Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by beebee View Post
    My point is that it is far too early to anoint anyone as the favorite. Defending Champ Bowie, Thompson, SAFP, Richardson, whomever. I believe the USATF women's sprints will result in similar if not better times.
    Agree with that, I thought the user above was referring to SAFP's prospects at the upcoming Pre meet. Doha is a long ways away for sure and Thompson - despite that great time - is still struggling with an Achilles injury it seems.

    The USATF's always produce great times - men and women both - but often the American women are unable to duplicate those times at Worlds.
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    #52
    Quote Originally Posted by The Flying Pigdog View Post
    Curious...how many times have SAFP and ET ran head-to-head against each other? Were there any other races apart from this race and Rio? They have done a good job avoiding each other up until now.
    They faced each other at trials in 2016 and 2018. I think they ran together at least once before Elaine became Elaine. But yes, they spend a lot of time avoiding each other.
    Quote Originally Posted by beebee View Post
    My point is that it is far too early to anoint anyone as the favorite. Defending Champ Bowie, Thompson, SAFP, Richardson, whomever. I believe the USATF women's sprints will result in similar if not better times.
    No reason to think they will produce better times. This isn't the first time Shelly and Elaine have gone so fast at trials and the Americans haven't typically bested them. Also, no one is calling a world championship favorite at this stage––we're talking about the upcoming race in Eugene.
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    #53
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    Do not be surprised if SAFP runs a relatively pedestrian time at Pre.
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    #54
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    By the way Brianna just took down Candace Hill's World U18 (Youth) Record of 10.98 with her 10.94
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    #55
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    The good thing about having your NCs in June this year is you can peak and then still have a 12 week cycle to prepare for Doha. I think if they were in August it would be more difficult.

    I did not think we'd see both low 10.7 at all before the champs, but during the rounds both looked so smooth. On pedigree and proven Champs form, they're the likely top two in Doha. The only women who might be able to challenge are Bowie, DAS and Ta Lou. It's far too long a season for Richardson IMO, assuming she qualifies.

    But can Bowie get to the low 10.7 form she needs? She's been a mid 10.8 woman at Champs, she's never run 10.7 at World/Olympics, and I think it's too much to expect her to be in her best form ever after tearing her muscle last season.

    DAS always peaks so well at Champs. Assuming she does run both events - not sure she's said what she's doing yet? She may just do the 200 - then I'm not sure she too can get to low 10.7. It seems more and more nowadays to get to that time you need to focus your efforts on the 100, it's so much tougher if you're spreading your focus over both sprint events.

    Ta Lou is a question mark for me. Peaks well like DAS but just doesn't seem to have that bit extra she needs. That's harsh I know, but she just always gets outgunned (or out dipped!)

    Schippers will do well to just focus her efforts on a third 200 title but she'll no doubt double, make the 100 final, and come something like 6th in 10.9+

    There's a host of other women but 10.7? Nope.
    Last edited by Gabriella2; 06-22-2019 at 08:47 AM.
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    #56
    ^Agreed. No other active female sprinter has ever gone this quickly. In fact, no other active sprinter has run sub-10.8 with less than a +1.0 tailwind, so these two are already in a form that no-one else right now has ever reached. That's enough to put them in the driving seat as far as I'm concerned, but obviously others are capable of setting lifetime bests to possibly challenge.

    Man I wish they had better quality recordings at this meet. That was honestly one of the best 100m races I've seen in years, only 0.003 in it. Thompson was emotional in her post-race interview and said she isn't even 100% yet, so what does that mean come Doha? SAFP's form started to break down on the latter stages of the race as she felt Thompson pulling up alongside her. Nobody has been finishing within 2 metres of her at the domestic meets she's been running in until now - I expect running races on the circuit against other top competitors will help with her race fitness.

    And that new world youth record for Williams. Ato Bolden has been bigging her up all year and for good reason, clearly. Sub-11 looked inevitable after that semi-final performance but was still incredible to see.

    All 3 women have been entered into the 200m prelims today, but as I understand it, Williams is the only one who may double come worlds.
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    #57
    Quote Originally Posted by trackCanuck View Post
    I don't know of another 100 with the first 3 averaging out to 10.80 and all from the same country.
    Here is the list of the top races based on average of first three times in drug/wind legal races, including the WR prelim. Data from http://www.alltime-athletics.com/w_100ok.htm

    Rank Competition Avg3 1 2 3
    1 Eugene|2016.07.03| 10.77 10.74 10.78 10.78
    2 Indianapolis|1988.07.16|q1 10.77 10.49 10.86 10.97
    3 Indianapolis|1988.07.17| 10.78 10.61 10.81 10.91
    Sevilla|1999.08.22| 10.78 10.70 10.79 10.84
    5 London|2012.08.04| 10.78 10.75 10.78 10.81
    6 Berlin|2009.08.17| 10.79 10.73 10.75 10.90
    7 Rio de Janeiro|2016.08.13| 10.80 10.71 10.83 10.86
    Kingston|2019.06.21 10.80 10.73 10.73 10.94
    9 Budapest|1998.08.19| 10.81 10.73 10.83 10.87
    Eugene|2010.07.03| 10.81 10.78 10.82 10.83
    Eugene|2011.06.04| 10.81 10.70 10.86 10.87
    Beijing|2015.08.24| 10.81 10.76 10.81 10.86
    13 Eugene|2015.05.30|rA 10.81 10.81 10.81 10.82
    14 Thessaloníki|2009.09.13| 10.82 10.67 10.89 10.90
    Kingston|2012.06.29| 10.82 10.70 10.82 10.94
    16 Barcelona|1992.08.01| 10.83 10.82 10.83 10.84
    17 Saint-Denis|2015.07.04| 10.84 10.74 10.80 10.97
    18 Kingston|2008.06.28| 10.84 10.80 10.85 10.87
    19 Bruxelles|2011.09.16| 10.84 10.78 10.85 10.90
    Stuttgart|1993.08.16| 10.84 10.82 10.82 10.89
    21 Berlin|1997.08.26| 10.85 10.81 10.85 10.88

    I will check on nationality later if anybody is interested.
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    #58
    Checked on nationality and found the following with first three from same country:

    Competition Avg3
    Eugene|2016.07.03| 10.767
    Indianapolis|1988.07.16|q1 10.773
    Indianapolis|1988.07.17| 10.777
    Kingston|2019.06.21| 10.800
    Kingston|2012.06.29| 10.820
    Kingston|2008.06.28| 10.840

    I didn't dig any deeper than the list I posted above.
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    #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Flying Pigdog View Post
    If we are talking Pre, Thompson isn't in the w100 race. Richardson ran her 10.75 with a very nice tailwind, the Jamaicans beat that time with a worse wind. In fact, SAFP's 10.88 (-0.5) adjusts to the same as Richardson's 10.75 (+1.6).
    And how many races at a high level had they run that day and the two days previous? 100/200/4x100 S/F six races, three each day (with a day between). Also quite warm in Austin, but Jamaica couldn't have been too cool.
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    #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235 View Post
    And how many races at a high level had they run that day and the two days previous? 100/200/4x100 S/F six races, three each day (with a day between). Also quite warm in Austin, but Jamaica couldn't have been too cool.
    The rationalizations are endless, figuring a way to take credit from a teenager who broke a 42 year old world record. Also to try and prognosticate the women's WC 100 solely after the Jamaican Championships is quite bias.
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