Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    Timothy Kitum was 17 when her ran 1:42.53 in 2012.
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    Yep, my mistake!
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    Quote Originally Posted by tandfman View Post
    Not a world age-17 record. Mohamed Aman ran 1:43.37 in 2011 when he was that age.
    Was he really that young?
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    Quote Originally Posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post
    Was he really that young?
    Don't be a birther ok? I guess to you some get the benefit of doubt while others do not.
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    Quote Originally Posted by LuckySpikes View Post
    Oh my word! 17yo Max Burgin has just run 1:45.36 at the England U20 Championships for a British U20 record and improving his PB from 1:46.78. His splits were 52.0/53.4.

    Also a world age-17 record!
    maybe a world braces record? :-)

    https://www.britishathletics.org.uk/...-group-trials/
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    Quote Originally Posted by beebee View Post
    Don't be a birther ok? I guess to you some get the benefit of doubt while others do not.
    I'm seriously asking since I've heard of problems from some of these countries. Untwist your panties!
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    I have no idea about this case, but it's really hard NOT to be a birther when some nations do not have actual records on some of their athletes. There have certainly been frauds and not because they were trying to cheat; they were just being liberal in their estimate of DoB.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Atticus View Post
    I have no idea about this case, but it's really hard NOT to be a birther when some nations do not have actual records on some of their athletes. There have certainly been frauds and not because they were trying to cheat; they were just being liberal in their estimate of DoB.
    A few years ago, I asked a runner from Somalia about this. He told me that in a nomadic society, today's date and one's birthdate are of no consequence, it's more about where one's next meal is coming from. Someone's age is the count of rainy seasons they have lived through. Obviously not an exact science; some years there is no rainy season, some years there are two. When a birthdate is needed, the year is calculated from the age, and an arbitrary month and year is supplied. DoubleRBar could probably tell us he will never run out of athletes with January 1 birthdays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by proofs in the pudd'in View Post
    I'm seriously asking since I've heard of problems from some of these countries. Untwist your panties!
    Look friend, there's a long history of questioning people from underdeveloped Nations age as a way to undermine their accomplishments as well as justification of a beat down.
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    There is actually a statistical reason that fits in with the questioning of age for young athletes where age is only known approximately. In brief, there is a true (unknown) age and a listed age (sometimes the two are the same but we are only dealing with the case where the exact age is not known). With no other information, the error in the estimated age is a purely random variable. However, when other information is available you get some potential information on the error. Specifically, since performance at a young age generally increases with age (especially for males) then a really good performance for a given age is an indication that the error is probably to have the true age higher than the 'official' age. However, it is just a relationship that tells you about likelihood, not about the true facts (and the true facts include the cases with a known age). So, yes, take age records or great youth performances relative to age with a grain of salt, but it does not take a conspiracy theory...
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