Facts, Not Fiction

 

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  1. While 38m maybe a stretch the 100 & 400 times way...

    While 38m maybe a stretch the 100 & 400 times way underestimate JJK's ability.
    In the 100 if we assume 0.1 loss for every hurdle, we get ~11.6 (if we use her 22.3 in the 200 we will get an...
  2. This is the 100 time (same order as the men...

    This is the 100 time (same order as the men decathlon).
    https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/united-states/jackie-joyner-kersee-62683

    And with 22.3 200 and 12.6 100h I am sure that 12.2 is extremely...
  3. Probably the WR as well. Let's say that she will...

    Probably the WR as well.
    Let's say that she will score:
    12.2 (12.06)
    7.2 (7.49)
    15.5 (16.00)
    1.88 (1.91)
    54.5 (53.60 & 55.05 in the 400h)
    12.7 (12.61)
    38.00 (No PB but she in better that Grey...
  4. On paper she should easily get the record as it...

    On paper she should easily get the record as it demonstrates in the table below

    Event Performance Score
    100m... 12.44sec..... 870
    Discus 40.98m......... 673
    Pole Vault 3.65m...... 824...
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    I have many thoughts on the topic as I was trying...

    I have many thoughts on the topic as I was trying to come up with a model to predict decathlon (and Heptathlon) scores few years ago (I think that I have few posts on the topic). Not to brag or...
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    Jack Lint in forth place broke his PB by 142...

    Jack Lint in forth place broke his PB by 142 points. What is special about Lint's performance is that his result his higher than his sum of PBs by 3 points (for comparison Erm was 223 points behind...
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    Warner against his decathlon PB (8795). A (*)...

    Warner against his decathlon PB (8795). A (*) means PB
    100* 10.12 (+46)
    HJ 7.67 (-35)
    SP* 15.34 (32)
    HJ 2.00 (-28)
    400 47.38 (16)
    110h 13.64 (-2)
    DT 47.23 (-2)
    PV 4.60 (-59)
    JT 63.03 (26)
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    Thanks El Toro. Really surprised by the...

    Thanks El Toro.

    Really surprised by the results - I was expecting a negative relation between the two especially for American athletes that are competing in the early 20' in the collegiate system....
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    Very good posts. Can you please check the...

    Very good posts.
    Can you please check the relation between age and the number of decathlons for non-American
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    A PB by more than 300 points to Zamzow (including...

    A PB by more than 300 points to Zamzow (including 5 individual PBs) that may compete for the third place in the US team to Doha.
    Her result in the JT (53.01) if for the best (according to my...
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    She also broke her PB by almost 2m in the JT. ...

    She also broke her PB by almost 2m in the JT.
    She can defiantly score well above 6,000 (already 5983PB this season, sum of PBs 6303).
    The bronze will be between her and two-three others athletes ,...
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    My two cents - 1. Harrison Williams had a good...

    My two cents -
    1. Harrison Williams had a good competition and on his way to score above 8000 when he had a disastrous JT (~`46m).
    2. Ghizzone failed to score in the PV - so this is out of nine...
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    GBR decathletes above 8,000 points since 2000 ...

    GBR decathletes above 8,000 points since 2000

    1 8603 Dean MACEY 12 DEC 1977 Edmonton (CAN) 08 AUG 2001

    2 8163 Ashley BRYANT 17 MAY 1991 Götzis (AUT) 28 MAY 2017

    3 8102 Daniel...
  14. Unfortunately, I am also not drunk or on drugs....

    Unfortunately, I am also not drunk or on drugs.
    So I can answer you that her mark in the LJ from her 4,580 is 6.48 and not 6.33
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    The only reason that Olga Nazarova II is so close...

    The only reason that Olga Nazarova II is so close to Felix is the insane 4*400 in Seoul. Still Felix is better by 0.87 from the average top-10 behind her. Grit Breuer was a wonderful relay runner...
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    This is a quick calculation that gives indication...

    This is a quick calculation that gives indication to the greatness of Felix in the relay. I define top athlete if their average best five results (in the open 400) is less than 50. Then, I require...
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    You are underestimating Felix advantage against...

    You are underestimating Felix advantage against her SB, which is ~1.4s and overestimating the effect on other women (which on average is much lower than 0.7). But even if we assume 0.7 then the...
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    Exhibit 1: Felix vs. SRR I think that we can...

    Exhibit 1:
    Felix vs. SRR
    I think that we can agree that SRR is probably a better 400m runner than Felix. So how do these two women fair in the relay?
    Best split: Felix (47.72) SRR (48.43) gap...
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    But we do...in London she ran a 48.6 lag, which...

    But we do...in London she ran a 48.6 lag, which is one second faster than her SB (and this is not the first time or the second she done it and hopefully not the last)




    A second sound like a...
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    Are you worried about Felix's shape in the...

    Are you worried about Felix's shape in the relay???
    I understand that many people doubt her ability to win gold in Tokyo (unfortunately I have to include myself among them), but questioning Felix...
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    Not a chance :-) {unless someone is willing to...

    Not a chance :-) {unless someone is willing to download all the data from IAAF}.
    Maybe I will do more statistical analyses for women.
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    Top 30 overall I think that the overall results...

    Top 30 overall
    I think that the overall results are quite sensible. USA and Russia are close in first and second. Ethiopia and Kenya domination in the long distances ensure them third and fourth....
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    Heptathlon From the most boring to the most...

    Heptathlon
    From the most boring to the most interesting event. Germany is first just ahead of GB and Russia in third scores 11 points. However, the last five years resurrection in multi-event, saw...
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    For the two posters that are still with me (AS...

    For the two posters that are still with me (AS and Regae) here are the completion of the rankings.
    Marathon
    As expected a close fight between Kenya and Ethiopia with both finishing with ~28...
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    With only three events to go (Marathon,...

    With only three events to go (Marathon, Heptathlon and 20K Walk) the USA leads by 70 points over Russia. I expect Russia to score very high in the walk, so the US can't lose lot of points in the...
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