Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    #71
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    I can see "places of honor" for people who bring stability to a 4x1 where passing is a huge issue, but when it comes to the 4x4, elemental speed pretty much says it all for me.
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    #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by gh View Post
    I can see "places of honor" for people who bring stability to a 4x1 where passing is a huge issue, but when it comes to the 4x4, elemental speed pretty much says it all for me.
    Yep, fastest four go.
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    #73
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    Except the four fastest in the trials may not necessarily be the ones in best shape at the OG. The relay coach should take that into consideration.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #74
    Quote Originally Posted by NotDutra5 View Post
    Right now no one has any idea of her shape.
    But we do...in London she ran a 48.6 lag, which is one second faster than her SB (and this is not the first time or the second she done it and hopefully not the last)


    Quote Originally Posted by NotDutra5 View Post
    So if the US has 4 runners running in the 49's out of the blocks and Felix checks in in the mid 50's you're kicking those a second faster off the team?
    A second sound like a boarder line case (see statistical analysis later) but if the fourth place athlete ran ~50 then definitely bring Allyson in.


    Quote Originally Posted by NotDutra5 View Post
    I prefer to put the runners who, at the time, earn the trip around the track rather than giving any runner a lap of honor.
    Allyson Felix earned her trip around the track by being the best ever relay runner. Obviously, it all depend on the gap between Felix and fourth place athlete. If this was up to me then:
    0.70 or less - go with Felix
    1.00 or more - go without Felix
    0.7-1.0 - wait with the decision to the Olympic games
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    #75
    Exhibit 1:
    Felix vs. SRR
    I think that we can agree that SRR is probably a better 400m runner than Felix. So how do these two women fair in the relay?
    Best split: Felix (47.72) SRR (48.43) gap -0.71
    Top 5 average: Felix 48.21 SRR 48.83 gap -0.62
    So, Felix is 0.6-0.7 better than the second best relay runner in this millennia.

    Exhibit 2:
    Felix vs. Koch
    So how is Felix doing against the greatest ever 400m runner of all time? Note, that Koch times in the 400m are more than 1.5sec faster than Felix's.
    Best 47.72 vs. 47.70 (gap +0.02)
    Top 5 average: 48.21 vs. 47.98 (gap +0.23).
    So a gap of 1.5 is reduced to less than quarter of a second.
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    #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by olorin View Post
    But we do...in London she ran a 48.6 lag, which is one second faster than her SB (and this is not the first time or the second she done it and hopefully not the last)

    A second sound like a boarder line case (see statistical analysis later) but if the fourth place athlete ran ~50 then definitely bring Allyson in.
    One second faster than her SB, yes, but that was with a running start, which is generally believed to cut ~0.7 off your time. Which means she effectively ran 0.3 better than in her best individual race of the season. That doesn't prove she should be selected over someone who's a full second faster individually.

    Also, while not denying AF is a great relay runner, I believe your comparison with MK and SRR overstates the case somewhat. In theie peak periods, the other two would typically run the anchor and receive the baton with a significant lead, so their legs were sort of victory laps, not necessarily all-out efforts.
    Było smaszno, a jaszmije smukwijne...
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    #77
    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    One second faster than her SB, yes, but that was with a running start, which is generally believed to cut ~0.7 off your time. Which means she effectively ran 0.3 better than in her best individual race of the season. That doesn't prove she should be selected over someone who's a full second faster individually.
    You are underestimating Felix advantage against her SB, which is ~1.4s and overestimating the effect on other women (which on average is much lower than 0.7). But even if we assume 0.7 then the difference is 0.8 between Allyson and the average athlete.

    I will try to do something more robust over the weekend with lots of boring statistics.
    Last edited by olorin; 11-23-2017 at 12:39 PM.
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    #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Powell View Post
    Except the four fastest in the trials may not necessarily be the ones in best shape at the OG. The relay coach should take that into consideration.
    Agree. That's why six are eligible..
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    #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf View Post
    Agree. That's why six are eligible..
    If Felix finishes 5th or 6th in the trials and she's rightfully in the pool but not in any individual event, she'll (maybe not rightfully) be running in the final. It won't matter what any of the other woman are running at the time.
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    #80
    This is a quick calculation that gives indication to the greatness of Felix in the relay. I define top athlete if their average best five results (in the open 400) is less than 50. Then, I require that a top athlete will complete in the relay at least six times of which four in non-starting position. The end result is that I left with 30 athletes.
    For each of these 30 athletes I calculated the difference between the average top 3 splits in the relays and the average top five results in the open 400 (so basically split - 400 times). he top 10 are:
    Allyson Felix...........-1.56
    Olga Nazarova II.......-1.13
    Grit Breuer............... -0.91
    Jarmila Kratochvílová.-0.79
    Sabine Busch............-0.77
    Jearl Miles-Clark........-0.64
    Petra Schersing.........-0.62
    Natalya Antyukh........-0.55
    Mariya Pinigina..........-0.51
    Francena McCorory....-0.48
    Novlene Williams-Mills -0.48
    Natasha Hastings.......-0.26
    Marita Koch.............. -0.25
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