Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davidokun View Post
    As previously mentioned, my projections are based on summing average event performances. As anticipated, the athletes generally outscore these projections because they are peaking for this championship event. The difference may be viewed as a shortcoming of my present methodology. Alternatively, it may be viewed as a measure of the successful preparation of coaches and athletes.
    One forecasting approach is to see how athletes do in championship races relative to means and medians and build in that differential in to the forecasts. In addition, I suspect that there is some information content in the comparison of means and medians, especially in comparison to the relationships between the event PRs and the sum of individual PRs. Finally, in individual PRs, outliers might be unreliable except for in the 1500. There, only marks where the athlete is pushing hard (as in a championship where a score matters, or to qualify) should be given much weight. There is a pretty good literature on expert opinion and how to weight different 'experts' to get the best forecast (some colleagues of my wife are tip doing this). One application here might be to use several different forecast models and look at what causes them to be different when you get disparate forecasts for an athlete.

    Of course, that is a lot more work than we might be willing to put in. [I know that I have thought about a model to estimate the wind effects for the LJ, which could also be applied to the TJ, but I have not yet moved to do so because of the work involved and the effort to get the data.]
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    #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davidokun View Post
    As previously mentioned, my projections are based on summing average event performances. As anticipated, the athletes generally outscore these projections because they are peaking for this championship event. The difference may be viewed as a shortcoming of my present methodology. Alternatively, it may be viewed as a measure of successful preparation by coaches and athletes.
    Yeah, I'm sure not complaining, but it seems that collegians are consistently getting better as they mature, get faster/stronger, master the technical aspects, and peak for this one meet. Ideally half exceed the projection and half fall short, but I do like the idea that you project conservatively.
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    #23
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    This discussion reminds me of a favorite quip by one of my father's former colleagues:

    Man's greatest drive is neither sex nor food but to edit another man's work.

    Jim Burke
    SDM
    1982
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    #24
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    Zamzow 49.56 (162-7) 852 5416
    Gittens 33.22 (109-0) 538 5356
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    #25
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    Update after javelin throw:

    Projected
    Rank
    Name
    Projected
    Score
    Difference from
    Initial Projection
    1
    Zamzow
    6235
    +330
    2
    Gittens
    5965
    +104
    3
    Atherley
    5948
    +39
    4
    Beattie
    5903
    +378
    5
    Bender
    5884
    +52
    6
    FrÝynes
    5875
    +108
    7
    Gray
    5839
    +216
    8
    Rusnak
    5742
    +291
    9
    Taubert
    5731
    +142
    10
    Lester
    5726
    +260
    11
    Marsh
    5651
    +147
    .
    .
    .
    18
    Berge
    5411
    -98
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    #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by Davidokun View Post
    Zamzow 49.56 (162-7) 852 5416
    Gittens 33.22 (109-0) 538 5356
    How did Gittens outthrow Z in the SP and then get buried in the JT by over 300 points?!
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    #27
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    Projecting things involving human beings is tough. Projecting maturing human beings tougher. Projecting maturing human beings with a tiny historical sample size is ridiculous. Now add in the pressure of a championship event with shifting weather conditions... good effing luck.

    Thank you for all the time and effort.
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    #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    How did Gittens outthrow Z in the SP and then get buried in the JT by over 300 points?!
    Zamzow is a much better javelin thrower and Gittens did a poor job.
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    #29
    Quote Originally Posted by booond View Post
    Zamzow is a much better javelin thrower and Gittens did a poor job.
    Bingo.

    Zamzow is a 53m thrower at her best. Gittens struggles to hit 40m, and was way off today.
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    #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by gm View Post
    Bingo.

    Zamzow is a 53m thrower at her best. Gittens struggles to hit 40m, and was way off today.
    And this goes back to projecting human beings. Why did Gittens do so poorly? Probably we'll never know but 3 throws under huge pressure in an event where you aren't very good at such a young age might have something to do with it.
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