Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #51
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    Gabriella2 - I appreciate the analysis. Thanks.
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    #52
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    You're welcome. I was just really collating information that is already available, and it was fun doing it and only took ten mins (as you can probably tell from the rushed tone!). But it was an interesting exercise.

    And I'll reiterate that final point, when only one woman, once, has run faster over that distance, you have to consider that SMU is on for something fast, in the right conditions.

    Yes, the 300 is a rarely run event, and yes, some of the fastest times recorded are en route to 400s, but we can only use what data is available and try and come to a reasonable conclusion. When she's 1 second faster than Guevara and Cheeseborough, who were running a 300m race, and were between 48.8 and 49.0 form, then it's not unreasonable to think SMU can run 48.5 I don't think, especially considering her speed over 200. I think SMU is more akin to Cheeseborough in terms of PBs (CC is 11.13/21.99/49.05) than Guevara, and we know Guevara finished with a good final 100m, but I think SMU is better able to do this, this year. We'll soon find out!
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    #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriella2 View Post
    Everyone knows that, but consider her time against others and that context:

    300m Races
    She beat these women who ran a 300m race by 1 second:

    - Guevara 35.30A...(run the same year she set her 400m PB of 48.89)
    - Cook 35.46...(run the same year she set her 400m PB of 49.43)
    - Cheeseborough 35.46...(run the.same year she set her 400m PB of 49.05)

    Analysed 300m split in a 400m race
    The only faster recorded time is Koch's from her 47.60 WR - either 34.14 or 34.22, depending on your source.

    - Koch's next best was 34.66 en route to her 48.16 in Prague 84.
    - The only other sub 35 in this category was Kratochvilova's 34.95 en route to her 48.86

    Hand timed 300m split from a 400m race (all slower)
    Sub 35:
    - 34.8 Koch en route to 48.94 Prague '78
    - 34.8 Koch en route to 48.16 Athens '82

    35+
    - 35.0 Koch en route to 48.60 Torino '79
    - 35.1 Perec en route to 48.25 Atlanta '96
    - 35.1 Perec en route to 49.47 Paris '96
    - 35. 1 Freeman en route to 48.63 Atlanta '96
    - 35.2 Bryzgina en route to 49.05 Barcelona '92

    Other notable hand times
    - 35.0 Drechsler (from one of the Sovetsky annuals courtesy of PJ)

    Miller-Uibo herself ran 36.1 during her 48.97 race from last year, and 35.34 during her 49.44 Olympic race. She has already run a 49.05 this year, just 8/100ths off her PB. She said she's in the form of her life. So, I believe she will run at least a couple of tenths faster, and in perfect conditions she could run under 48.5. But I will say she needs the right competition and will be dependent on the right track and conditions. But you cant ignore that only Koch, once, has run faster.


    Edit: Source for all of this was Peter Larsson's All Time Lists and Pierre-Jean (coach, member of ATFS, contributor to Le Monde etc.)
    The splits are here and in force...Lol. Excellent analysis. Given the above I would say she can theoretically go out in 35.5 (over a full second slower than the all out 34.4) and still finish in the same 12.88 she did in the 48.97 race. That gives her a real chance at 48.38 if the stars align.
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    #54
    Gabriella 2 i sent you a private message. If i am breaking any message board protocol in notifying Gabriella 2 here i am sorry.
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    #55
    Quote Originally Posted by thedoorknobbroke View Post
    the next time you hear a really good tv announcer will be the first time
    Some are better than others. IMHO, the best was Charlie Jones. The guy who did Ostrava was not very good.
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    #56
    Quote Originally Posted by Paced View Post

    I wonder how long we'll have to wait to see a SMU vs Naser match-up. The latter seems to be building towards Doha more slowly though so it may not be much of a contest right now..
    Aminatou Seyni will have something to say. Considering that she's coming from one of the poorest countries in the world which has NEVER produced a world class track and field athlete, with better coaching and better race tactic who knows... I wonder where she's based. France?
    We are in for some weird stuff this year.
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    #57
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    Is it just me, or are there no results posted to the meet website? Can someone provide a link to them?
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    #58
    Quote Originally Posted by JRM View Post
    Is it just me, or are there no results posted to the meet website? Can someone provide a link to them?
    They are on the IAAF site.
    https://www.iaaf.org/results/iaaf-wo...den-spike-6546
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    #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Pakilo View Post
    Aminatou Seyni will have something to say. Considering that she's coming from one of the poorest countries in the world which has NEVER produced a world class track and field athlete, with better coaching and better race tactic who knows... I wonder where she's based. France?
    We are in for some weird stuff this year.
    Point taken, but although Seyni is certainly a sub-50 waiting to happen, I'm not sold she can she challenge the 49 second barrier so soon. Stranger things have happened I guess.
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    #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriella2 View Post

    She isn't in sub 48 form, but she's in low to mid 48 form. Which is still pretty damn amazing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I doubt that. There's a big difference between a 300 split in a 400 race and an all-out 300.
    What was her split last year approaching 48.97?

    She has to be a lot stronger now, 34.41 is brilliant. I'd venture, in the absence of unfavorable weather, 48.5 would be the slowest we'll see in Doha from SMU. Naser is running for 2nd at this point.
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