Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #21
    Quote Originally Posted by ATK View Post
    Yesterday on the track there were a few good marks in distances races in the rain.
    Ajee Wilson 1:59.68 in the 800
    Her time was 1:59.27, followed by Natoya Goule in 1:59.43. See http://results.adidasboostboston.com/

    Goule's performance was notable because she's normally a frontrunner who gets eaten up by the pack on the second lap, but this time she joined Wilson in separating from the pack and closely challenged her all the way to the end.
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    #22
    The spacing of the 200m-hurdle races probably had a big influence on the outcome of the races. For example, Ebony Morrison took 9 steps between hurdles, which meant that she was able to get in rhythm similar to a 100m-hurdle race by using the same leg for the whole race, while the taller Shamier Little and Cassandra Tate, with superior 200 speed, could only take 8 steps between hurdles, requiring them to switch for every hurdle. If the spacing had been different and Morrison had been forced to switch I suspect the outcome would have been different.
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    #23
    Quote Originally Posted by ATK View Post
    The 200 I would say is still a bit more crowded with athletes like Bowie and Thompson who are young. The 400 has younger athletes as well, but with Felix likely moving out, no one is in the 49 mid to low range (yet) that SMU can get to.
    Agree here...but perhaps the more intriguing question at this point is which is her strongest event?

    Based off of what we have seen the 200 looks to be superior. While she struggles to execute the model necessary to spread the speed evenly over 400 she has no such issues in the 200.

    In the past the knock on the 200 would have been she does not get out fast enough in the first 100 but she has answered the call and improved that significantly. So far this season she has come into the homestretch in front or level with the front. This makes her extremely dangerous as she is almost invincible over the last 50m.

    Additionally, in terms of performace, every time she steps in the blocks for a 200 she is a threat to break 22s. Compare this to the 400. Sub 22s at 200 one would assume is equivalent to sub 49s at 400. Can we say she is a valid threat to break 49s every time she steps on the track? Based in performances to date the answer is obviously no.

    The evidence seems to weigh heavily. As of this moment the 200 has now surpassed her 400m ability.
    Last edited by scorpionking; 05-21-2018 at 05:27 PM.
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    #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    The spacing of the 200m-hurdle races probably had a big influence on the outcome of the races. For example, Ebony Morrison took 9 steps between hurdles, which meant that she was able to get in rhythm similar to a 100m-hurdle race by using the same leg for the whole race, while the taller Shamier Little and Cassandra Tate, with superior 200 speed, could only take 8 steps between hurdles, requiring them to switch for every hurdle. If the spacing had been different and Morrison had been forced to switch I suspect the outcome would have been different.
    Having run the 220LH in HS, I was at a huge advantage in that the hurdle spacing perfectly fit my sprint stride pattern. I'm sure I beat many superior athletes precisely because of that. My 24.7 beat the women at least . . .
    Senior year we went to the 180s, and then shortly after my graduation, they switched to the 300H, so I have TWO permanent records!
    Last edited by Atticus; 05-21-2018 at 05:30 PM.
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    #25
    Quote Originally Posted by scorpionking View Post
    .
    Additionally, in terms of performace, every time she steps in the blocks for a 200 she is a threat to break 22s. Compare this to the 400. Sub 22s at 200 one would assume is equivalent to sub 49s at 400. Can we say she is a valid threat to break 49s every time she steps on the track? Based in performances to date the answer is obviously no.
    Umm in 2017, she literally ran 49 Everytime she stepped on the track, outside of the London rounds and trip in the final.
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    #26
    Quote Originally Posted by ATK View Post
    Umm in 2017, she literally ran 49 Everytime she stepped on the track, outside of the London rounds and trip in the final.
    I said she didn't threaten sub 49 but you are talking sub 50 above..I would concede perhaps if the majority of 400s she ran last year were in the sub 49.5 range then I would say she Is threatening to break 49 flat every time out but that was not the case. One race, the diamond league final was the only one under 49.5.
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    #27
    Quote Originally Posted by scorpionking View Post
    I said she didn't threaten sub 49 but you are talking sub 50 above..I would concede perhaps if the majority of 400s she ran last year were in the sub 49.5 range then I would say she Is threatening to break 49 flat every time out but that was not the case. One race, the diamond league final was the only one under 49.5.
    Sorry your right, I interpreted sub 50.

    Sub 22 is not in the same leauge as sub 49 though IMO. We're talking about 1 athlete in the past 14 years who has gone sub 49 and maybe one other who really got very close (a Russian in Russia). Compared to I think about 7 or 8 in the same time frame who have run sub 22 multiple times, along with a host of others who have gotten extremely close (everyone from Jeter and SAFP to Candice McGrone)
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    #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ATK View Post
    Sorry your right, I interpreted sub 50.

    Sub 22 is not in the same leauge as sub 49 though IMO. We're talking about 1 athlete in the past 14 years who has gone sub 49 and maybe one other who really got very close (a Russian in Russia). Compared to I think about 7 or 8 in the same time frame who have run sub 22 multiple times, along with a host of others who have gotten extremely close (everyone from Jeter and SAFP to Candice McGrone)
    Fair enough but I addressed the frequency issue in another thread. Here is the exerpt:

    [Bear in mind, what's common may not necessarily reflect what's easiest. All of the best and brightest talent in the sprints the sport has seen have always gravitated to the the glamour events. That would be the 100 and 200m. The 400 being one of the toughest events on the track means very few are even brave enough to try. Usain Bolt comes to mind. Only recently we are seeing a resurgence of more high quality sprinters lining up in the 400. On the men's side we see such as WVN, SG, IM, LM. Before them we have had MJ, QW, TS. Switch to the women. The list is shorter..much shorter. Of all the women to break 49s only 4 of them show up on sub 22s lists. Koch, Kratochvilova, Perec and Brisco-Hooks. Two of those 4 barley made the list at 21.97 (Krats) and MJP(21.99). Where is the speed? Could the likes of Flojo, Gwen Torrence, Drechsler, Marion Jones, Grace Jackson, Irina Privalova with proper coaching all have broken the barrier if they had gone 2/4 instead of 1/2?]
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    #29
    I think Sanya Richards, a sub-11 sprinter, would have run sub-22 if she had run the 200 as often as Allyson Felix ran the 400.
    Last edited by jazzcyclist; 05-23-2018 at 04:04 AM.
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    #30
    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist View Post
    I think Sanya Richards, a sub-11 sprinter,]; would have run sub-22 if she had ran the 200 as often as Allyson Felix ran the 400.
    I feel she did run the 200 relatively frequently, but I generally agree. Maybe I'm missing some, but in her legendary 2009 season, did she only run the 200m once or twice at most?
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