Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Like I said before, even had I known he was doing the 1500, I wouldn't have picked him for a medal. But then I picked all the wrong Ingebrigtsens as well.
    I did pick Lewandowski in 1500... - but very little else. The worst placement in my life, by far .
    I think I did a lot better in the Confidence 20 pool. Still cannot access the results.
    "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
    by Thomas Henry Huxley
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    Quote Originally Posted by Athletic Pavesins View Post
    I do the same with Italian athletes.
    Well, it's not a rule. There were a couple of Polish athletes who I overestimated. I had Święty for gold, so it's not like I was overly cautious with picking Poles. I guess my problem is I'm usually too adventureous with my picks, when more conservative ones would do better.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Well, it's not a rule. There were a couple of Polish athletes who I overestimated. I had Święty for gold, so it's not like I was overly cautious with picking Poles. I guess my problem is I'm usually too adventureous with my picks, when more conservative ones would do better.
    I was too adventurous as well. I was the only person to pick Minenko to win the women’s TJ. And I also had Torneus winning the LJ.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pego View Post
    I think I did a lot better in the Confidence 20 pool. Still cannot access the results.
    The results are accessible now. I did OK, though not quite as well as in the other one.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    I guess my problem is I'm usually too adventureous with my picks, when more conservative ones would do better.
    Same here. Being the only person in the top 100 to leave Mondo out of the medals does not look like a genius move right now.

    I think Atticus's secret is that his picks tend to be fairly vanilla. He's like Most Chosen, only better.
    Last edited by LopenUupunut; 08-12-2018 at 10:27 PM.
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    Winner of the 2018 Top3 Contest with 224 participants is Gustavo Candelas from Spain. Second became Sampsa Lahtonen from Finland and third Victor Ceresuela also from Spain. Gustavo won also the 2015 contest and Sampsa won the 2016 contest, with also Christoph Thurner winner of the 2006 and 2009 contests finishing 6th, we learn that performing in this contest is more an art then you would expect.

    Winner of the 2018 Pick20 Contest is Daniel Grooms from Great Britain. Second and third became Paul Green and Ceri Dibble both also from Great Britain. With 11 of the top 13 all coming from Great Britain this is far beyond coincidence... And the other 2 are half british - Australians.
    Who can explain this?

    I will tomorrow update the all time rankings.
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    Quote Originally Posted by RvW View Post
    Winner of the 2018 Pick20 Contest is Daniel Grooms from Great Britain. Second and third became Paul Green and Ceri Dibble both also from Great Britain. With 11 of the top 13 all coming from Great Britain this is far beyond coincidence... And the other 2 are half british - Australians.
    Who can explain this?
    I think the answer to that is that investing points in British favorites (Muir; Asher-Smith; Hudson-Smith; Hughes; the 4x1 relays) was a winning strategy this year, and British contestants were more likely to do that. The only British favorites to not come through were the 4x4 relay teams, which (for some or other reason) British contestants were not more likely to back.

    It also seems to me that the three biggest upsets this year were Mayer, Shubenkov and Schwanitz; and (from a quick look, without any objective analysis) pick-20 success this year appears to have correlated much more strongly with avoiding Schwanitz (or giving her low points) than with avoiding Mayer or Shubenkov. I have no idea why all the Brits realized that Schwanitz was to be avoided, though.

    Thanks for another fun contest, hopefully the game will be back next year!
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    Quote Originally Posted by LopenUupunut View Post
    I think Atticus's secret is that his picks tend to be fairly vanilla. He's like Most Chosen, only better.
    Vanilla = most prudent, as opposed to riskier. I had no form chart to go by, so I started by identifying the 'most likely' and then looking at who seemed to be on an up-tick. It's more art than science, that's for dang sure. How you do in any one year is a lotta luck; how you do year-after-year is the where experience pays off. I've never won, but I'm usually up there, near the top-10! Some day . . .
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    Quote Originally Posted by LopenUupunut
    Thanks for another fun contest, hopefully the game will be back next year!
    Yes, it is always fun regardless the results.
    "A beautiful theory killed by an ugly fact."
    by Thomas Henry Huxley
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Well, it's not a rule. There were a couple of Polish athletes who I overestimated. I had Święty for gold, so it's not like I was overly cautious with picking Poles. I guess my problem is I'm usually too adventureous with my picks, when more conservative ones would do better.
    I was joking about italian results, but for me must be a rule.
    The more I underestimate italian athletes, the better is my rank in prediction games.
    I overestimated Tortu, Vallortigara, w4x400, Palmisano, Giorgi...
    4 medals, 0-0-4. In overall table we have 1-1-4 but the gold and the silver are not medals.
    That's enough to be depressed.... Luckily I'm also a swimming fan and we got 22 medals in Berlin.
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