Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Tuariki View Post
    What would be fascinating is if Semenya wins the 3,000. What will the IAAF do then?
    If she moves up to the 3000/5000 and does as well as she has done at shorter distances, the IAAF will indeed have to figure out what to do. Asssuming that the recent CAS ruling is upheld on appeal (if there is an appeal), I suppose the logical next step would be for the iAAF to expand the study on which their current rule is based to include longer events.

    I agree with gh--this part of the discussion doesn't really belong here. We've got other recent threads on the testo issue.
    Last edited by tandfman; 05-21-2019 at 10:11 PM.
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    #22
    Any talk of Semenya becoming really fast at 3000 is vastly premature. Her times at 400/800/1500 make it obvious where she's best - right smack dab in the middle. The longer it gets, the longer it will take her to become really fast. That could be a year or more away.
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    #23
    Semenya could win this 3000 if it turns into a sit-and-kick gig of slower than 9 minutes. No woman, except maybe Houlihan can challenge Semenya's kick if the previous laps weren't fast enough to take the kick away. But Houlihan isn't listed for this race.
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    #24
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    There is no way the race will be a sit and kick in around 9mins. It might be a sit and kick around 8:40, but no way with that calibre of field will it be 9mins. Remember a full 18 women ran between 8:25 and 8:50 in Doha, 10 of those between 8:25 and 8:40. It may not have quite the same depth of Africans, but it's close, and this will still be a huge challenge for Semenya to be competitive.

    The race is still over 1 month away, and presumably she has been adjusting her training slightly leading into the IAAF announcement, and most likely since, to include longer work outs (if she hasn't then she obviously didn't realise CAS would do what that did)

    For her 3k PB from back in 2017 she averaged over 76 secs per lap. For her 5k PB from this year, she also averaged over 76 secs per lap. Based off that, one assume she can run faster laps at 3k now, but can she run the 6secs+ faster per lap she'd need to run an 8:45? I would be impressed if she could.
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    #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriella2 View Post
    There is no way the race will be a sit and kick in around 9mins. It might be a sit and kick around 8:40, but no way with that calibre of field will it be 9mins.
    Matt Centrowicz would like to have a word with you.
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    #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    Matt Centrowicz would like to have a word with you.
    You took the words out of my...hands? Something. But that was what flashed through my head reading the same post from Gabriella.
    You there, on the motorbike! Sell me one of your melons!
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    #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    Matt Centrowicz would like to have a word with you.
    Of course races of this kind can and do happen in major championship finals, but not in DL meets with pacemakers.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #28
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    Agree with Gabriella & Powell. Moreover, looking at Ayana's approach to racing in 2015-2017, she has shown no interest in slower-paced 'sit & kick' tactics.
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    #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    Matt Centrowicz would like to have a word with you.
    But I don't think CS has the ability to shift gears like Centrowicz did in a furious final sprint. She reminds me of Alberto Juantorena in her ability to simply put the hammer down and pound everyone else into submission. That ability does not necessarily translate into the ability to sit on a slow pace and then go with the Obiri's with 200 or 400 to go.

    But who knows, she might have that in her arsenal also. We shall soon find out.
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    #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Of course races of this kind can and do happen in major championship finals, but not in DL meets with pacemakers.
    And with Semenya in the race, every runner has less incentive to sit & kick. For that reason, I like having Semenya in a longer race. She will force honest pace from other runners.
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