!
    Sounds like a GoFundMe opportunity. If all the regulars here pitched in, you'd have like, $120!
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    #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    Sounds like a GoFundMe opportunity. If all the regulars here pitched in, you'd have like, $120!
    We raised nearly $5,000 for this year's event via GFM and had two sponsors on top of that. More to come next year!

    https://www.gofundme.com/womens-deca...zB3dJog6vdgaeM
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