I imagine that NOP is hoping that the 10K will go something like Rupp's indoor races this year. A good pace, leaving him with 25% or so of the race to finish on his own, or with someone pushing him (like Chalanga).

However, if the good pacing doesn't materialize, or if Rupp has to lead from halfway or earlier because the pace is sagging, that open's him up to being sat on and out-kicked.