Facts, Not Fiction

 
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    Imagine the 100m times you can get in these conditions... Hopefully the breeze was under 2m/s.

    The combination of an actual temperature of 115 F (46 C) and a dew point temperature of 90 F (32 C) pushed the apparent temperature to 163 F (73 C) Friday afternoon local time. This reading would have been even higher if a breeze was not blowing, a factor in the calculation of the apparent temperature.
    http://www.accuweather.com/en/featur...er_ir/51091128
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    Now THATS hot.
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    A friend said it was 105F in Eugene sometime in the last week?!
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    The Onion looks at climate change:

    http://www.theonion.com/graphic/what...ook-2100-51225
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    Here in Santa Barbara, CA, the average daily high temperature for the month of Sept. has been 12 degrees higher than the historic (100 year plus) average and the low is 10 degrees higher than the historic average. Neither the highs nor lows for this Sept. have dipped below the historic average for even a single day. It's hot and dry!!!
    Main water reservoir for the whole county is at 17% capacity. When it gets below 10% the water becomes non-potable due to lake bottom residues.
    The anticipated Godzilla El Nino needs to deliver lotsa rain here.
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    Back in grad school when I was running with the Pomona College XC team (inland southern California), the last training week before Nationals (DIII, or whatever it was officially then) had six days in a row with lows of 44-46, and highs of 93-96, which is a huge swing to occur repeatedly with most of the change between 7:30 and 11 am. It was also piss-poor preparation for Nationals which were held in (north?) western Pennsylvania (if I remember correctly) where the high the day of the meet was 20.

    The problem with reporting weather as a proxy for climate is that it is essentially anecdotes that are not the "plural of data" because they are remembered for their unusual nature and/or for buttressing an opinion on climate. However, larger changes in climate are composed of systematic chances of only a degree or two, on a worldwide basis (it is generally much large at "high" latitudes).

    A note on climate change and some notable people who are "climate skeptics". A very prominent one is Freeman Dyson, a mathematical physicist. However, if you read what he writes (or at least the piece of his that I read), he is skeptical not about climate change or that humans cause is but he is skeptical about how well and accurately we can forecast it, how well we can 'backcast' the forecasting models, and what processes we should undertake to ameliorate it.

    I personally think it is almost certain that humans are a major contributor to climate change and that it will change more in the future as a result of past, current and almost certain near-future patterns of human activity. However, I do not think that I know remotely enough to know if it is worthwhile to expend a lot of resources to substantially alter the not-so-near (but not far-distant) future. And I am a co-author on a major paper in Nature on the economics effects of climate change written in 1989 and cited 20 years later as my professional associations "contribution of continuing quality" (if I remember the award citation correctly, which would have been worth a lot more to me if I was still in academia).
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    I guess it is time for my annual admonition to not worry about "climate change/global warming) It has been going on, with perodic reversals, for 12-15,000 years. Despite his ego, man did not cause it and there is nothing he can do about it.
    If the temperate zone migrates north (and south) over several thousand years, there will just be more arable farmland, coastal cities will move inland or disappear and there will be fewer polar bears and more brown/black/grizzly bears. And none of us will be affected. That's all.
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    Quote Originally Posted by lonewolf View Post
    I guess it is time for my annual admonition to not worry about "climate change/global warming)
    I'm glad you're not worried, because the vast majority of climatologists are gravely concerned. Even if GW weren't man-made, we are polluting the air, land and water at an alarming rate, so how 'bout we stop that? Coincidentally, it might 'miraculously' slow down the rate the Earth is heating up.
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    Although I greatly respect Lonewolf and I agree with his premise that mankind will adapt and adjust, I totally disagree with the idea that "none of us will be affected".
    That might be true if the climate changes were slow to develop.

    But short-term, if current trends persist where I live for even one more year we will see draconian water rationing, widespread agricultural and economic failures, loss of jobs, collapse of real estate markets and a mass exodus of population. And the effect will be felt way beyond the local community.
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    I recognize and emphathize with the serious water situation in SoCal (and other areas where conditions may be completely different). I acknowledge that Man's excesses can cause water shortages but droughts are Mama Earth at work. Man did not cause and cannot end them.
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