Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by gh View Post
    except that we don't know what Koch's max was at 300, since she never (true?) actually ran one. So I don't see it as illogical that in a targeted 300 SMU couldn't be faster than the Koch split.
    Faster than Koch's 400 split, sure, I said as much. My point was that if Koch had run an all-out 300, you'd expect she'd have been significantly faster.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    But what are the signs?
    Gabriella's analysis seemed to point to 48-mid-ish. I was comparing SMU's time to other times from the same race (the clearest point of comparison, in that we know the conditions were the same) and my first impression was that that pointed the same way; but on reanalysis perhaps that is pushing it a bit. Still, though; SMU beat Święty-Ersetic (50.85 last weekend) by 2.09. SMU beat Kiełbasińska by 1.93; Kiełbasińska ran a 51.57 PB last weekend, and is a 200/400 type similar to SMU, so we could extrapolate a ~2.7 margin for 400. SMU beat Stepter, another 200/400 type, by 1.71, and Stepter just ran 51.44 in Rabat, historically not the fastest track.

    That points to 48.7-48.8; and though it certainly could err on the optimistic side (because you'd expect some of SMU's rivals to have an off-day while SMU clearly didn't have an off-day, and because those are the margins easiest to analyse but some of the margins harder to analyse might be less encouraging if you try), I doubt it's that optimistic since SMU's already run 49 flat this year.
    Last edited by LopenUupunut; 06-21-2019 at 04:12 PM.
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    #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by guru View Post
    Being that Koch's time is an en-route hand "split", I'll take its accuracy with a grain of salt.

    Put Naser a lane or two outside of SMU in Doha or Tokyo, I like SMU's chances of breaking 48. At least...
    Wasn't she in Lane 1; if so the split is not that hard to get. Also, a 34.1 ht is way better as she wasn't ready to collapse. On the other hand, even being a second slower, 48.4 is pretty darn good, since we have no0t had a lot of 48s of late.
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    #74
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    Can we also add that Ostrava is not known as a fast track, and it was a very cool evening.
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    #75
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    What a fun meet! SMU looks sort of lean/gaunt-ish which makes sense with her times so fast so early. Hope she doesn't peak too soon.
    You there, on the motorbike! Sell me one of your melons!
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    #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    Bednarek looks heavy and plodding. Either he's burned out from his stellar college season or he hasn't got his Euro legs yet. Needs some quality training time. Is this his first time abroad? He might be stunned by the differences between here and there. I've been abroad many times, and I'm ALWAYS stunned by the differences.
    What's the main difference?
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    #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I doubt that. There's a big difference between a 300 split in a 400 race and an all-out 300.
    Usually I would agree, but note that WVN's 31.03 en route to his WR is the #4 performance of all time. His WR of 30.81 is only 0.22 faster. IMO, SMU is in 48-high form and still a very long way from 47.60.
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    #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Paced View Post
    Point taken, but although Seyni is certainly a sub-50 waiting to happen, I'm not sold she can she challenge the 49 second barrier so soon. Stranger things have happened I guess.
    Told ya something
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    #79
    Seyni will be under 48 seconds soon enough. Then 47. And probably 46.
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    #80
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    enough
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