Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Jacksf View Post
    Anyone who follows T&F, knows that high school success is not an indicator of any future success in the sport.
    I would disagree, and say that anyone who follows T&F absolutely knows that HS success is AN indicator of future success. Being the #1 in HS is not necessarily that correlated to being #1 in College, or Nationally, or globally - but there is certainly a higher r-squared of HS phenoms developing into global stars than there is of an 11.5 100m runner developing into a 9.9.

    Event by event, I can't think of many top global performers who weren't extremely good at the HS/Junior level. Of course can think of many top HS performers who never improved beyond HS (I made TFN list twice in HS - but never got better until I re-started as a Master's Athlete after age 30!) But most top global talents were very good long before reaching maturity.
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    #12
    How many of these guys were successful after high school?
    Only 2.


    "a treat for you non-subscribers from the Boling story we published last week: the complete list of sub-45 relay legs by preps:

    44.2 Chris Nelloms (Dunbar, Dayton, Ohio) World Junior Champs 8/12/90

    44.3 *William Reed (Central, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania) Olympic Sports Festival 7/25/87

    44.52 ——**Reed World Junior Champs 7/20/86

    44.58 *Thomas Burns (Northwestern, Miami, Florida) New Balance Nationals 6/18/17

    44.5 Henry Thomas (Hawthorne, California) Texas Relays 4/06/85

    44.74 Matthew Boling (Strake, Houston, Texas) State 5/11/19

    44.7 *Milton Mallard (North, Garland, Texas) Junior Olympics 7/28/91

    44.8+ Johnny Jones (Lampasas, Texas) Viking Relays 4/09/76

    44.8 *Roy Martin (Roosevelt, Dallas, Texas) Texas Relays 4/07/84

    44.8. Andre Steele (Salisbury, North Carolina) Junior International 7/07/91

    44.8. *Obea Moore (Muir, Pasadena, California) State 6/01/96

    44.8. *Michael Norman (Vista Murrieta, Murrieta, California) State 6/04/15

    44.9 ——Martin Texas Relays 4/06/85"
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    #13
    How about these top HS long jumpers?

    "The top 11 performers:

    1. 26-10 Marquise Goodwin (Rowlett, Texas) 2009

    2. 26-9¼ Dion Bentley (Penn Hills, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1989

    3. 26-8½ *Sheddric Fields (South Oak Cliff, Dallas, Texas) 1991

    4. 26-8¼ Carl Lewis (Willingboro, New Jersey) 1979

    5. 26-5½ Charles Smith (Las Vegas, Nevada) 1984

    6. 26-4¾ James Stallworth (Tulare, California) 1989

    7. 26-3½ Matthew Boling (Strake, Houston, Texas) 2019

    8. 26-2¼ Ken Duncan (McClatchy, Sacramento, California) 1972

    9. 26-2i(A) Jerry Proctor (Muir, Pasadena, California) 1967

    10. 26-1½ Todd Trimble (Southeast, Kansas City, Missouri) 1989

    10. 26-1½ Ja’Mari Ward (Cahokia, Illinois) 2016"
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    #14
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    Fast young uns may or may not become fast adults but slow young uns don't.
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    #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Jacksf View Post
    How about these top HS long jumpers?

    "The top 11 performers:

    1. 26-10 Marquise Goodwin (Rowlett, Texas) 2009

    2. 26-9¼ Dion Bentley (Penn Hills, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania) 1989

    3. 26-8½ *Sheddric Fields (South Oak Cliff, Dallas, Texas) 1991

    4. 26-8¼ Carl Lewis (Willingboro, New Jersey) 1979

    5. 26-5½ Charles Smith (Las Vegas, Nevada) 1984

    6. 26-4¾ James Stallworth (Tulare, California) 1989

    7. 26-3½ Matthew Boling (Strake, Houston, Texas) 2019

    8. 26-2¼ Ken Duncan (McClatchy, Sacramento, California) 1972

    9. 26-2i(A) Jerry Proctor (Muir, Pasadena, California) 1967

    10. 26-1½ Todd Trimble (Southeast, Kansas City, Missouri) 1989

    10. 26-1½ Ja’Mari Ward (Cahokia, Illinois) 2016"

    Goodwin -- I think we all know how he has done.
    Bentley -- ended up with a PR of 8.39/27-6.5
    Fields -- good career at Houston
    Lewis -- who?
    Smith -- interesting story, was deaf after spinal meningitis as a child and struggled to find a good collegiate program in the years before adequate services were available
    Stallworth -- I think this explains it best https://www.ourvalleyvoice.com/2017/...orth-back-top/
    Duncan -- no idea
    Proctor -- won the NCAA meet with a windy 8.22 and had a legal PR of 8.09/26-6.5
    Trimble -- OT finalist in '92, also had a post-HS PR of 8.05/26-5
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    #16
    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf View Post
    Fast young uns may or may not become fast adults but slow young uns don't.
    Comment of the day.....
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    #17
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    Comparison? Yeah, right...one has and is, and the other hopes to be.
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    #18
    Ok. So each cycle is a crap shoot in terms of who advances and who does not? That would seem to be an eternal truth around here that out of 10 top talents, perhaps one will move to the next level and someone will come out of nowhere to advance as well.

    I seem to remember Lyles being pretty universally regarded as the next big thing coming out of HS. We also have a string of guys who looked pretty impressive at that point not move to the world class level.

    Still, what informs people’s intuition about Boling? Do people think there is more there? Which is he most likely to break:44, 9.8, 20.0, 8.30?
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    #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Dave View Post
    Comment of the day.....
    Agreed. And if you want, you can retrofit it: How many of these professional stars were strong in HS:

    1. Bryan Clay - top 5 in first Dec, and I believe top 10 in LJ, 110H, 100, 200 - in fact most of the top Dec guys showed promise basically as soon as they started doing Dec.
    2. Carl Lewis - per above
    3. Mike Powell - 8.06 indoors as a junior
    4. Alan Webb
    5. Bolt
    6. Mary Decker (2:02 in HS)
    7. Jeremy Wariner (20.4, and 45.5 in HS)

    List is endless - but the point is they are highly related (LJ is a great case in point). And in general, anybody who got great was very good relatively early. But obviously, not everybody who was great early on stayed there.
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    #20
    Quote Originally Posted by deca View Post
    Agreed. And if you want, you can retrofit it: How many of these professional stars were strong in HS:

    1. Bryan Clay - top 5 in first Dec, and I believe top 10 in LJ, 110H, 100, 200 - in fact most of the top Dec guys showed promise basically as soon as they started doing Dec.
    2. Carl Lewis - per above
    3. Mike Powell - 8.06 indoors as a junior
    4. Alan Webb
    5. Bolt
    6. Mary Decker (2:02 in HS)
    7. Jeremy Wariner (20.4, and 45.5 in HS)

    List is endless - but the point is they are highly related (LJ is a great case in point). And in general, anybody who got great was very good relatively early. But obviously, not everybody who was great early on stayed there.
    My favorite counter example is Ashton Eaton. He didn’t show up on anyone’s list. I think he may have been the 400m state champion and then things worked out for him.

    Edit. He was also the LJ state champion and a better long jumper than 400 guy. https://www.athletic.net/TrackAndFie...aspx?AID=14952
    Last edited by Dave; 05-21-2019 at 11:36 PM.
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