Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s View Post
    That's how see it with the XY DSD situation. They're like a small country with a population of less than a million, with a modest participation rate in track & field, so their actual observed performance is far from their maximum potential.
    But when someone is #1 out of a million, you cannot conclude this person is one in a million talent. It could be 1 in 10 million or 1 in 100 million.

    Grenada has only 107k people, but a talent like Kirani James is certainly more exceptional than one in 107,000. (Or 53,500 if you only count male.)
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    Quote Originally Posted by TN1965 View Post
    But when someone is #1 out of a million, you cannot conclude this person is one in a million talent. It could be 1 in 10 million or 1 in 100 million.

    Grenada has only 107k people, but a talent like Kirani James is certainly more exceptional than one in 107,000. (Or 53,500 if you only count male.)
    Grenada, Jamaica, and the Bahamas are small countries with a much higher participation rate and coaching know-how in track & field than most of the rest of the world, so they are able produce elite athletes at an outsized rate relative to their populations.

    But as I mentioned before, the global XY DSD population is not concentrated in a track-savvy country; they're scattered all around the world. If they all were concentrated in Jamaica, some would be sprinters on par with elite men. If they were all raised in Ethiopia, some could challenge the elite male distance runners. If they were all in the Dominican Republic, a few would become Major League Baseball players. If they were all raised in Brazil, some would be on men's professional soccer teams.
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    You are still missing my point (perhaps intentionally).

    If someone is #100 out of 10,000, it's safe to assume he is not in the top 0.1%
    But if someone is #1 out of 100, there is no way of knowing if he is in the top 0.1%

    We simply don't know if Semenya is one in 500,000, one in a million or one in five million talent. We don't have enough data to know that.
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