Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Marlow
    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist
    How many times does a person have to get struck by lightning in order for us to conclude it's not coincidence?
    ??!!
    Who's side are you on? It IS coincidence if you get hit three times by lightning.
    Not necessarily because there are certain types of behavior that increases the likelihood of a person getting struck by lightning. Otherwise, they wouldn't shut down track meets for 30 minutes every time lightning strikes in the vicinity.
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist
    Quote Originally Posted by Marlow
    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist
    How many times does a person have to get struck by lightning in order for us to conclude it's not coincidence?
    ??!!
    Who's side are you on? It IS coincidence if you get hit three times by lightning.
    Not necessarily because there are certain types of behavior that increases the likelihood of a person getting struck by lightning. Otherwise, they wouldn't shut down track meets for 30 minutes every time lightning strikes in the vicinity.
    Unless you're talking about some guy who likes standing in the middle of open fields holding a lightning rod straight up in his hand (cue old joke about Lee Trevino, God, and one-irons!), one individual being struck again is a coincidence.

    'Cept this guy, of course! :wink:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Marlow
    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist
    Not necessarily because there are certain types of behavior that increases the likelihood of a person getting struck by lightning. Otherwise, they wouldn't shut down track meets for 30 minutes every time lightning strikes in the vicinity.
    Unless you're talking about some guy who likes standing in the middle of open fields holding a lightning rod straight up in his hand (cue old joke about Lee Trevino, God, and one-irons!), one individual being struck again is a coincidence.

    'Cept this guy, of course! :wink:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_Sullivan
    But my point is that maybe Uceny IS standing out in an open field holding a lightening and doesn't realize it.
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist
    But my point is that maybe Uceny IS standing out in an open field holding a lightening and doesn't realize it.
    I agree; her gait is putting her in jeopardy.
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #35
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    I think it was a damned fine weekend despite the injuries and withdrawals. However, the "distaff" side of things was generally one helluva lot more interesting than the alternative. Everyone's talking about the women's 800, 1500, 5000 and 10000 races not to mention the 100 hurdles and SRR's great comeback at 400m (even though she was second)! Not to mention what certain athletes were wearing (or not!). Give Emma Coburn credit for making her race look so easy. USA women are kicking some serious ass (OK, even if it's American).

    All of this just gets the juices flowing in anticipation of Lausanne and Paris! Hopefully Tori Bowie and Felix are OK.
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #36
    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235
    Quote Originally Posted by 18.99s
    I'm also joining the "it isn't a coincidence" crowd re: Morgan Uceny.

    Maybe her leg strength or sense of balance just isn't up to par with the other runners who get bumped and clipped without going down so easily.
    If she was hit three times before she went down it is probably not just balance.
    Yes, maybe something else like failing to react and move away after feeling the first hit. Or different positioning to avoid being hit in the first place. Whatever it is, it's something she and her coach need to figure out, or it will happen again soon.
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #37
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    [quote=18.99s]
    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235
    Quote Originally Posted by "18.99s":3e0xy951
    I'm also joining the "it isn't a coincidence" crowd re: Morgan Uceny.

    Maybe her leg strength or sense of balance just isn't up to par with the other runners who get bumped and clipped without going down so easily.
    If she was hit three times before she went down it is probably not just balance.
    Yes, maybe something else like failing to react and move away after feeling the first hit. Or different positioning to avoid being hit in the first place. Whatever it is, it's something she and her coach need to figure out, or it will happen again soon.[/quote:3e0xy951]

    I think that this is too strong a statement. Some times 'unusual' events just occur. See the new book How not to be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg (a UW-Madison Math prof, for instance on (among other things) over-interpreting small bits or selective bits of evidence (especially from small samples and three 'positives' are still pretty scant evidence).
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #38
    Quote Originally Posted by 26mi235

    Some times 'unusual' events just occur. See the new book How not to be Wrong by Jordan Ellenberg (a UW-Madison Math prof, for instance on (among other things) over-interpreting small bits or selective bits of evidence (especially from small samples and three 'positives' are still pretty scant evidence).
    Tell that ("three positives are still pretty scant evidence") to WADA.....or to doctors testing for HIV!!

    (Above statement by me implies or infers absolutely NO connection to Morgan Uceny's falls!!)
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #39
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    I take it that you are making a play on the word "positive" (or maybe you do not understand the term 'positives' in this context).
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    Re: 2014 USATF: w1500--Jenny Simpson 4:04.96
    #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marlow
    Quote Originally Posted by jazzcyclist
    But my point is that maybe Uceny IS standing out in an open field holding a lightening and doesn't realize it.
    I agree; her gait is putting her in jeopardy.
    Come on! I don't know exactly what took her down this time, but all three of her falls were at different locations on the track in entirely different "crowds", in entirely different positions in the crowds. Uceny has a wonderful, efficient stride that is indistinguishable from other women from the waist down. What matters is putting this behind her and getting back out on the track.
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